The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items

Factory New +5.6%Field-Tested +22.0%Minimal Wear +15.6%Well-Worn +5.6%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New

Inputs

Motorized

1x $2.50

Slag

1x $2.83

Dark Sigil

1x $3.07

2A2F

3x $2.69

Run Run Run

1x $3.52

Late Night Transit

1x $4.00

↓

Possible Outputs

Whiteout

23.3% $64.86

Charged Up

23.3% $63.69

Derailment

23.3% $41.50

Etch Lord

6.0% $10.49

Just Smile

6.0% $9.45

Hybrid

6.0% $8.10

Max Win

$64.86 (+64.0%)

EV (ROI %)

$41.79 (+5.6%)

Win %

70.0%

Volatility

+62.0%

Cost

$39.56

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $39.56

Ask Price EV $41.79 (+5.6%)

Bid Price EV $39.49 (-0.2%)

Ask Profit $2.23 (+5.6%)

Bid Profit $-0.07 (-0.2%)

Liquidity Gap $2.31 (+5.8%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.23

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.07

Risk

Win Probability 70.0%

Loss Probability 30.0%

Best Case $64.86 (+64.0%)

Worst Case $2.99 (-92.4%)

Volatility +62.0%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%

Avg Win +$17.12

Avg Loss -$32.52

Bottom 5% Outcome $2.99 (-92.4%)

Std Dev $24.52

Avg Norm Float 0.0700

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 22m

Oldest Output Price 151h 58m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

UMP-45 | Motorized

—

Factory New

$2.50 Float: HIDDEN

Tec-9 | Slag

—

Factory New

$2.83 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Dark Sigil

—

Factory New

$3.07 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Minimal Wear

$2.69 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Run Run Run

—

Minimal Wear

$3.52 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

—

Minimal Wear

$4.00 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Minimal Wear

$4.19 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Minimal Wear

$5.00 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Minimal Wear

$5.23 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Minimal Wear

$6.53 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 57M 46S //TOTAL COST $39.56 //ASK PRICE EV $41.79 //BID PRICE EV $39.49 //ASK PROFIT $2.23 (+5.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.07 (-0.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +62.0% //

Possible Outputs · 8

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.048979,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 41.498,
      "optimistic_value": 41.4,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 40.19,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:40.143491Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.1257718,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 64.8635,
      "optimistic_value": 64.79,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 61.61,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.06997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 63.693,
      "optimistic_value": 62.72,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 58.44,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:25.585598Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.06997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
      "realistic_value": 8.1,
      "optimistic_value": 8.1,
      "output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
      "conservative_value": 8.09,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:38.482350Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.04701109375,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
      "realistic_value": 4.18,
      "optimistic_value": 4.18,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
      "conservative_value": 4.17,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:37.383942Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.06997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
      "realistic_value": 10.493500000000001,
      "optimistic_value": 10.49,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
      "conservative_value": 10.32,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:08.226067Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.06997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
      "realistic_value": 9.4505,
      "optimistic_value": 9.44,
      "output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
      "conservative_value": 9.4,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:07.015624Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.0433016342,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
      "realistic_value": 2.99,
      "optimistic_value": 2.99,
      "output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
      "conservative_value": 2.96,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:26.301033Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_efffa8a5152366ccdec0fc37",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 2.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
      "listing_id": "523123888072506466",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:57.768258Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.83,
      "skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
      "listing_id": "506234592360092376",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:21.021544Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.07,
      "skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
      "listing_id": "518620341243397828",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
      "name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:24.310762Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.69,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "523123940968972186",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:39.890026Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
      "listing_id": "529879287551292084",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:51.158892Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "490472790738021783",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:13.287968Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "642467916639686441",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:39.890026Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "508487189340410930",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:59.850225Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "528753335313592389",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:39.890026Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 6.53,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "507361289453385697",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:59.850225Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:3+collection-set-train-2025:7"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 23.3% $9.68 Charged Up 23.3% $7.44 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.79 Block-18 6.0% $0.77 Hybrid 6.0% $0.76	$9.68 +100.8%	$5.88 +22.0%	70.0%	+62.2%	$4.82	—
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $41.50 Charged Up 23.3% $22.67 Block-18 6.0% $4.18 Analog Input 6.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 6.0% $1.66	$64.86 +143.2%	$30.82 +15.6%	46.7%	+79.8%	$26.67	—
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Charged Up 23.3% $5.48 Whiteout 23.3% $5.17 Block-18 6.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.73 Hybrid 6.0% $0.71	$7.13 +72.6%	$4.36 +5.6%	70.0%	+51.9%	$4.13	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 13.3% $9.68 Charged Up 13.3% $7.44 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.80 Block-18 12.0% $0.77 Hybrid 12.0% $0.76	$9.68 +253.3%	$3.67 +34.0%	40.0%	+122.8%	$2.74	—
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 16.7% $9.68 Charged Up 16.7% $7.44 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.79 Block-18 10.0% $0.77 Hybrid 10.0% $0.76	$9.68 +189.8%	$4.41 +31.9%	50.0%	+100.9%	$3.34	—
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 10.0% $9.68 Charged Up 10.0% $7.44 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Etch Lord 14.0% $0.80 Block-18 14.0% $0.77 Hybrid 14.0% $0.76	$9.68 +322.7%	$2.94 +28.3%	30.0%	+140.1%	$2.29	—
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 20.0% $9.68 Charged Up 20.0% $7.43 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Block-18 8.0% $0.77 Hybrid 8.0% $0.72 Just Smile 8.0% $0.72	$9.68 +138.4%	$5.13 +26.4%	60.0%	+80.3%	$4.06	—
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Derailment 6.7% $14.73 Whiteout 6.7% $9.68 Charged Up 6.7% $7.44 Block-18 16.0% $1.36 Analog Input 16.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.80	$14.73 +464.3%	$2.87 +10.1%	20.0%	+150.5%	$2.61	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 25.0% $294.44 Jawbreaker 16.7% $39.47 Black Lotus 16.7% $26.65 Olympus 16.7% $15.30	$597.10 +218.0%	$236.46 +25.9%	50.0%	+125.2%	$187.79	—
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear	LongDog 20.0% $663.30 Inheritance 40.0% $102.58 Chrome Cannon 40.0% $60.71	$663.30 +313.7%	$197.98 +23.5%	20.0%	+145.6%	$160.35	—