The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Ricochet
2x $1.00
Outbreak
2x $1.67
Warm Blooded
6x $2.27
↓
Possible Outputs
Retrobution
6.7% $34.98
Avalanche
6.7% $34.42
Exothermic
30.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
30.0% $24.63
Power Loader
6.7% $23.23
Fuel Rod
6.7% $17.86
Max Win
$34.98 (+38.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$25.01 (-0.7%)
Win %
43.3%
Volatility
+20.4%
Cost
$25.19
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $25.19
Ask Price EV $25.01 (-0.7%)
Bid Price EV $23.66 (-6.1%)
Ask Profit $-0.18 (-0.7%)
Bid Profit $-1.53 (-6.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.35 (+5.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.18
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.53
Risk
Win Probability 43.3%
Loss Probability 56.7%
Best Case $34.98 (+38.9%)
Worst Case $16.41 (-34.9%)
Volatility +20.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$4.03
Avg Loss -$3.39
Bottom 5% Outcome $16.41 (-34.9%)
Std Dev $5.14
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 141h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Ricochet
—
Minimal Wear
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Ricochet
—
Minimal Wear
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Outbreak
—
Factory New
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Outbreak
—
Factory New
$1.77 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$4.02 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$5.15 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 24M 04S //TOTAL COST $25.19 //ASK PRICE EV $25.01 //BID PRICE EV $23.66 //ASK PROFIT $-0.18 (-0.7%) //BID PROFIT $-1.53 (-6.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 43.3% //BEST CASE $34.98 //VOLATILITY +20.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$34.98
+$9.79
+38.9%
$33.70
+$8.51
+33.8%
$1.28
3.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$34.42
+$9.23
+36.7%
$33.09
+$7.90
+31.4%
$1.33
3.9%
—
SMALL WIN
30.0%
$26.79
+$1.60
+6.3%
$25.89
+$0.70
+2.8%
$0.90
3.3%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$24.63
-$0.56
-2.2%
$22.28
-$2.91
-11.6%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$23.23
-$1.96
-7.8%
$21.69
-$3.50
-13.9%
$1.54
6.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$17.86
-$7.33
-29.1%
$16.88
-$8.31
-33.0%
$0.98
5.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$16.93
-$8.26
-32.8%
$16.65
-$8.54
-33.9%
$0.28
1.6%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$16.41
-$8.78
-34.9%
$16.18
-$9.01
-35.8%
$0.23
1.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-10|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.048825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:27.288825Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.048825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ef297140e6ea",
"realistic_value": 34.979,
"optimistic_value": 34.93,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution",
"conservative_value": 33.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:47:53.069200Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ef297140e6ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69c57b0e17a5",
"realistic_value": 23.233999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 23.15,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Power Loader",
"conservative_value": 21.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:58:08.479167Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69c57b0e17a5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-13af73ca7ca5",
"realistic_value": 17.86,
"optimistic_value": 17.86,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod",
"conservative_value": 16.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:05.573082Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-13af73ca7ca5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-460926660df2",
"realistic_value": 16.9265,
"optimistic_value": 16.79,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth",
"conservative_value": 16.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:06.427216Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-460926660df2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4a49656a91ca",
"realistic_value": 34.423500000000004,
"optimistic_value": 34.21,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche",
"conservative_value": 33.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:34:05.516412Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4a49656a91ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.0453375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3932487f357b",
"realistic_value": 16.405,
"optimistic_value": 16.23,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner",
"conservative_value": 16.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:08:13.489468Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3932487f357b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7e911aaa322f0526f7cc406b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "529878490368630744",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:46.646162Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "498353924436709975",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:46.646162Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-c367da09c5bb",
"listing_id": "501731624158116113",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Outbreak",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c367da09c5bb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:42:48.991844Z"
},
{
"price": 1.77,
"skin_id": "skin-c367da09c5bb",
"listing_id": "491598524992165442",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Outbreak",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c367da09c5bb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:42:48.991844Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737055183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
},
{
"price": 4.02,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526500790836642953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
},
{
"price": 5.15,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "521997822478339278",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-10:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 6.7% $3.35 Avalanche 6.7% $3.23 Power Loader 6.7% $2.04 Retrobution 6.7% $2.01 | $13.33 +90.7% | $8.49 +21.5% | 60.0% | +63.2% | $6.99 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 30.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Teclu Burner 6.7% $16.41 Avalanche 6.7% $7.22 Power Loader 6.7% $5.69 Retrobution 6.7% $5.26 | $26.79 +63.2% | $18.25 +11.2% | 60.0% | +48.8% | $16.41 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 30.0% $7.45 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.52 Teclu Burner 6.7% $1.98 Avalanche 6.7% $1.90 Fuel Rod 6.7% $1.78 Tiger Moth 6.7% $1.76 | $7.45 +112.8% | $3.69 +5.4% | 30.0% | +67.3% | $3.50 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 30.0% $7.45 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.52 Avalanche 6.7% $2.24 Fuel Rod 6.7% $2.11 Teclu Burner 6.7% $1.98 Power Loader 6.7% $1.72 | $7.45 +101.3% | $3.73 +0.7% | 30.0% | +62.7% | $3.70 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.14 Teclu Burner 1.7% $1.98 Avalanche 1.7% $1.90 Fuel Rod 1.7% $1.78 Tiger Moth 1.7% $1.76 | $9.85 +137.9% | $5.57 +34.6% | 45.0% | +91.8% | $4.14 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 5.0% $3.35 Avalanche 5.0% $3.23 Power Loader 5.0% $2.04 Retrobution 5.0% $2.01 | $12.78 +65.1% | $9.32 +20.4% | 70.0% | +50.6% | $7.74 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 8.3% $3.35 Avalanche 8.3% $3.23 Power Loader 8.3% $2.04 Retrobution 8.3% $2.01 | $13.33 +111.5% | $7.47 +18.6% | 50.0% | +73.0% | $6.30 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 10.0% $3.35 Avalanche 10.0% $3.23 Power Loader 10.0% $2.04 Retrobution 10.0% $2.01 | $12.78 +130.2% | $6.34 +14.2% | 40.0% | +80.3% | $5.55 | — |