The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Aeolian Light
4x $0.25
Poplar Thicket
2x $0.13
Copperflage
2x $0.17
Gold Leaf
2x $0.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
20.0% $6.12
Trace Lock
20.0% $3.20
Sheet Lightning
30.0% $2.03
Glockingbird
30.0% $1.54
Max Win
$6.12 (+157.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.93 (+23.3%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+71.1%
Cost
$2.38
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.38
Ask Price EV $2.93 (+23.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.48 (+4.2%)
Ask Profit $0.55 (+23.3%)
Bid Profit $0.10 (+4.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.45 (+19.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.55
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.10
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $6.12 (+157.0%)
Worst Case $1.54 (-35.1%)
Volatility +71.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$2.28
Avg Loss -$0.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.54 (-35.1%)
Std Dev $1.69
Avg Norm Float 0.5540
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 146h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 55S //TOTAL COST $2.38 //ASK PRICE EV $2.93 //BID PRICE EV $2.48 //ASK PROFIT $0.55 (+23.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.10 (+4.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $6.12 //VOLATILITY +71.1% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$6.12
+$3.74
+157.0%
$5.33
+$2.95
+123.9%
$0.79
12.9%
—
PAPER WIN THIN BID
20.0%
$3.20
+$0.82
+34.3%
$2.35
-$0.03
-1.3%
$0.85
26.5%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$2.03
-$0.35
-14.8%
$1.70
-$0.68
-28.6%
$0.33
16.1%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$1.54
-$0.84
-35.1%
$1.45
-$0.93
-39.1%
$0.09
6.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.37114650000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 1.5435,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 1.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:35.277434Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.41546250000000007,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 2.027,
"optimistic_value": 2.02,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:09:46.601021Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.41546250000000007,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 6.1165,
"optimistic_value": 5.91,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 5.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:27.628648Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.387765,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 3.1965,
"optimistic_value": 3.06,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:58.816197Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_cf4769ba12b263cde99e54e5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:49.100496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "529879287550318068",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:49.100496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "508487136897723158",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:49.100496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490550151956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:49.100496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "508487136897832382",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:45.413699Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "502857637417804924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:45.413699Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "512990789045325407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:09:18.892926Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328703183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:07:17.483307Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:07:17.483307Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "516368488726166090",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:55.869914Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.22 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.63 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.62 | $12.25 +152.0% | $6.03 +24.0% | 50.0% | +65.3% | $4.86 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 20.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $17.71 Trace Lock 20.0% $14.71 Glockingbird 30.0% $11.97 | $26.93 +83.9% | $17.23 +17.7% | 70.0% | +36.4% | $14.64 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.22 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.55 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.62 | $12.25 +165.6% | $5.61 +21.7% | 50.0% | +62.2% | $4.61 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.29 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.69 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.62 | $12.25 +173.9% | $5.25 +17.5% | 60.0% | +54.8% | $4.47 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Boreal Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.17 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 5.0% $1.54 | $6.12 +83.1% | $3.91 +17.0% | 45.0% | +60.0% | $3.34 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 5.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.22 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.69 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.62 | $12.25 +172.1% | $4.82 +7.2% | 55.0% | +41.5% | $4.50 | — |