The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Desert Strike
1x $0.34
Prototype
3x $0.46
Tom Cat
1x $0.50
Blue Ply
1x $1.00
Warm Blooded
4x $1.26
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
20.0% $26.56
Sleeping Potion
20.0% $24.63
Fever Dream
12.0% $8.45
Acid Etched
12.0% $2.38
Darkwing
12.0% $2.29
Apocalypto
12.0% $1.94
Max Win
$26.56 (+124.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$12.27 (+3.6%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+93.5%
Cost
$11.84
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $11.84
Ask Price EV $12.27 (+3.6%)
Bid Price EV $11.54 (-2.6%)
Ask Profit $0.43 (+3.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.30 (-2.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.73 (+6.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.43
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.30
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $26.56 (+124.3%)
Worst Case $1.86 (-84.3%)
Volatility +93.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$13.75
Avg Loss -$8.46
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.86 (-84.3%)
Std Dev $11.07
Avg Norm Float 0.0972
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 42h 39m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Desert Strike
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 05S //TOTAL COST $11.84 //ASK PRICE EV $12.27 //BID PRICE EV $11.54 //ASK PROFIT $0.43 (+3.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.30 (-2.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $26.56 //VOLATILITY +93.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$26.56
+$14.72
+124.3%
$25.88
+$14.04
+118.6%
$0.68
2.5%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$24.63
+$12.79
+108.0%
$22.28
+$10.44
+88.2%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$8.45
-$3.39
-28.6%
$8.00
-$3.84
-32.4%
$0.45
5.3%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.38
-$9.46
-79.9%
$2.24
-$9.60
-81.1%
$0.14
5.8%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.29
-$9.55
-80.7%
$2.02
-$9.82
-82.9%
$0.27
11.8%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.94
-$9.90
-83.6%
$1.88
-$9.96
-84.1%
$0.06
3.1%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.86
-$9.98
-84.3%
$1.72
-$10.12
-85.5%
$0.14
7.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.068019,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.555,
"optimistic_value": 26.45,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:27.288825Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.068019,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09717,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 2.3770000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 2.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:33:15.773343Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09717,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 1.8575,
"optimistic_value": 1.84,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 1.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:32.820233Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09717,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 2.291,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 2.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T07:19:18.742363Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06996240000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 8.4505,
"optimistic_value": 8.37,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:04.546023Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09717,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 1.9405,
"optimistic_value": 1.93,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 1.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:42.201469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d16d40c35ea52019a68fa3e6",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d536309c3714",
"listing_id": "511864836540413649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d536309c3714.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:15.473022Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "631208917632812762",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:53:58.788361Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "492723793448175861",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:53:58.788361Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "655978715566164233",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:53:58.788361Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "669488905360173675",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:05.541902Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "518620122759971524",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:29.173372Z"
},
{
"price": 1.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "510738823413937978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:53.056487Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737055183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:48.308012Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:6+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.03 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 12.0% $0.97 Darkwing 12.0% $0.96 | $12.78 +180.8% | $5.75 +26.4% | 40.0% | +112.8% | $4.55 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.06 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 10.0% $0.97 Darkwing 10.0% $0.96 | $13.33 +142.3% | $6.98 +26.9% | 50.0% | +96.7% | $5.50 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 6.0% $1.28 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 6.0% $0.97 Darkwing 6.0% $0.96 | $12.78 +81.5% | $8.92 +26.7% | 70.0% | +68.1% | $7.04 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 8.0% $1.28 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 8.0% $0.97 Darkwing 8.0% $0.96 | $12.78 +107.4% | $7.79 +26.5% | 60.0% | +84.1% | $6.16 | — |