The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Dark Sigil
1x $0.84
Motorized
1x $2.50
Slag
1x $2.83
Run Run Run
1x $2.25
2A2F
3x $2.68
Late Night Transit
3x $2.83
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
23.3% $64.86
Derailment
23.3% $41.50
Charged Up
23.3% $22.67
Block-18
6.0% $4.18
Analog Input
6.0% $2.99
Etch Lord
6.0% $1.66
Max Win
$64.86 (+143.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$30.82 (+15.6%)
Win %
46.7%
Volatility
+88.4%
Cost
$26.67
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $26.67
Ask Price EV $30.82 (+15.6%)
Bid Price EV $29.48 (+10.5%)
Ask Profit $4.15 (+15.6%)
Bid Profit $2.81 (+10.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.35 (+5.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.15
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.81
Risk
Win Probability 46.7%
Loss Probability 53.3%
Best Case $64.86 (+143.2%)
Worst Case $1.52 (-94.3%)
Volatility +88.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$26.51
Avg Loss -$15.41
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.52 (-94.3%)
Std Dev $23.56
Avg Norm Float 0.0954
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 151h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.84 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Factory New
$2.50 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Factory New
$2.83 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$2.25 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.68 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.69 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.83 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.87 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.99 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$4.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 57M 45S //TOTAL COST $26.67 //ASK PRICE EV $30.82 //BID PRICE EV $29.48 //ASK PROFIT $4.15 (+15.6%) //BID PROFIT $2.81 (+10.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +88.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$64.86
+$38.19
+143.2%
$61.61
+$34.94
+131.0%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
23.3%
$41.50
+$14.83
+55.6%
$40.19
+$13.52
+50.7%
$1.31
3.2%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$22.67
-$4.00
-15.0%
$21.50
-$5.17
-19.4%
$1.17
5.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.18
-$22.49
-84.3%
$4.17
-$22.50
-84.4%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.99
-$23.68
-88.8%
$2.96
-$23.71
-88.9%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.66
-$25.01
-93.8%
$1.54
-$25.13
-94.2%
$0.12
7.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.61
-$25.06
-94.0%
$1.58
-$25.09
-94.1%
$0.03
1.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.52
-$25.15
-94.3%
$1.51
-$25.16
-94.3%
$0.01
0.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06675199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 41.498,
"optimistic_value": 41.4,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 40.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:40.143491Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1496384,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.09536,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 22.666,
"optimistic_value": 22.61,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 21.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:40.068383Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09536,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 1.5235,
"optimistic_value": 1.52,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 1.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:25:06.603854Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06407,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.18,
"optimistic_value": 4.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 4.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:37.383942Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09536,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 1.661,
"optimistic_value": 1.64,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:09.507836Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09536,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 1.61,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:29.166630Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0590144896,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.99,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 2.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:26.301033Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_efffa8a5152366ccdec0fc37",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.84,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "509613089305575423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:24.310762Z"
},
{
"price": 2.5,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "523123888072506466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:57.768258Z"
},
{
"price": 2.83,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "506234592360092376",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:21.021544Z"
},
{
"price": 2.25,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "490472843632826355",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:51.158892Z"
},
{
"price": 2.68,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "519746241188969396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:39.890026Z"
},
{
"price": 2.69,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "523123940968972186",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:39.890026Z"
},
{
"price": 2.83,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "519746241188631932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:13.287968Z"
},
{
"price": 2.87,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "514116741796799430",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:13.287968Z"
},
{
"price": 2.99,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "514116688950627510",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:13.287968Z"
},
{
"price": 4.19,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "642467916639686441",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:39.890026Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:3+collection-set-train-2025:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.68 Charged Up 23.3% $7.44 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.79 Block-18 6.0% $0.77 Hybrid 6.0% $0.76 | $9.68 +100.8% | $5.88 +22.0% | 70.0% | +62.2% | $4.82 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Charged Up 23.3% $63.69 Derailment 23.3% $41.50 Etch Lord 6.0% $10.49 Just Smile 6.0% $9.45 Hybrid 6.0% $8.10 | $64.86 +64.0% | $41.79 +5.6% | 70.0% | +52.2% | $39.56 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Charged Up 23.3% $5.48 Whiteout 23.3% $5.17 Block-18 6.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.73 Hybrid 6.0% $0.71 | $7.13 +72.6% | $4.36 +5.6% | 70.0% | +51.9% | $4.13 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.68 Charged Up 13.3% $7.44 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.80 Block-18 12.0% $0.77 Hybrid 12.0% $0.76 | $9.68 +253.3% | $3.67 +34.0% | 40.0% | +122.8% | $2.74 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.68 Charged Up 16.7% $7.44 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.79 Block-18 10.0% $0.77 Hybrid 10.0% $0.76 | $9.68 +189.8% | $4.41 +31.9% | 50.0% | +100.9% | $3.34 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 10.0% $9.68 Charged Up 10.0% $7.44 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Etch Lord 14.0% $0.80 Block-18 14.0% $0.77 Hybrid 14.0% $0.76 | $9.68 +322.7% | $2.94 +28.3% | 30.0% | +140.1% | $2.29 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.68 Charged Up 20.0% $7.43 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Block-18 8.0% $0.77 Hybrid 8.0% $0.72 Just Smile 8.0% $0.72 | $9.68 +138.4% | $5.13 +26.4% | 60.0% | +80.3% | $4.06 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Derailment 6.7% $14.73 Whiteout 6.7% $9.68 Charged Up 6.7% $7.44 Block-18 16.0% $1.36 Analog Input 16.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.80 | $14.73 +464.3% | $2.87 +10.1% | 20.0% | +150.5% | $2.61 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  25.0% $294.44 Jawbreaker  16.7% $39.47 Black Lotus  16.7% $26.65 Olympus  16.7% $15.30 | $597.10 +218.0% | $236.46 +25.9% | 50.0% | +125.2% | $187.79 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Inheritance  40.0% $102.58 Chrome Cannon  40.0% $60.71 | $663.30 +313.7% | $197.98 +23.5% | 20.0% | +145.6% | $160.35 | — |