The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Irezumi
2x $0.11
Light Box
1x $0.14
2A2F
5x $0.43
Late Night Transit
1x $0.51
Green Line
1x $0.55
↓
Possible Outputs
Derailment
23.3% $7.13
Charged Up
23.3% $4.93
Whiteout
23.3% $4.09
Block-18
6.0% $0.77
Etch Lord
6.0% $0.72
Analog Input
6.0% $0.71
Max Win
$7.13 (+86.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.98 (+3.8%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+62.7%
Cost
$3.83
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.83
Ask Price EV $3.98 (+3.8%)
Bid Price EV $3.48 (-9.1%)
Ask Profit $0.15 (+3.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.35 (-9.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.49 (+12.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.15
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.35
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $7.13 (+86.1%)
Worst Case $0.59 (-84.5%)
Volatility +62.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$1.55
Avg Loss -$3.14
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.59 (-84.5%)
Std Dev $2.40
Avg Norm Float 0.4591
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 153h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 06S //TOTAL COST $3.83 //ASK PRICE EV $3.98 //BID PRICE EV $3.48 //ASK PROFIT $0.15 (+3.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.35 (-9.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $7.13 //VOLATILITY +62.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
23.3%
$7.13
+$3.30
+86.1%
$6.40
+$2.57
+67.1%
$0.73
10.2%
—
PAPER WIN
23.3%
$4.93
+$1.10
+28.6%
$3.75
-$0.08
-2.1%
$1.18
23.9%
—
SMALL WIN
23.3%
$4.09
+$0.26
+6.9%
$3.99
+$0.16
+4.2%
$0.10
2.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.77
-$3.06
-79.9%
$0.71
-$3.12
-81.5%
$0.06
7.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.72
-$3.11
-81.2%
$0.61
-$3.22
-84.1%
$0.11
15.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.71
-$3.12
-81.5%
$0.61
-$3.22
-84.1%
$0.10
14.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.66
-$3.17
-82.8%
$0.57
-$3.26
-85.1%
$0.09
13.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.59
-$3.24
-84.5%
$0.55
-$3.28
-85.6%
$0.04
7.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.32136299999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.4915446,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 4.0945,
"optimistic_value": 4.07,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 3.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:27.599108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.45909,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 4.9254999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 4.88,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 3.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T00:12:33.464100Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.45909,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.594,
"optimistic_value": 0.58,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:28.400600Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.30845109375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 0.771,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:11:50.072397Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.45909,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.72,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:04.657047Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.45909,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.66,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T03:25:27.486591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.2841124374,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:14:31.205931Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_efffa8a5152366ccdec0fc37",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "492724643508131877",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:01.920153Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "502857689862068092",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:01.920153Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "506235442367962728",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:49.619997Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "519746241188768084",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:09.332337Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "523123940968869226",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:09.332337Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "506235442367107116",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:09.332337Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "515242641502083553",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:09.332337Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "492724590627207213",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:01:39.988067Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "502857689862614932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:09.332337Z"
},
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "492724643507569557",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:36.744063Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:3+collection-set-train-2025:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.68 Charged Up 23.3% $7.43 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.78 Block-18 6.0% $0.77 Hybrid 6.0% $0.76 | $9.68 +101.3% | $5.88 +22.3% | 70.0% | +62.4% | $4.81 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $41.07 Charged Up 23.3% $22.39 Block-18 6.0% $4.18 Analog Input 6.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 6.0% $1.66 | $64.86 +152.9% | $30.66 +19.5% | 46.7% | +82.9% | $25.65 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Charged Up 23.3% $63.69 Derailment 23.3% $41.07 Etch Lord 6.0% $10.49 Just Smile 6.0% $9.45 Hybrid 6.0% $8.10 | $64.86 +78.5% | $41.69 +14.8% | 70.0% | +56.9% | $36.33 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Charged Up 23.3% $5.48 Whiteout 23.3% $5.26 Block-18 6.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.73 Hybrid 6.0% $0.71 | $7.13 +75.2% | $4.39 +7.8% | 70.0% | +52.8% | $4.07 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.68 Charged Up 16.7% $7.43 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.78 Block-18 10.0% $0.77 Just Smile 10.0% $0.73 | $9.68 +188.2% | $4.40 +31.0% | 50.0% | +100.5% | $3.36 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.68 Charged Up 20.0% $7.43 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.78 Block-18 8.0% $0.77 Just Smile 8.0% $0.73 | $9.68 +135.6% | $5.14 +25.0% | 60.0% | +79.1% | $4.11 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $41.07 Charged Up 13.3% $22.21 Block-18 12.0% $4.18 Analog Input 12.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 12.0% $1.66 | $64.86 +327.3% | $18.52 +22.0% | 40.0% | +138.8% | $15.18 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $41.07 Charged Up 10.0% $22.21 Block-18 14.0% $4.18 Analog Input 14.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 14.0% $1.66 | $64.86 +437.4% | $14.49 +20.1% | 30.0% | +162.9% | $12.07 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Derailment 6.7% $14.74 Whiteout 6.7% $9.68 Charged Up 6.7% $7.43 Block-18 16.0% $1.43 Analog Input 16.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.78 | $14.74 +462.6% | $2.87 +9.5% | 20.0% | +150.0% | $2.62 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  20.0% $294.44 Jawbreaker  20.0% $39.44 Black Lotus  20.0% $26.65 Olympus  20.0% $15.30 | $597.10 +296.9% | $194.59 +29.3% | 40.0% | +150.5% | $150.46 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  10.0% $663.30 Inheritance  45.0% $102.58 Chrome Cannon  45.0% $60.71 | $663.30 +471.7% | $139.81 +20.5% | 10.0% | +151.4% | $116.03 | — |