The Gamma Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Aerial
1x $0.43
Aeolian Light
4x $0.25
Creep
1x $0.28
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
The Daily Deagle
3x $0.41
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
45.0% $5.85
Phobos
2.0% $3.50
Trace Lock
45.0% $2.40
Aristocrat
2.0% $2.20
Chopper
2.0% $2.12
Limelight
2.0% $1.98
Max Win
$5.85 (+62.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.94 (+9.2%)
Win %
45.0%
Volatility
+48.2%
Cost
$3.61
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.61
Ask Price EV $3.94 (+9.2%)
Bid Price EV $3.38 (-6.3%)
Ask Profit $0.33 (+9.2%)
Bid Profit $-0.23 (-6.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.56 (+15.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.33
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.23
Risk
Win Probability 45.0%
Loss Probability 55.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+62.1%)
Worst Case $1.61 (-55.4%)
Volatility +48.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 53.0%
Avg Win +$2.24
Avg Loss -$1.23
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.12 (-41.2%)
Std Dev $1.74
Avg Norm Float 0.4722
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 138h 42m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Aerial
—
Well-Worn
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 44S //TOTAL COST $3.61 //ASK PRICE EV $3.94 //BID PRICE EV $3.38 //ASK PROFIT $0.33 (+9.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.23 (-6.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +48.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
45.0%
$5.85
+$2.24
+62.1%
$4.91
+$1.30
+36.0%
$0.94
16.1%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$3.50
-$0.11
-3.0%
$3.49
-$0.12
-3.3%
$0.01
0.3%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$2.40
-$1.21
-33.5%
$2.14
-$1.47
-40.7%
$0.26
10.9%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$2.20
-$1.41
-39.0%
$1.80
-$1.81
-50.1%
$0.40
18.3%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$2.12
-$1.49
-41.2%
$1.77
-$1.84
-51.0%
$0.35
16.6%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.98
-$1.63
-45.2%
$1.90
-$1.71
-47.4%
$0.08
3.9%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.61
-$2.00
-55.4%
$1.52
-$2.09
-57.9%
$0.09
5.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-13|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.35416499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.33055399999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.402,
"optimistic_value": 2.36,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:33:01.934039Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.3116652,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d88fbf7ef8e1",
"realistic_value": 2.2024999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.15,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Aristocrat",
"conservative_value": 1.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:44:12.107900Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d88fbf7ef8e1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.188888,
"output_skin_id": "skin-78882aeeb9a7",
"realistic_value": 3.5,
"optimistic_value": 3.5,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Phobos",
"conservative_value": 3.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:37:05.366493Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78882aeeb9a7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.283332,
"output_skin_id": "skin-31a18fdabe59",
"realistic_value": 2.1235,
"optimistic_value": 2.12,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Chopper",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Chopper (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T15:03:43.399912Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-31a18fdabe59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.47222,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1b8d8987488f",
"realistic_value": 1.61,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Reboot",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Reboot (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T17:58:59.387624Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1b8d8987488f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.47222,
"output_skin_id": "skin-33872c48a8e5",
"realistic_value": 1.9774999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.96,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Limelight",
"conservative_value": 1.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Limelight (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T05:50:30.383513Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33872c48a8e5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_dd08c9cb40ba53323b50d1fd",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-f7201f00d647",
"listing_id": "500605837399097219",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Aerial (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SG 553 | Aerial",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f7201f00d647.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:13.905164Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:41.614961Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488724825018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:41.614961Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "518620288313707888",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:47:50.346176Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "507361289452977565",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:22.497166Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620288313700148",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:35.078283Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "528753335313874305",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:12.515445Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "490472738292948867",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:12.515445Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "497228190141160121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:22.497166Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "491598690699020822",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:12.515445Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-13:1+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.78 Phobos 2.0% $3.71 Aristocrat 2.0% $3.24 Chopper 2.0% $2.36 Limelight 2.0% $1.98 | $12.25 +91.9% | $7.93 +24.2% | 45.0% | +60.6% | $6.38 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 45.0% $27.20 Aristocrat 2.0% $26.69 Trace Lock 45.0% $15.09 Phobos 2.0% $9.81 Chopper 2.0% $9.03 Reboot 2.0% $4.12 | $27.20 +54.2% | $20.10 +13.9% | 47.0% | +37.8% | $17.64 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 45.0% $5.85 Phobos 2.0% $3.50 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.40 Aristocrat 2.0% $2.20 Chopper 2.0% $2.12 Limelight 2.0% $1.86 | $5.85 +59.0% | $3.94 +7.0% | 45.0% | +46.5% | $3.68 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.59 Phobos 4.0% $3.71 Aristocrat 4.0% $3.24 Chopper 4.0% $2.36 Limelight 4.0% $1.98 | $12.25 +99.4% | $7.26 +18.2% | 40.0% | +65.2% | $6.14 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.78 Phobos 6.0% $3.71 Aristocrat 6.0% $3.24 Chopper 6.0% $2.36 Limelight 6.0% $1.98 | $12.25 +106.5% | $6.75 +13.8% | 35.0% | +66.9% | $5.93 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Aristocrat 8.0% $26.69 Trace Lock 30.0% $15.24 Phobos 8.0% $9.81 Chopper 8.0% $9.03 Reboot 8.0% $4.12 | $26.93 +71.9% | $16.92 +8.1% | 38.0% | +49.7% | $15.66 | — |