The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
The Daily Deagle
1x $0.46
Aeolian Light
2x $0.70
Grip Tape
1x $0.87
Gold Leaf
2x $0.18
Copperflage
2x $0.41
Poplar Thicket
2x $0.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
20.0% $12.25
Sheet Lightning
30.0% $5.29
Trace Lock
20.0% $4.63
Glockingbird
30.0% $3.69
Max Win
$12.25 (+149.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.07 (+23.6%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+64.2%
Cost
$4.91
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.91
Ask Price EV $6.07 (+23.6%)
Bid Price EV $5.61 (+14.3%)
Ask Profit $1.16 (+23.6%)
Bid Profit $0.70 (+14.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.46 (+9.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.16
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.70
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+149.4%)
Worst Case $3.69 (-24.8%)
Volatility +64.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$3.16
Avg Loss -$0.84
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.69 (-24.8%)
Std Dev $3.15
Avg Norm Float 0.1996
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 144h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 56S //TOTAL COST $4.91 //ASK PRICE EV $6.07 //BID PRICE EV $5.61 //ASK PROFIT $1.16 (+23.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.70 (+14.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +64.2% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$12.25
+$7.34
+149.4%
$11.36
+$6.45
+131.4%
$0.89
7.2%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$5.29
+$0.38
+7.6%
$5.09
+$0.18
+3.7%
$0.20
3.7%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$4.63
-$0.28
-5.7%
$4.10
-$0.81
-16.5%
$0.53
11.5%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$3.69
-$1.22
-24.8%
$3.31
-$1.60
-32.6%
$0.38
10.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.1337052,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 3.6904999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 3.61,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:58:02.169861Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.14967,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 5.285,
"optimistic_value": 5.25,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 5.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:58.676905Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.14967,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.13969199999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.6325,
"optimistic_value": 4.51,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:04.381304Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_cf4769ba12b263cde99e54e5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "491598690699020822",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:10.279595Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "490471993874422251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:22.844520Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "521997988015813938",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:21.438604Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "506235337025136948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:17.311700Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328703183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:14:15.563924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:14:15.563924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "514116688949135922",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:53.758956Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "512990789045074739",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:53.758956Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "523123888072572238",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:07:45.102530Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "645845616400983825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:07:45.102530Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 20.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $17.76 Trace Lock 20.0% $14.79 Glockingbird 30.0% $11.97 | $26.93 +84.3% | $17.26 +18.2% | 70.0% | +36.5% | $14.61 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 20.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.18 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 30.0% $1.54 | $6.12 +158.1% | $2.73 +15.2% | 20.0% | +72.2% | $2.37 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 20.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.18 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $1.71 Glockingbird 30.0% $1.54 | $5.85 +140.8% | $2.58 +6.3% | 20.0% | +67.8% | $2.43 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.18 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 20.0% $1.54 | $6.12 +147.6% | $3.20 +29.7% | 30.0% | +77.7% | $2.47 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 25.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.18 Sheet Lightning 25.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 25.0% $1.54 | $6.12 +164.8% | $2.97 +28.5% | 25.0% | +79.4% | $2.31 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.29 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.63 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.69 | $12.25 +166.8% | $5.67 +23.6% | 65.0% | +61.9% | $4.59 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Boreal Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.18 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 5.0% $1.54 | $6.12 +90.0% | $3.91 +21.5% | 45.0% | +62.0% | $3.22 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Boreal Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 40.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.17 Sheet Lightning 10.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 10.0% $1.54 | $6.12 +101.2% | $3.67 +20.8% | 40.0% | +65.9% | $3.04 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.15 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.43 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.69 | $12.25 +180.2% | $5.20 +19.0% | 60.0% | +55.7% | $4.37 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 5.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.15 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.43 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.69 | $12.25 +191.5% | $4.81 +14.5% | 55.0% | +43.8% | $4.20 | — |