The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Ricochet
3x $0.60
Yorick
1x $0.66
Sky Mandala
1x $1.76
Earth Mandala
1x $2.24
Warm Blooded
4x $2.27
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
30.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
30.0% $24.63
Teclu Burner
6.7% $16.41
Avalanche
6.7% $7.22
Power Loader
6.7% $5.69
Retrobution
6.7% $5.26
Max Win
$26.79 (+63.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.25 (+11.2%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+58.4%
Cost
$16.41
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $16.41
Ask Price EV $18.25 (+11.2%)
Bid Price EV $17.15 (+4.5%)
Ask Profit $1.84 (+11.2%)
Bid Profit $0.74 (+4.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.10 (+6.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.84
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.74
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+63.2%)
Worst Case $3.80 (-76.8%)
Volatility +58.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 33.3%
Avg Win +$9.30
Avg Loss -$9.35
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.80 (-76.8%)
Std Dev $9.58
Avg Norm Float 0.0994
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 131h 38m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Ricochet
—
Minimal Wear
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Ricochet
—
Minimal Wear
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Yorick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Ricochet
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.76 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 24M 11S //TOTAL COST $16.41 //ASK PRICE EV $18.25 //BID PRICE EV $17.15 //ASK PROFIT $1.84 (+11.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.74 (+4.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +58.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$26.79
+$10.38
+63.2%
$25.89
+$9.48
+57.8%
$0.90
3.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$24.63
+$8.22
+50.1%
$22.28
+$5.87
+35.8%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$16.41
-$0.00
-0.0%
$16.18
-$0.23
-1.4%
$0.23
1.4%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$7.22
-$9.19
-56.0%
$6.71
-$9.70
-59.1%
$0.51
7.0%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$5.69
-$10.72
-65.3%
$5.09
-$11.32
-69.0%
$0.60
10.6%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$5.26
-$11.15
-68.0%
$5.07
-$11.34
-69.1%
$0.19
3.6%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$3.96
-$12.45
-75.8%
$3.70
-$12.71
-77.5%
$0.26
6.7%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$3.80
-$12.61
-76.8%
$3.73
-$12.68
-77.3%
$0.07
1.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-10|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.069573,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:27.288825Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.069573,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.09939,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ef297140e6ea",
"realistic_value": 5.258,
"optimistic_value": 5.23,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution",
"conservative_value": 5.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T19:39:26.917341Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ef297140e6ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.09939,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69c57b0e17a5",
"realistic_value": 5.6905,
"optimistic_value": 5.61,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Power Loader",
"conservative_value": 5.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Power Loader (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:30:55.839186Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69c57b0e17a5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.09939,
"output_skin_id": "skin-13af73ca7ca5",
"realistic_value": 3.964,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod",
"conservative_value": 3.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T22:41:59.442327Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-13af73ca7ca5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.09939,
"output_skin_id": "skin-460926660df2",
"realistic_value": 3.803,
"optimistic_value": 3.74,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth",
"conservative_value": 3.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:53:37.287531Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-460926660df2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.09939,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4a49656a91ca",
"realistic_value": 7.218,
"optimistic_value": 7.19,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T14:20:22.689027Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4a49656a91ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06460350000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3932487f357b",
"realistic_value": 16.405,
"optimistic_value": 16.23,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner",
"conservative_value": 16.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:08:13.489468Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3932487f357b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7e911aaa322f0526f7cc406b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "519746188258495880",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:46.646162Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "524249787961486131",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:46.646162Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-e62659639aba",
"listing_id": "517494336189383962",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Yorick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e62659639aba.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:47:47.204977Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "528752590516915365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:46.646162Z"
},
{
"price": 1.76,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "490472790737236515",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:03.360014Z"
},
{
"price": 2.24,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "523123888072205326",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:38.145538Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737055183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
},
{
"price": 2.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605724248646447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-10:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 6.7% $3.35 Avalanche 6.7% $3.23 Power Loader 6.7% $2.04 Retrobution 6.7% $2.01 | $13.33 +90.7% | $8.49 +21.5% | 60.0% | +63.2% | $6.99 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 30.0% $7.45 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.52 Teclu Burner 6.7% $1.98 Avalanche 6.7% $1.90 Fuel Rod 6.7% $1.78 Tiger Moth 6.7% $1.76 | $7.45 +112.8% | $3.69 +5.4% | 30.0% | +67.3% | $3.50 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 30.0% $7.45 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.52 Avalanche 6.7% $2.24 Fuel Rod 6.7% $2.11 Teclu Burner 6.7% $1.98 Power Loader 6.7% $1.72 | $7.45 +101.3% | $3.73 +0.7% | 30.0% | +62.7% | $3.70 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.14 Teclu Burner 1.7% $1.98 Avalanche 1.7% $1.90 Fuel Rod 1.7% $1.78 Tiger Moth 1.7% $1.76 | $9.85 +137.9% | $5.57 +34.6% | 45.0% | +91.8% | $4.14 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 5.0% $3.35 Avalanche 5.0% $3.23 Power Loader 5.0% $2.04 Retrobution 5.0% $2.01 | $12.78 +65.1% | $9.32 +20.4% | 70.0% | +50.6% | $7.74 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 8.3% $3.35 Avalanche 8.3% $3.23 Power Loader 8.3% $2.04 Retrobution 8.3% $2.01 | $13.33 +111.5% | $7.47 +18.6% | 50.0% | +73.0% | $6.30 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 10.0% $3.35 Avalanche 10.0% $3.23 Power Loader 10.0% $2.04 Retrobution 10.0% $2.01 | $12.78 +130.2% | $6.34 +14.2% | 40.0% | +80.3% | $5.55 | — |