The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Ricochet
4x $0.24
Sky Mandala
2x $0.34
Fraise Crane
2x $0.35
Earth Mandala
1x $0.46
Warm Blooded
1x $0.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
30.0% $7.38
Sleeping Potion
30.0% $2.60
Teclu Burner
6.7% $1.98
Avalanche
6.7% $1.90
Fuel Rod
6.7% $1.78
Tiger Moth
6.7% $1.76
Max Win
$7.38 (+115.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.69 (+7.9%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+71.5%
Cost
$3.42
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.42
Ask Price EV $3.69 (+7.9%)
Bid Price EV $3.44 (+0.5%)
Ask Profit $0.27 (+7.9%)
Bid Profit $0.02 (+0.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.25 (+7.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.27
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.02
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $7.38 (+115.8%)
Worst Case $1.48 (-56.8%)
Volatility +71.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$3.96
Avg Loss -$1.31
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.48 (-56.8%)
Std Dev $2.44
Avg Norm Float 0.5107
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 139h 53m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Ricochet
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Ricochet
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Ricochet
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Ricochet
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 02S //TOTAL COST $3.42 //ASK PRICE EV $3.69 //BID PRICE EV $3.44 //ASK PROFIT $0.27 (+7.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.02 (+0.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $7.38 //VOLATILITY +71.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$7.38
+$3.96
+115.8%
$7.16
+$3.74
+109.4%
$0.22
3.0%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$2.60
-$0.82
-23.9%
$2.25
-$1.17
-34.2%
$0.35
13.5%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$1.98
-$1.44
-42.0%
$1.62
-$1.80
-52.6%
$0.36
18.3%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$1.90
-$1.52
-44.5%
$1.66
-$1.76
-51.5%
$0.24
12.5%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$1.78
-$1.64
-47.9%
$1.66
-$1.76
-51.5%
$0.12
6.9%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$1.76
-$1.66
-48.5%
$1.70
-$1.72
-50.3%
$0.06
3.5%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$1.54
-$1.88
-54.9%
$1.24
-$2.18
-63.7%
$0.30
19.7%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$1.48
-$1.94
-56.8%
$1.35
-$2.07
-60.5%
$0.13
8.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-10|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.357462,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.38,
"optimistic_value": 7.31,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 7.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:29:46.826428Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.357462,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.6015,
"optimistic_value": 2.57,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:48.251879Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.51066,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ef297140e6ea",
"realistic_value": 1.4769999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T12:10:04.337357Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ef297140e6ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.51066,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69c57b0e17a5",
"realistic_value": 1.5435,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Power Loader",
"conservative_value": 1.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Power Loader (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T05:56:02.474875Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69c57b0e17a5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.51066,
"output_skin_id": "skin-13af73ca7ca5",
"realistic_value": 1.783,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod",
"conservative_value": 1.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:48.783895Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-13af73ca7ca5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.51066,
"output_skin_id": "skin-460926660df2",
"realistic_value": 1.762,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:09.396707Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-460926660df2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.51066,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4a49656a91ca",
"realistic_value": 1.8969999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche",
"conservative_value": 1.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:49.887533Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4a49656a91ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.33192900000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3932487f357b",
"realistic_value": 1.9835,
"optimistic_value": 1.98,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:36:45.587168Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3932487f357b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7e911aaa322f0526f7cc406b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "519746022668094812",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:45:10.174653Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "505109489448316424",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:18.262611Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "511864723318787349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:18.262611Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "501731789729326985",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:18.262611Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "505109489448710228",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:54.819866Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "492724590626378025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:34:48.112225Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789729082221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:34:48.112225Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:54.819866Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "494976390476572746",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:12.357849Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "493850490549989488",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:12.837350Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-10:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 6.7% $3.35 Avalanche 6.7% $3.23 Power Loader 6.7% $2.04 Retrobution 6.7% $2.01 | $13.33 +90.4% | $8.49 +21.3% | 60.0% | +63.1% | $7.00 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 30.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Teclu Burner 6.7% $16.41 Avalanche 6.7% $7.22 Power Loader 6.7% $5.69 Retrobution 6.7% $5.26 | $26.79 +63.0% | $18.25 +11.1% | 60.0% | +48.8% | $16.43 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 30.0% $7.38 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.60 Avalanche 6.7% $2.24 Fuel Rod 6.7% $2.11 Teclu Burner 6.7% $1.98 Power Loader 6.7% $1.72 | $7.38 +107.3% | $3.73 +4.7% | 30.0% | +63.9% | $3.56 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.13 Teclu Burner 1.7% $1.98 Avalanche 1.7% $1.90 Fuel Rod 1.7% $1.78 Tiger Moth 1.7% $1.76 | $9.85 +135.7% | $5.56 +33.1% | 45.0% | +91.1% | $4.18 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.13 Teclu Burner 3.3% $1.98 Avalanche 3.3% $1.90 Fuel Rod 3.3% $1.78 Tiger Moth 3.3% $1.76 | $9.85 +153.2% | $5.14 +32.1% | 40.0% | +96.0% | $3.89 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.26 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 5.0% $3.35 Avalanche 5.0% $3.23 Power Loader 5.0% $2.04 Retrobution 5.0% $2.01 | $13.26 +69.1% | $9.49 +21.0% | 70.0% | +51.5% | $7.84 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 8.3% $3.35 Avalanche 8.3% $3.23 Power Loader 8.3% $2.04 Retrobution 8.3% $2.01 | $13.33 +111.9% | $7.47 +18.8% | 50.0% | +73.1% | $6.29 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.26 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 10.0% $3.35 Avalanche 10.0% $3.23 Power Loader 10.0% $2.04 Retrobution 10.0% $2.01 | $13.26 +136.3% | $6.44 +14.7% | 40.0% | +81.6% | $5.61 | — |