The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Bone Forged
1x $0.30
Tom Cat
1x $0.30
Desert Strike
1x $0.34
Prototype
3x $0.46
Earth Mandala
2x $0.46
Warm Blooded
1x $0.54
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
20.0% $13.26
Sleeping Potion
20.0% $11.82
Fever Dream
12.0% $3.18
Apocalypto
12.0% $1.04
Acid Etched
12.0% $1.01
Darkwing
12.0% $0.97
Max Win
$13.26 (+185.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.88 (+26.4%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+118.3%
Cost
$4.65
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.65
Ask Price EV $5.88 (+26.4%)
Bid Price EV $5.10 (+9.7%)
Ask Profit $1.23 (+26.4%)
Bid Profit $0.45 (+9.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.77 (+16.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.23
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.45
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $13.26 (+185.1%)
Worst Case $0.97 (-79.1%)
Volatility +118.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$7.89
Avg Loss -$3.22
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.97 (-79.1%)
Std Dev $5.50
Avg Norm Float 0.2081
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 13m
Oldest Output Price 139h 20m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Desert Strike
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 43M 55S //TOTAL COST $4.65 //ASK PRICE EV $5.88 //BID PRICE EV $5.10 //ASK PROFIT $1.23 (+26.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.45 (+9.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $13.26 //VOLATILITY +118.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$13.26
+$8.61
+185.1%
$12.04
+$7.39
+158.9%
$1.22
9.2%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$11.82
+$7.17
+154.2%
$9.69
+$5.04
+108.4%
$2.13
18.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$3.18
-$1.47
-31.6%
$2.85
-$1.80
-38.7%
$0.33
10.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.04
-$3.61
-77.6%
$0.88
-$3.77
-81.1%
$0.16
15.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.01
-$3.64
-78.3%
$0.87
-$3.78
-81.3%
$0.14
13.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.97
-$3.68
-79.1%
$0.85
-$3.80
-81.7%
$0.12
12.7%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.97
-$3.68
-79.1%
$0.85
-$3.80
-81.7%
$0.12
12.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.14567699999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.257,
"optimistic_value": 13.04,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:45:12.430273Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.14567699999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.20811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 1.01,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:36:18.459472Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.20811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 0.971,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:35:27.417251Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.20811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 0.9734999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:30.642030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14983919999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 3.18,
"optimistic_value": 3.18,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:34:49.159889Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.20811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 1.04,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 0.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:42:35.124784Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d16d40c35ea52019a68fa3e6",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-3c54e05cbb62",
"listing_id": "524249787961211487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3c54e05cbb62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:51.218323Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "503983589619192331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:02.284289Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d536309c3714",
"listing_id": "511864836540413649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d536309c3714.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:39.595865Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "631208917632812762",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:45:10.534619Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "492723793448175861",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:45:10.534619Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "655978715566164233",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:45:10.534619Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "494976390476572746",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:12.357849Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494976390476381946",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:12.837350Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "505109489448503948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:54:46.839453Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "518620288313571268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:12.357849Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:6+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 20.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Fever Dream 12.0% $8.28 Acid Etched 12.0% $2.38 Darkwing 12.0% $2.29 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.94 | $26.79 +126.2% | $12.29 +3.8% | 40.0% | +89.0% | $11.84 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.26 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.18 Apocalypto 10.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Darkwing 10.0% $0.97 | $13.26 +152.0% | $6.99 +32.8% | 50.0% | +100.3% | $5.26 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Fever Dream 2.0% $2.56 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.13 Apocalypto 2.0% $0.81 Acid Etched 2.0% $0.81 Enforcer 2.0% $0.81 | $9.85 +132.9% | $5.51 +30.2% | 45.0% | +91.9% | $4.23 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 8.0% $1.28 Apocalypto 8.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Darkwing 8.0% $0.97 | $13.33 +116.3% | $7.97 +29.3% | 60.0% | +86.3% | $6.16 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.26 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 6.0% $1.28 Apocalypto 6.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Darkwing 6.0% $0.97 | $13.26 +86.7% | $9.09 +28.1% | 70.0% | +69.1% | $7.10 | — |