The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +23.3%Factory New -17.6%Field-Tested +24.0%Minimal Wear +17.7%Well-Worn -2.6%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Aeolian Light

1x $0.25

Grip Tape

2x $0.34

The Daily Deagle

1x $0.41

Poplar Thicket

2x $0.13

Copperflage

2x $0.17

Gold Leaf

2x $0.18

↓

Possible Outputs

Breakthrough

20.0% $5.85

Trace Lock

20.0% $2.17

Sheet Lightning

30.0% $1.71

Glockingbird

30.0% $1.54

Max Win

$5.85 (+120.8%)

EV (ROI %)

$2.58 (-2.6%)

Win %

20.0%

Volatility

+62.2%

Cost

$2.65

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $2.65

Ask Price EV $2.58 (-2.6%)

Bid Price EV $2.32 (-12.5%)

Ask Profit $-0.07 (-2.6%)

Bid Profit $-0.33 (-12.5%)

Liquidity Gap $0.26 (+9.9%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.07

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.33

Risk

Win Probability 20.0%

Loss Probability 80.0%

Best Case $5.85 (+120.8%)

Worst Case $1.54 (-41.8%)

Volatility +62.2%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%

Avg Win +$3.20

Avg Loss -$0.89

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.54 (-41.8%)

Std Dev $1.65

Avg Norm Float 0.4413

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 18m

Oldest Output Price 144h 58m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.25 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Field-Tested

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Field-Tested

$0.41 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Field-Tested

$0.42 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.13 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.16 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Copperflage

—

Field-Tested

$0.17 Float: HIDDEN

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf

—

Field-Tested

$0.18 Float: HIDDEN

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf

—

Field-Tested

$0.19 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Copperflage

—

Minimal Wear

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 55S //TOTAL COST $2.65 //ASK PRICE EV $2.58 //BID PRICE EV $2.32 //ASK PROFIT $-0.07 (-2.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.33 (-12.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +62.2% //

Possible Outputs · 4

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.2956777,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
      "realistic_value": 1.5435,
      "optimistic_value": 1.54,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
      "conservative_value": 1.45,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:35.277434Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.33098249999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
      "realistic_value": 1.714,
      "optimistic_value": 1.7,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
      "conservative_value": 1.58,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T03:16:00.439567Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.33098249999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 5.77,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 4.91,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.30891699999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 2.1705,
      "optimistic_value": 2.16,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 2.14,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:52.860866Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_cf4769ba12b263cde99e54e5",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.25,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "526501587737062601",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:49.100496Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "491598690699908402",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:42.051997Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "502857689861492308",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:38.198973Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "507361123687773313",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:42.051997Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.13,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "508487136897832382",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:45.413699Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.16,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "502857637417804924",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:45.413699Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.17,
      "skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
      "listing_id": "512990789045325407",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:09:18.892926Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
      "listing_id": "496102290328703183",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:07:17.483307Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
      "listing_id": "514116523133772618",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:07:17.483307Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
      "listing_id": "516368488726166090",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:55.869914Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.22 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.63 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.62	$12.25 +152.0%	$6.03 +24.0%	50.0%	+65.3%	$4.86	—
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Breakthrough 20.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 20.0% $3.20 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 30.0% $1.54	$6.12 +157.0%	$2.93 +23.3%	40.0%	+71.1%	$2.38	—
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Breakthrough 20.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $17.71 Trace Lock 20.0% $14.71 Glockingbird 30.0% $11.97	$26.93 +83.9%	$17.23 +17.7%	70.0%	+36.4%	$14.64	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.22 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.55 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.62	$12.25 +165.6%	$5.61 +21.7%	50.0%	+62.2%	$4.61	—
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.29 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.69 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.62	$12.25 +173.9%	$5.25 +17.5%	60.0%	+54.8%	$4.47	—
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Boreal Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.17 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 5.0% $1.54	$6.12 +83.1%	$3.91 +17.0%	45.0%	+60.0%	$3.34	—
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 5.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.22 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.69 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.62	$12.25 +172.1%	$4.82 +7.2%	55.0%	+41.5%	$4.50	—