The Gamma Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Iron Clad
1x $1.09
Grip Tape
3x $0.99
Aeolian Light
3x $1.92
The Daily Deagle
3x $3.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
45.0% $26.93
Aristocrat
2.0% $26.69
Reboot
2.0% $23.02
Trace Lock
45.0% $15.24
Limelight
2.0% $14.66
Phobos
2.0% $9.76
Max Win
$26.93 (+4.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$20.64 (-19.9%)
Win %
47.0%
Volatility
+23.8%
Cost
$25.78
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $25.78
Ask Price EV $20.64 (-19.9%)
Bid Price EV $19.51 (-24.3%)
Ask Profit $-5.14 (-19.9%)
Bid Profit $-6.27 (-24.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.13 (+4.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$5.14
Bid Slippage Buffer -$6.27
Risk
Win Probability 47.0%
Loss Probability 53.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+4.4%)
Worst Case $9.03 (-65.0%)
Volatility +23.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 51.0%
Avg Win +$1.14
Avg Loss -$10.71
Bottom 5% Outcome $14.66 (-43.1%)
Std Dev $6.13
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 139h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Iron Clad
—
Minimal Wear
$1.09 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.99 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.25 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.42 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$4.42 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$5.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 31M 18S //TOTAL COST $25.78 //ASK PRICE EV $20.64 //BID PRICE EV $19.51 //ASK PROFIT $-5.14 (-19.9%) //BID PROFIT $-6.27 (-24.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 47.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +23.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
SMALL WIN
45.0%
$26.93
+$1.15
+4.4%
$26.63
+$0.85
+3.3%
$0.30
1.1%
—
PAPER WIN
2.0%
$26.69
+$0.91
+3.5%
$25.21
-$0.57
-2.2%
$1.48
5.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$23.02
-$2.76
-10.7%
$22.85
-$2.93
-11.4%
$0.17
0.7%
—
NUKE
45.0%
$15.24
-$10.54
-40.9%
$13.15
-$12.63
-49.0%
$2.09
13.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$14.66
-$11.12
-43.1%
$14.03
-$11.75
-45.6%
$0.63
4.3%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$9.76
-$16.02
-62.1%
$9.48
-$16.30
-63.2%
$0.28
2.9%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$9.03
-$16.75
-65.0%
$8.75
-$17.03
-66.1%
$0.28
3.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-13|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.052462499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.048964999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 15.2405,
"optimistic_value": 14.81,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:45:00.188789Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.046167,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d88fbf7ef8e1",
"realistic_value": 26.6855,
"optimistic_value": 26.5,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Aristocrat",
"conservative_value": 25.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Aristocrat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:36:42.839545Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d88fbf7ef8e1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.02798,
"output_skin_id": "skin-78882aeeb9a7",
"realistic_value": 9.7605,
"optimistic_value": 9.75,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Phobos",
"conservative_value": 9.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Phobos (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:04.824641Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78882aeeb9a7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.04197,
"output_skin_id": "skin-31a18fdabe59",
"realistic_value": 9.025500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 8.98,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Chopper",
"conservative_value": 8.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Chopper (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:21.232804Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-31a18fdabe59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1b8d8987488f",
"realistic_value": 23.017500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 23,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Reboot",
"conservative_value": 22.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Reboot (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:19.249065Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1b8d8987488f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-33872c48a8e5",
"realistic_value": 14.657,
"optimistic_value": 14.58,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Limelight",
"conservative_value": 14.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Limelight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:49:58.300018Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33872c48a8e5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_dd08c9cb40ba53323b50d1fd",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.09,
"skin_id": "skin-6736df07aec5",
"listing_id": "512990736598885211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Iron Clad",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6736df07aec5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:38.234721Z"
},
{
"price": 0.99,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "652600943945535924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:47.900006Z"
},
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490549357652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:37.974410Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520872088106386248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:37.974410Z"
},
{
"price": 2.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "490472625090998583",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:37.974410Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "490472625090168999",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:45.889110Z"
},
{
"price": 2.42,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "505109323867537292",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:45.889110Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:26.636438Z"
},
{
"price": 4.42,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "503982792732383167",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:26.636438Z"
},
{
"price": 5.35,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "503982792734154079",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:26.636438Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-13:1+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.59 Phobos 2.0% $3.71 Aristocrat 2.0% $3.25 Chopper 2.0% $2.36 Limelight 2.0% $1.95 | $12.25 +94.1% | $7.84 +24.2% | 45.0% | +62.5% | $6.31 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 45.0% $26.93 Aristocrat 2.0% $26.69 Trace Lock 45.0% $15.24 Phobos 2.0% $9.76 Chopper 2.0% $9.03 Reboot 2.0% $4.11 | $26.93 +52.6% | $20.04 +13.6% | 47.0% | +36.8% | $17.64 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.59 Phobos 4.0% $3.71 Aristocrat 4.0% $3.25 Chopper 4.0% $2.36 Limelight 4.0% $1.95 | $12.25 +101.1% | $7.26 +19.2% | 40.0% | +65.7% | $6.09 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.59 Phobos 6.0% $3.71 Aristocrat 6.0% $3.25 Chopper 6.0% $2.36 Limelight 6.0% $1.95 | $12.25 +106.5% | $6.68 +12.7% | 35.0% | +67.6% | $5.93 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Aristocrat 8.0% $26.69 Trace Lock 30.0% $15.24 Phobos 8.0% $9.81 Chopper 8.0% $9.03 Reboot 8.0% $4.12 | $26.93 +71.9% | $16.92 +8.1% | 38.0% | +49.7% | $15.66 | — |