The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Tom Cat
3x $0.29
Bone Forged
1x $0.30
Desert Strike
1x $0.34
Prototype
1x $0.46
Sky Mandala
2x $0.34
Fraise Crane
2x $0.35
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
20.0% $7.64
Sleeping Potion
20.0% $2.56
Fever Dream
12.0% $1.28
Apocalypto
12.0% $0.83
Darkwing
12.0% $0.81
Enforcer
12.0% $0.77
Max Win
$7.64 (+118.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.57 (-26.3%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+75.0%
Cost
$3.49
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.49
Ask Price EV $2.57 (-26.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.36 (-32.3%)
Ask Profit $-0.92 (-26.3%)
Bid Profit $-1.13 (-32.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.21 (+6.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.92
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.13
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $7.64 (+118.8%)
Worst Case $0.75 (-78.5%)
Volatility +75.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$4.15
Avg Loss -$2.18
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.75 (-78.5%)
Std Dev $2.62
Avg Norm Float 0.4214
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 140h 46m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Desert Strike
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 04S //TOTAL COST $3.49 //ASK PRICE EV $2.57 //BID PRICE EV $2.36 //ASK PROFIT $-0.92 (-26.3%) //BID PROFIT $-1.13 (-32.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $7.64 //VOLATILITY +75.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$7.64
+$4.15
+118.8%
$7.16
+$3.67
+105.2%
$0.48
6.2%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$2.56
-$0.93
-26.7%
$2.25
-$1.24
-35.5%
$0.31
12.0%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.28
-$2.21
-63.2%
$1.18
-$2.31
-66.2%
$0.10
8.1%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.83
-$2.66
-76.2%
$0.69
-$2.80
-80.2%
$0.14
16.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.81
-$2.68
-76.7%
$0.74
-$2.75
-78.8%
$0.07
9.0%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.77
-$2.72
-78.0%
$0.71
-$2.78
-79.7%
$0.06
7.5%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.75
-$2.74
-78.5%
$0.70
-$2.79
-79.9%
$0.05
6.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.294987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.636,
"optimistic_value": 7.51,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 7.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:41:12.309979Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.294987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.557,
"optimistic_value": 2.55,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:41.973109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.42141,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 0.7515000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:41:00.268000Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.42141,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 0.7675000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:27.436850Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.42141,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 0.8135,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:50:42.656562Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.3034152,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 1.284,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 1.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:15.583125Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.42141,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 0.8305,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:06.390088Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d16d40c35ea52019a68fa3e6",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "524249787960872331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:42:58.188244Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-3c54e05cbb62",
"listing_id": "524249787961211487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3c54e05cbb62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:22.904298Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "503983589619192331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:05.541902Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "527627487624085712",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:05.541902Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d536309c3714",
"listing_id": "511864836540413649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d536309c3714.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:15.473022Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "631208917632812762",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:53:58.788361Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "503983589619270235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:27.433717Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "492724590626378025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:25.541051Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789729082221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:25.541051Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:27.433717Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:6+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.03 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 12.0% $0.97 Darkwing 12.0% $0.96 | $12.78 +180.8% | $5.75 +26.4% | 40.0% | +112.8% | $4.55 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 20.0% $26.56 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Fever Dream 12.0% $8.45 Acid Etched 12.0% $2.38 Darkwing 12.0% $2.29 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.94 | $26.56 +124.3% | $12.27 +3.6% | 40.0% | +88.4% | $11.84 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.06 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 10.0% $0.97 Darkwing 10.0% $0.96 | $13.33 +142.3% | $6.98 +26.9% | 50.0% | +96.7% | $5.50 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 6.0% $1.28 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 6.0% $0.97 Darkwing 6.0% $0.96 | $12.78 +81.5% | $8.92 +26.7% | 70.0% | +68.1% | $7.04 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 8.0% $1.28 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 8.0% $0.97 Darkwing 8.0% $0.96 | $12.78 +107.4% | $7.79 +26.5% | 60.0% | +84.1% | $6.16 | — |