The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Creep
2x $1.43
Aeolian Light
1x $2.00
The Daily Deagle
1x $3.00
Poplar Thicket
5x $0.71
Gold Leaf
1x $2.50
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
20.0% $26.93
Sheet Lightning
30.0% $17.71
Trace Lock
20.0% $14.71
Glockingbird
30.0% $11.97
Max Win
$26.93 (+28.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.23 (-17.6%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+25.5%
Cost
$20.92
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.92
Ask Price EV $17.23 (-17.6%)
Bid Price EV $16.58 (-20.8%)
Ask Profit $-3.69 (-17.6%)
Bid Profit $-4.34 (-20.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.65 (+3.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.69
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.34
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+28.7%)
Worst Case $11.97 (-42.8%)
Volatility +25.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$6.01
Avg Loss -$6.11
Bottom 5% Outcome $11.97 (-42.8%)
Std Dev $5.33
Avg Norm Float 0.0694
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 6h 37m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Factory New
$2.50 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.68 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 14S //TOTAL COST $20.92 //ASK PRICE EV $17.23 //BID PRICE EV $16.58 //ASK PROFIT $-3.69 (-17.6%) //BID PROFIT $-4.34 (-20.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +25.5% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
20.0%
$26.93
+$6.01
+28.7%
$26.63
+$5.71
+27.3%
$0.30
1.1%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$17.71
-$3.21
-15.3%
$17.08
-$3.84
-18.4%
$0.63
3.6%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$14.71
-$6.21
-29.7%
$13.15
-$7.77
-37.1%
$1.56
10.6%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$11.97
-$8.95
-42.8%
$11.66
-$9.26
-44.3%
$0.31
2.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.0465114,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.967,
"optimistic_value": 11.96,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:16.824980Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.052065,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 17.712,
"optimistic_value": 17.67,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 17.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:27.102962Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.052065,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.04859399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.706,
"optimistic_value": 14.65,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:15.310415Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_cf4769ba12b263cde99e54e5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:09.230678Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "524248990833803271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:09.230678Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520872088106386248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:19:28.752247Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:19:47.626321Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089303443359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:37.483724Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "516368322946009778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:37.483724Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "493850490550488376",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:25.675489Z"
},
{
"price": 2.5,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496101493262736815",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:16.527631Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "512990623223766251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:25.675489Z"
},
{
"price": 3.68,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "517493591330950090",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:25.675489Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.22 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.63 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.62 | $12.25 +152.0% | $6.03 +24.0% | 50.0% | +65.3% | $4.86 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 20.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 20.0% $3.20 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 30.0% $1.54 | $6.12 +157.0% | $2.93 +23.3% | 40.0% | +71.1% | $2.38 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 20.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $17.71 Trace Lock 20.0% $14.71 Glockingbird 30.0% $11.97 | $26.93 +83.9% | $17.23 +17.7% | 70.0% | +36.4% | $14.64 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.22 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.55 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.62 | $12.25 +165.6% | $5.61 +21.7% | 50.0% | +62.2% | $4.61 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.29 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.69 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.62 | $12.25 +173.9% | $5.25 +17.5% | 60.0% | +54.8% | $4.47 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Boreal Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.17 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 5.0% $1.54 | $6.12 +83.1% | $3.91 +17.0% | 45.0% | +60.0% | $3.34 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 5.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.22 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.69 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.62 | $12.25 +172.1% | $4.82 +7.2% | 55.0% | +41.5% | $4.50 | — |