The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Ricochet
4x $0.25
Sky Mandala
2x $0.34
Fraise Crane
3x $0.35
Earth Mandala
1x $0.70
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
30.0% $7.45
Sleeping Potion
30.0% $2.52
Avalanche
6.7% $2.24
Fuel Rod
6.7% $2.11
Teclu Burner
6.7% $1.98
Power Loader
6.7% $1.72
Max Win
$7.45 (+101.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.73 (+0.7%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+66.5%
Cost
$3.70
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.70
Ask Price EV $3.73 (+0.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.43 (-7.2%)
Ask Profit $0.03 (+0.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.27 (-7.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.29 (+7.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.03
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.27
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $7.45 (+101.3%)
Worst Case $1.45 (-60.7%)
Volatility +66.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$3.75
Avg Loss -$1.57
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.45 (-60.7%)
Std Dev $2.46
Avg Norm Float 0.4499
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 140h 56m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Ricochet
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Ricochet
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Ricochet
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Ricochet
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 24M 12S //TOTAL COST $3.70 //ASK PRICE EV $3.73 //BID PRICE EV $3.43 //ASK PROFIT $0.03 (+0.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.27 (-7.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $7.45 //VOLATILITY +66.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$7.45
+$3.75
+101.3%
$7.16
+$3.46
+93.5%
$0.29
3.9%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$2.52
-$1.18
-31.8%
$2.25
-$1.45
-39.2%
$0.27
10.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$2.24
-$1.46
-39.4%
$2.00
-$1.70
-45.9%
$0.24
10.8%
—
NUKE THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$2.11
-$1.59
-42.9%
$1.47
-$2.23
-60.3%
$0.64
30.4%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$1.98
-$1.72
-46.4%
$1.62
-$2.08
-56.2%
$0.36
18.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$1.72
-$1.98
-53.5%
$1.31
-$2.39
-64.6%
$0.41
23.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$1.50
-$2.20
-59.4%
$1.35
-$2.35
-63.5%
$0.15
10.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$1.45
-$2.25
-60.7%
$1.41
-$2.29
-61.9%
$0.04
3.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-10|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.31493,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.4475,
"optimistic_value": 7.29,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 7.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:41:12.309979Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.31493,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.5244999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.5,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:41.973109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.4499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ef297140e6ea",
"realistic_value": 1.5035,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T17:40:37.986995Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ef297140e6ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.4499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69c57b0e17a5",
"realistic_value": 1.72,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Power Loader",
"conservative_value": 1.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Power Loader (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T19:41:20.683614Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69c57b0e17a5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.4499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-13af73ca7ca5",
"realistic_value": 2.1115,
"optimistic_value": 2.01,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod",
"conservative_value": 1.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:38.742685Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-13af73ca7ca5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.4499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-460926660df2",
"realistic_value": 1.4545,
"optimistic_value": 1.43,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth",
"conservative_value": 1.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:46.682842Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-460926660df2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.4499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4a49656a91ca",
"realistic_value": 2.2415,
"optimistic_value": 2.21,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:34:55.828827Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4a49656a91ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.292435,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3932487f357b",
"realistic_value": 1.9835,
"optimistic_value": 1.98,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:36:45.587168Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3932487f357b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7e911aaa322f0526f7cc406b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "505109489448316424",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:00.017170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "511864723318787349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:00.017170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "501731789729326985",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:00.017170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "505109437005843932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:00.017170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "503983589619270235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:27.433717Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "492724590626378025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:25.541051Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789729082221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:25.541051Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:27.433717Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "519746188258624796",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:21.084633Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "518620288313571268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:57.798287Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-10:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 6.7% $3.35 Avalanche 6.7% $3.23 Power Loader 6.7% $2.04 Retrobution 6.7% $2.01 | $13.33 +90.7% | $8.49 +21.5% | 60.0% | +63.2% | $6.99 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 30.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Teclu Burner 6.7% $16.41 Avalanche 6.7% $7.22 Power Loader 6.7% $5.69 Retrobution 6.7% $5.26 | $26.79 +63.2% | $18.25 +11.2% | 60.0% | +48.8% | $16.41 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 30.0% $7.45 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.52 Teclu Burner 6.7% $1.98 Avalanche 6.7% $1.90 Fuel Rod 6.7% $1.78 Tiger Moth 6.7% $1.76 | $7.45 +112.8% | $3.69 +5.4% | 30.0% | +67.3% | $3.50 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.14 Teclu Burner 1.7% $1.98 Avalanche 1.7% $1.90 Fuel Rod 1.7% $1.78 Tiger Moth 1.7% $1.76 | $9.85 +137.9% | $5.57 +34.6% | 45.0% | +91.8% | $4.14 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 5.0% $3.35 Avalanche 5.0% $3.23 Power Loader 5.0% $2.04 Retrobution 5.0% $2.01 | $12.78 +65.1% | $9.32 +20.4% | 70.0% | +50.6% | $7.74 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 8.3% $3.35 Avalanche 8.3% $3.23 Power Loader 8.3% $2.04 Retrobution 8.3% $2.01 | $13.33 +111.5% | $7.47 +18.6% | 50.0% | +73.0% | $6.30 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 10.0% $3.35 Avalanche 10.0% $3.23 Power Loader 10.0% $2.04 Retrobution 10.0% $2.01 | $12.78 +130.2% | $6.34 +14.2% | 40.0% | +80.3% | $5.55 | — |