The Fever Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Sure Grip
1x $0.14
Memorial
3x $0.14
Poplar Thicket
4x $0.13
Gold Leaf
2x $0.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Sheet Lightning
30.0% $1.71
Glockingbird
30.0% $1.51
Serpent Strike
8.0% $0.77
Control
8.0% $0.77
Tosai
8.0% $0.69
Rising Sun
8.0% $0.65
Max Win
$1.71 (+8.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.25 (-21.0%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+28.7%
Cost
$1.58
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.58
Ask Price EV $1.25 (-21.0%)
Bid Price EV $1.16 (-26.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.33 (-21.0%)
Bid Profit $-0.42 (-26.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.09 (+5.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.33
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.42
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $1.71 (+8.5%)
Worst Case $0.63 (-60.3%)
Volatility +28.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$0.13
Avg Loss -$0.53
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.63 (-60.3%)
Std Dev $0.45
Avg Norm Float 0.4380
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 155h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 36S //TOTAL COST $1.58 //ASK PRICE EV $1.25 //BID PRICE EV $1.16 //ASK PROFIT $-0.33 (-21.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.42 (-26.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $1.71 //VOLATILITY +28.7% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
SMALL WIN
30.0%
$1.71
+$0.13
+8.5%
$1.58
+$0.00
+0.0%
$0.13
7.8%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$1.51
-$0.07
-4.4%
$1.46
-$0.12
-7.6%
$0.05
3.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.77
-$0.81
-51.0%
$0.66
-$0.92
-58.2%
$0.11
14.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.77
-$0.81
-51.3%
$0.66
-$0.92
-58.2%
$0.11
14.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.69
-$0.89
-56.2%
$0.65
-$0.93
-58.9%
$0.04
6.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.65
-$0.93
-58.6%
$0.59
-$0.99
-62.7%
$0.06
9.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.63
-$0.95
-60.3%
$0.57
-$1.01
-63.9%
$0.06
9.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.2934332,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 1.5105,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 1.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:46.906879Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.32847000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 1.714,
"optimistic_value": 1.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T03:16:00.439567Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.24963719999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 0.774,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:42.543846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.3499278502,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 0.77,
"optimistic_value": 0.77,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T06:54:02.871108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.43796,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 0.6535,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 0.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:59.212442Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.41630244004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 0.627,
"optimistic_value": 0.62,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:36.218654Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.306572,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 0.6915,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 0.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:22.382945Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c71777572c9b429784062812",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "507361289453186113",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:53.322220Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "506235442367819664",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:12.177284Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "506235223785210480",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:12.177284Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "499479937453450165",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:12.177284Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "521998040963537538",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:11.472901Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "493850543433082972",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:11.472901Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "502857742727571724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:11.472901Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "515241791647875565",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:11.472901Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "491598638253896138",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:18.146200Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:18.146200Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.34 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.70 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.51 Tosai 8.0% $1.32 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $5.34 +99.3% | $3.12 +16.5% | 60.0% | +63.8% | $2.68 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $16.97 Glockingbird 30.0% $11.77 Tosai 8.0% $4.26 Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.23 Rising Sun 8.0% $1.86 Control 8.0% $1.67 | $16.97 +81.3% | $9.71 +3.7% | 60.0% | +60.4% | $9.36 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.48 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.70 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.51 Tosai 6.0% $1.32 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $5.48 +85.2% | $3.52 +18.9% | 70.0% | +56.4% | $2.96 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.48 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.55 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.52 Tosai 10.0% $1.31 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Control 10.0% $0.77 | $5.48 +123.7% | $2.77 +13.1% | 50.0% | +72.4% | $2.45 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Green Energy  40.0% $36.26 Shinobu  20.0% $7.54 Searing Rage  20.0% $7.42 K.O. Factory  20.0% $6.70 | $36.26 +119.5% | $18.84 +14.0% | 40.0% | +86.1% | $16.52 | — |