The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Irezumi
1x $0.13
Light Box
2x $0.14
Late Night Transit
2x $0.50
Green Line
2x $0.59
Run Run Run
1x $0.73
2A2F
2x $0.73
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
23.3% $9.67
Charged Up
23.3% $7.45
Derailment
23.3% $7.13
Just Smile
6.0% $0.78
Block-18
6.0% $0.77
Etch Lord
6.0% $0.75
Max Win
$9.67 (+99.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.88 (+21.2%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+72.1%
Cost
$4.85
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.85
Ask Price EV $5.88 (+21.2%)
Bid Price EV $5.65 (+16.5%)
Ask Profit $1.03 (+21.2%)
Bid Profit $0.80 (+16.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.23 (+4.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.03
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.80
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $9.67 (+99.5%)
Worst Case $0.66 (-86.5%)
Volatility +72.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$3.23
Avg Loss -$4.11
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.66 (-86.5%)
Std Dev $3.50
Avg Norm Float 0.3399
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 5m
Oldest Output Price 133h 20m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Field-Tested
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Field-Tested
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Field-Tested
$0.77 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 51M 32S //TOTAL COST $4.85 //ASK PRICE EV $5.88 //BID PRICE EV $5.65 //ASK PROFIT $1.03 (+21.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.80 (+16.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $9.67 //VOLATILITY +72.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$9.67
+$4.82
+99.5%
$9.66
+$4.81
+99.2%
$0.01
0.1%
—
BIG WIN
23.3%
$7.45
+$2.60
+53.6%
$7.29
+$2.44
+50.3%
$0.16
2.2%
—
WIN
23.3%
$7.13
+$2.28
+47.0%
$6.40
+$1.55
+32.0%
$0.73
10.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.78
-$4.07
-83.9%
$0.71
-$4.14
-85.4%
$0.07
9.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.77
-$4.08
-84.1%
$0.71
-$4.14
-85.4%
$0.06
7.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.75
-$4.10
-84.4%
$0.69
-$4.16
-85.8%
$0.06
8.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.72
-$4.13
-85.1%
$0.66
-$4.19
-86.4%
$0.06
8.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.66
-$4.19
-86.5%
$0.60
-$4.25
-87.6%
$0.06
8.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.237958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.3795436,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 9.6735,
"optimistic_value": 9.67,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 9.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:24.648265Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.33994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 7.4505,
"optimistic_value": 7.44,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 7.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:29.859234Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.33994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.721,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:57.763591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.22839718750000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 0.771,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:11:50.072397Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.33994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.7545,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:24:08.953220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.33994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.78,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:09.193357Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.2103752684,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 0.655,
"optimistic_value": 0.62,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:59.449814Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_efffa8a5152366ccdec0fc37",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "512990789045330051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:13.343605Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "490472738292831831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:07.704379Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514115891842488654",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:07.704379Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "523123888073168722",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:25.545727Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "510739041953634622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:25.545727Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "497228243055307133",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:08.844360Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "527627540537740676",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:08.844360Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "517494441497802166",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:58.751845Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "517494441497798638",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:05.254904Z"
},
{
"price": 0.77,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "516368488726808510",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:05.254904Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:3+collection-set-train-2025:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $42.56 Charged Up 23.3% $22.67 Block-18 6.0% $4.18 Analog Input 6.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 6.0% $1.71 | $64.86 +152.6% | $31.08 +21.0% | 46.7% | +83.2% | $25.68 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Charged Up 23.3% $63.69 Derailment 23.3% $42.56 Etch Lord 6.0% $10.77 Just Smile 6.0% $9.45 Hybrid 6.0% $8.10 | $64.86 +69.0% | $42.06 +9.6% | 70.0% | +53.5% | $38.38 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.45 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Just Smile 10.0% $0.78 Block-18 10.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.75 | $9.67 +187.9% | $4.41 +31.3% | 50.0% | +100.3% | $3.36 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.68 Charged Up 13.3% $7.45 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Just Smile 12.0% $0.78 Block-18 12.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.73 | $9.68 +242.0% | $3.67 +29.7% | 40.0% | +119.1% | $2.83 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.68 Charged Up 20.0% $7.44 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Block-18 8.0% $0.77 Hybrid 8.0% $0.76 Just Smile 8.0% $0.75 | $9.68 +137.3% | $5.14 +26.1% | 60.0% | +79.7% | $4.08 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $41.90 Charged Up 10.0% $22.67 Block-18 14.0% $4.12 Analog Input 14.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 14.0% $1.62 | $64.86 +417.7% | $14.60 +16.6% | 30.0% | +157.9% | $12.53 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $42.56 Charged Up 6.7% $22.67 Block-18 16.0% $4.18 Analog Input 16.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 16.0% $1.71 | $64.86 +590.0% | $10.59 +12.7% | 20.0% | +185.1% | $9.40 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  25.0% $294.44 Jawbreaker  16.7% $39.46 Black Lotus  16.7% $26.68 Olympus  16.7% $15.30 | $597.10 +216.0% | $236.46 +25.2% | 50.0% | +124.5% | $188.93 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Inheritance  40.0% $102.58 Chrome Cannon  40.0% $60.71 | $663.30 +325.5% | $197.98 +27.0% | 20.0% | +149.7% | $155.89 | — |