The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Ricochet
4x $0.27
Fraise Crane
1x $0.48
Warm Blooded
4x $0.54
Earth Mandala
1x $0.70
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
30.0% $13.33
Sleeping Potion
30.0% $11.82
Teclu Burner
6.7% $3.35
Avalanche
6.7% $3.23
Power Loader
6.7% $2.04
Retrobution
6.7% $2.01
Max Win
$13.33 (+90.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.49 (+21.5%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+72.3%
Cost
$6.99
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.99
Ask Price EV $8.49 (+21.5%)
Bid Price EV $7.40 (+5.9%)
Ask Profit $1.50 (+21.5%)
Bid Profit $0.41 (+5.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.09 (+15.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.50
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.41
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $13.33 (+90.7%)
Worst Case $1.73 (-75.2%)
Volatility +72.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$5.58
Avg Loss -$4.62
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.73 (-75.2%)
Std Dev $5.05
Avg Norm Float 0.2138
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 140h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Ricochet
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Ricochet
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Ricochet
—
Minimal Wear
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Ricochet
—
Minimal Wear
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.06 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 24M 13S //TOTAL COST $6.99 //ASK PRICE EV $8.49 //BID PRICE EV $7.40 //ASK PROFIT $1.50 (+21.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.41 (+5.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $13.33 //VOLATILITY +72.3% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$13.33
+$6.34
+90.7%
$12.05
+$5.06
+72.4%
$1.28
9.6%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$11.82
+$4.83
+69.1%
$9.69
+$2.70
+38.6%
$2.13
18.0%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$3.35
-$3.64
-52.1%
$3.11
-$3.88
-55.5%
$0.24
7.1%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$3.23
-$3.76
-53.8%
$3.15
-$3.84
-54.9%
$0.08
2.5%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$2.04
-$4.95
-70.8%
$1.81
-$5.18
-74.1%
$0.23
11.3%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$2.01
-$4.98
-71.2%
$1.81
-$5.18
-74.1%
$0.20
10.1%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$1.84
-$5.16
-73.7%
$1.64
-$5.35
-76.5%
$0.20
10.6%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$1.73
-$5.26
-75.2%
$1.67
-$5.32
-76.1%
$0.06
3.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-10|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.149632,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.326500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 13.05,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:08.870701Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.149632,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.21376,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ef297140e6ea",
"realistic_value": 2.0135,
"optimistic_value": 2.01,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution",
"conservative_value": 1.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T09:34:38.286581Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ef297140e6ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.21376,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69c57b0e17a5",
"realistic_value": 2.04,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Power Loader",
"conservative_value": 1.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Power Loader (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T19:39:36.038962Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69c57b0e17a5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.21376,
"output_skin_id": "skin-13af73ca7ca5",
"realistic_value": 1.835,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T02:42:25.360231Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-13af73ca7ca5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.21376,
"output_skin_id": "skin-460926660df2",
"realistic_value": 1.7305,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth",
"conservative_value": 1.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:10.340352Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-460926660df2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.21376,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4a49656a91ca",
"realistic_value": 3.23,
"optimistic_value": 3.23,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche",
"conservative_value": 3.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:36:02.883294Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4a49656a91ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.138944,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3932487f357b",
"realistic_value": 3.3485,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner",
"conservative_value": 3.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:37:58.163803Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3932487f357b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7e911aaa322f0526f7cc406b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "501731789729326985",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:00.017170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "505109437005843932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:00.017170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "519746188258495880",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:46.646162Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "524249787961486131",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:46.646162Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "519746188258624796",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:21.084633Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494976390476381946",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:56.079211Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "518620288313571268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:57.798287Z"
},
{
"price": 1.06,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "525375688036846015",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:53.056487Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472738290593603",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:53.056487Z"
},
{
"price": 1.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "510738823413937978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:53.056487Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-10:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 30.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Teclu Burner 6.7% $16.41 Avalanche 6.7% $7.22 Power Loader 6.7% $5.69 Retrobution 6.7% $5.26 | $26.79 +63.2% | $18.25 +11.2% | 60.0% | +48.8% | $16.41 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 30.0% $7.45 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.52 Teclu Burner 6.7% $1.98 Avalanche 6.7% $1.90 Fuel Rod 6.7% $1.78 Tiger Moth 6.7% $1.76 | $7.45 +112.8% | $3.69 +5.4% | 30.0% | +67.3% | $3.50 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 30.0% $7.45 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.52 Avalanche 6.7% $2.24 Fuel Rod 6.7% $2.11 Teclu Burner 6.7% $1.98 Power Loader 6.7% $1.72 | $7.45 +101.3% | $3.73 +0.7% | 30.0% | +62.7% | $3.70 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.14 Teclu Burner 1.7% $1.98 Avalanche 1.7% $1.90 Fuel Rod 1.7% $1.78 Tiger Moth 1.7% $1.76 | $9.85 +137.9% | $5.57 +34.6% | 45.0% | +91.8% | $4.14 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 5.0% $3.35 Avalanche 5.0% $3.23 Power Loader 5.0% $2.04 Retrobution 5.0% $2.01 | $12.78 +65.1% | $9.32 +20.4% | 70.0% | +50.6% | $7.74 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 8.3% $3.35 Avalanche 8.3% $3.23 Power Loader 8.3% $2.04 Retrobution 8.3% $2.01 | $13.33 +111.5% | $7.47 +18.6% | 50.0% | +73.0% | $6.30 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 10.0% $3.35 Avalanche 10.0% $3.23 Power Loader 10.0% $2.04 Retrobution 10.0% $2.01 | $12.78 +130.2% | $6.34 +14.2% | 40.0% | +80.3% | $5.55 | — |