The Fever Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
PC-GRN
1x $0.42
Resupply
2x $0.51
Sure Grip
1x $2.36
Copperflage
2x $0.64
Poplar Thicket
3x $0.97
Gold Leaf
1x $1.54
↓
Possible Outputs
Sheet Lightning
30.0% $16.97
Glockingbird
30.0% $11.77
Rising Sun
8.0% $9.18
Wave Breaker
8.0% $8.77
Control
8.0% $7.95
Tosai
8.0% $4.26
Max Win
$16.97 (+13.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$11.37 (-24.1%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+29.4%
Cost
$14.99
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $14.99
Ask Price EV $11.37 (-24.1%)
Bid Price EV $11.28 (-24.7%)
Ask Profit $-3.62 (-24.1%)
Bid Profit $-3.71 (-24.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.09 (+0.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.62
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.71
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $16.97 (+13.2%)
Worst Case $4.23 (-71.8%)
Volatility +29.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$1.98
Avg Loss -$6.01
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.23 (-71.8%)
Std Dev $4.41
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 29m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Minimal Wear
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Factory New
$1.54 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 25S //TOTAL COST $14.99 //ASK PRICE EV $11.37 //BID PRICE EV $11.28 //ASK PROFIT $-3.62 (-24.1%) //BID PROFIT $-3.71 (-24.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $16.97 //VOLATILITY +29.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
SMALL WIN
30.0%
$16.97
+$1.98
+13.2%
$16.88
+$1.89
+12.6%
$0.09
0.5%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$11.77
-$3.22
-21.5%
$11.70
-$3.29
-21.9%
$0.07
0.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$9.18
-$5.81
-38.8%
$8.80
-$6.19
-41.3%
$0.38
4.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$8.77
-$6.22
-41.5%
$8.71
-$6.28
-41.9%
$0.06
0.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$7.95
-$7.04
-47.0%
$7.94
-$7.05
-47.0%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.26
-$10.73
-71.6%
$4.23
-$10.76
-71.8%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.23
-$10.76
-71.8%
$4.20
-$10.79
-72.0%
$0.03
0.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.04687990000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.772,
"optimistic_value": 11.73,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:30.554918Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.0524775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 16.97,
"optimistic_value": 16.9,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 16.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:34.184967Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0398829,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.234,
"optimistic_value": 4.22,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 4.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:26.268507Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.055905680150000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 7.95,
"optimistic_value": 7.95,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 7.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:49.458941Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 9.1805,
"optimistic_value": 9.17,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 8.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:31:58.692124Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06650991353,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 8.771,
"optimistic_value": 8.75,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 8.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:02.463893Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.048979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 4.264,
"optimistic_value": 4.25,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 4.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:26.268864Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c71777572c9b429784062812",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "526501587738288581",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:14.858024Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "516368488724860838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:20.051025Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "528753387757505925",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:39:46.153315Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "521997822481944714",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:33.929760Z"
},
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "492724643507492625",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:59.371595Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "524248990822512231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:59.371595Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "516368322946009778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:22.199813Z"
},
{
"price": 1.54,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "510739041955237846",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:17.080525Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "659356415310796570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:49.381303Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "512990623223766251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:49.381303Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.34 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.70 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.51 Tosai 8.0% $1.32 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $5.34 +99.3% | $3.12 +16.5% | 60.0% | +63.8% | $2.68 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $16.97 Glockingbird 30.0% $11.77 Tosai 8.0% $4.26 Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.23 Rising Sun 8.0% $1.86 Control 8.0% $1.67 | $16.97 +81.3% | $9.71 +3.7% | 60.0% | +60.4% | $9.36 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.48 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.70 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.51 Tosai 6.0% $1.32 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $5.48 +85.2% | $3.52 +18.9% | 70.0% | +56.4% | $2.96 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.48 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.55 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.52 Tosai 10.0% $1.31 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Control 10.0% $0.77 | $5.48 +123.7% | $2.77 +13.1% | 50.0% | +72.4% | $2.45 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Green Energy  40.0% $36.26 Shinobu  20.0% $7.54 Searing Rage  20.0% $7.42 K.O. Factory  20.0% $6.70 | $36.26 +119.5% | $18.84 +14.0% | 40.0% | +86.1% | $16.52 | — |