The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Prototype
2x $0.48
Tom Cat
1x $0.50
Blue Ply
3x $1.00
Warm Blooded
3x $2.27
Sky Mandala
1x $3.96
↓
Possible Outputs
Acid Etched
12.0% $34.68
Exothermic
20.0% $26.56
Sleeping Potion
20.0% $24.63
Enforcer
12.0% $9.50
Darkwing
12.0% $9.49
Apocalypto
12.0% $9.24
Max Win
$34.68 (+80.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.80 (-2.4%)
Win %
52.0%
Volatility
+50.2%
Cost
$19.26
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.26
Ask Price EV $18.80 (-2.4%)
Bid Price EV $17.68 (-8.2%)
Ask Profit $-0.46 (-2.4%)
Bid Profit $-1.58 (-8.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.12 (+5.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.46
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.58
Risk
Win Probability 52.0%
Loss Probability 48.0%
Best Case $34.68 (+80.0%)
Worst Case $8.45 (-56.1%)
Volatility +50.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$8.43
Avg Loss -$10.09
Bottom 5% Outcome $8.45 (-56.1%)
Std Dev $9.68
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 140h 50m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.06 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.09 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Factory New
$1.81 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$4.02 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 48M 57S //TOTAL COST $19.26 //ASK PRICE EV $18.80 //BID PRICE EV $17.68 //ASK PROFIT $-0.46 (-2.4%) //BID PROFIT $-1.58 (-8.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.0% //BEST CASE $34.68 //VOLATILITY +50.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$34.68
+$15.42
+80.0%
$32.11
+$12.85
+66.7%
$2.56
7.4%
—
WIN
20.0%
$26.56
+$7.30
+37.9%
$25.88
+$6.62
+34.4%
$0.68
2.5%
—
WIN
20.0%
$24.63
+$5.37
+27.9%
$22.28
+$3.02
+15.7%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$9.50
-$9.76
-50.7%
$8.94
-$10.32
-53.6%
$0.56
5.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$9.49
-$9.77
-50.7%
$9.24
-$10.02
-52.0%
$0.25
2.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$9.24
-$10.02
-52.0%
$8.74
-$10.52
-54.6%
$0.50
5.5%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$8.45
-$10.81
-56.1%
$8.00
-$11.26
-58.5%
$0.45
5.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.555,
"optimistic_value": 26.45,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:27.288825Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 34.675,
"optimistic_value": 34.5,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 32.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:31.771580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 9.503,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 8.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:22.332071Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 9.487,
"optimistic_value": 9.48,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 9.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:48.687443Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.050385599999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 8.4505,
"optimistic_value": 8.37,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:04.546023Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 9.2445,
"optimistic_value": 9.22,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 8.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:37.934809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d16d40c35ea52019a68fa3e6",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "655978715566164233",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:53:58.788361Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "669488905360173675",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:05.541902Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "518620122759971524",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:29.173372Z"
},
{
"price": 1.06,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "523123091059693018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:29.173372Z"
},
{
"price": 1.09,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "505109489447933888",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:29.173372Z"
},
{
"price": 1.81,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "490472738292643731",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:35.651804Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737055183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "501731789729270537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:43.454609Z"
},
{
"price": 4.02,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526500790836642953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:6+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.03 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 12.0% $0.97 Darkwing 12.0% $0.96 | $12.78 +180.8% | $5.75 +26.4% | 40.0% | +112.8% | $4.55 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 20.0% $26.56 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Fever Dream 12.0% $8.45 Acid Etched 12.0% $2.38 Darkwing 12.0% $2.29 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.94 | $26.56 +124.3% | $12.27 +3.6% | 40.0% | +88.4% | $11.84 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.06 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 10.0% $0.97 Darkwing 10.0% $0.96 | $13.33 +142.3% | $6.98 +26.9% | 50.0% | +96.7% | $5.50 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 6.0% $1.28 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 6.0% $0.97 Darkwing 6.0% $0.96 | $12.78 +81.5% | $8.92 +26.7% | 70.0% | +68.1% | $7.04 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 8.0% $1.28 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 8.0% $0.97 Darkwing 8.0% $0.96 | $12.78 +107.4% | $7.79 +26.5% | 60.0% | +84.1% | $6.16 | — |