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The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Battle-Scarred +23.3%Factory New -17.6%Field-Tested +24.0%Minimal Wear +17.7%Well-Worn -2.6%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Aeolian Light
P90 | Aeolian Light
3x $0.94
Creep
AUG | Creep
1x $1.43
Poplar Thicket
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
4x $0.71
Copperflage
XM1014 | Copperflage
2x $0.85
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
20.0% $26.93
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
30.0% $17.71
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
20.0% $14.71
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
30.0% $11.97
Max Win
$26.93 (+83.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.23 (+17.7%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+36.4%
Cost
$14.64
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $14.64
Ask Price EV $17.23 (+17.7%)
Bid Price EV $16.58 (+13.2%)
Ask Profit $2.59 (+17.7%)
Bid Profit $1.94 (+13.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.65 (+4.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.59
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.94
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+83.9%)
Worst Case $11.97 (-18.3%)
Volatility +36.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$4.85
Avg Loss -$2.67
Bottom 5% Outcome $11.97 (-18.3%)
Std Dev $5.33
Avg Norm Float 0.0932
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 6h 38m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)
$2.11 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)
$0.88 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 42S //TOTAL COST $14.64 //ASK PRICE EV $17.23 //BID PRICE EV $16.58 //ASK PROFIT $2.59 (+17.7%) //BID PROFIT $1.94 (+13.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +36.4% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
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Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
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Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.0624306,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
      "realistic_value": 11.967,
      "optimistic_value": 11.96,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
      "conservative_value": 11.66,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:16.824980Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.069885,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
      "realistic_value": 17.712,
      "optimistic_value": 17.67,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
      "conservative_value": 17.08,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:27.102962Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.069885,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
      "optimistic_value": 26.72,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 26.63,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.06522599999999999,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 14.706,
      "optimistic_value": 14.65,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 13.15,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:15.310415Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_cf4769ba12b263cde99e54e5",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.94,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "518620288313427412",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:17.321797Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.43,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "507361289453312365",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:09.230678Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "520872088106386248",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:19:28.752247Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.11,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "510738989040662074",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:19:28.752247Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.71,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "509613089303443359",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:37.483724Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.85,
      "skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
      "listing_id": "524248990822512231",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:55.869914Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.88,
      "skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
      "listing_id": "649222707046030432",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:55.869914Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.97,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "516368322946009778",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:37.483724Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.53,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "493850490550488376",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:25.675489Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.22,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "512990623223766251",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:25.675489Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
20.0% $12.25
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
30.0% $5.22
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
20.0% $4.63
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
30.0% $3.62
$12.25
+152.0%
$6.03
+24.0%
50.0%+65.3%$4.86—
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
20.0% $6.12
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
20.0% $3.20
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
30.0% $2.03
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
30.0% $1.54
$6.12
+157.0%
$2.93
+23.3%
40.0%+71.1%$2.38—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
15.0% $12.25
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
35.0% $5.22
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
15.0% $4.55
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
35.0% $3.62
$12.25
+165.6%
$5.61
+21.7%
50.0%+62.2%$4.61—
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
10.0% $12.25
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
40.0% $5.29
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
10.0% $4.69
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
40.0% $3.62
$12.25
+173.9%
$5.25
+17.5%
60.0%+54.8%$4.47—
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Boreal Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
45.0% $6.12
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
45.0% $2.17
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
5.0% $2.03
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
5.0% $1.54
$6.12
+83.1%
$3.91
+17.0%
45.0%+60.0%$3.34—
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
5.0% $12.25
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
45.0% $5.22
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
5.0% $4.69
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
45.0% $3.62
$12.25
+172.1%
$4.82
+7.2%
55.0%+41.5%$4.50—
FS

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