The Gamma Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Aerial
1x $0.47
Aeolian Light
6x $0.25
Creep
1x $0.28
Grip Tape
2x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
45.0% $5.85
Phobos
2.0% $3.50
Trace Lock
45.0% $2.24
Aristocrat
2.0% $2.20
Chopper
2.0% $2.12
Limelight
2.0% $1.86
Max Win
$5.85 (+45.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.87 (-3.6%)
Win %
45.0%
Volatility
+45.0%
Cost
$4.01
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.01
Ask Price EV $3.87 (-3.6%)
Bid Price EV $3.37 (-15.9%)
Ask Profit $-0.14 (-3.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.64 (-15.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.49 (+12.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.14
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.64
Risk
Win Probability 45.0%
Loss Probability 55.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+45.9%)
Worst Case $1.59 (-60.5%)
Volatility +45.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 53.0%
Avg Win +$1.84
Avg Loss -$1.76
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.12 (-47.0%)
Std Dev $1.81
Avg Norm Float 0.4424
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 139h 35m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Aerial
—
Well-Worn
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 32M 07S //TOTAL COST $4.01 //ASK PRICE EV $3.87 //BID PRICE EV $3.37 //ASK PROFIT $-0.14 (-3.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.64 (-15.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +45.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
45.0%
$5.85
+$1.84
+45.9%
$4.91
+$0.90
+22.4%
$0.94
16.1%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$3.50
-$0.51
-12.7%
$3.49
-$0.52
-13.0%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
45.0%
$2.24
-$1.77
-44.1%
$2.14
-$1.87
-46.6%
$0.10
4.6%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$2.20
-$1.81
-45.1%
$1.80
-$2.21
-55.1%
$0.40
18.3%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$2.12
-$1.89
-47.0%
$1.77
-$2.24
-55.9%
$0.35
16.6%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.86
-$2.15
-53.5%
$1.46
-$2.55
-63.6%
$0.40
21.7%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.59
-$2.42
-60.5%
$1.51
-$2.50
-62.3%
$0.08
4.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-13|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.331785,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.309666,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.243,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:01.172316Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.29197080000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d88fbf7ef8e1",
"realistic_value": 2.2024999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.15,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Aristocrat",
"conservative_value": 1.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:44:12.107900Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d88fbf7ef8e1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.176952,
"output_skin_id": "skin-78882aeeb9a7",
"realistic_value": 3.5,
"optimistic_value": 3.5,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Phobos",
"conservative_value": 3.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:37:05.366493Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78882aeeb9a7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.265428,
"output_skin_id": "skin-31a18fdabe59",
"realistic_value": 2.1235,
"optimistic_value": 2.12,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Chopper",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Chopper (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T15:03:43.399912Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-31a18fdabe59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.44238,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1b8d8987488f",
"realistic_value": 1.5855,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Reboot",
"conservative_value": 1.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Reboot (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:41.454044Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1b8d8987488f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.44238,
"output_skin_id": "skin-33872c48a8e5",
"realistic_value": 1.864,
"optimistic_value": 1.85,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Limelight",
"conservative_value": 1.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Limelight (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T05:47:24.501398Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33872c48a8e5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_dd08c9cb40ba53323b50d1fd",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-f7201f00d647",
"listing_id": "528753335313875745",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Aerial (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SG 553 | Aerial",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f7201f00d647.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:46.096633Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:03.795551Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488724825018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:03.795551Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "518620288313707888",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:08.121726Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "507361289452977565",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:27.519353Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620288313700148",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:09.170293Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "497228190141529805",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:27.519353Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "491598690698922002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:09.170293Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "525375635594525443",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:27.519353Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "490472790737062311",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:42:55.983347Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-13:1+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.59 Phobos 2.0% $3.71 Aristocrat 2.0% $3.25 Chopper 2.0% $2.36 Limelight 2.0% $1.95 | $12.25 +94.1% | $7.84 +24.2% | 45.0% | +62.5% | $6.31 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 45.0% $26.93 Aristocrat 2.0% $26.69 Trace Lock 45.0% $15.24 Phobos 2.0% $9.76 Chopper 2.0% $9.03 Reboot 2.0% $4.11 | $26.93 +52.6% | $20.04 +13.6% | 47.0% | +36.8% | $17.64 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.59 Phobos 4.0% $3.71 Aristocrat 4.0% $3.25 Chopper 4.0% $2.36 Limelight 4.0% $1.95 | $12.25 +101.1% | $7.26 +19.2% | 40.0% | +65.7% | $6.09 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.59 Phobos 6.0% $3.71 Aristocrat 6.0% $3.25 Chopper 6.0% $2.36 Limelight 6.0% $1.95 | $12.25 +106.5% | $6.68 +12.7% | 35.0% | +67.6% | $5.93 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Aristocrat 8.0% $26.69 Trace Lock 30.0% $15.24 Phobos 8.0% $9.81 Chopper 8.0% $9.03 Reboot 8.0% $4.12 | $26.93 +71.9% | $16.92 +8.1% | 38.0% | +49.7% | $15.66 | — |