The Fever Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Sure Grip
1x $0.34
PC-GRN
2x $0.41
Resupply
1x $0.51
Copperflage
2x $0.64
Poplar Thicket
2x $0.97
Gold Leaf
2x $1.50
↓
Possible Outputs
Sheet Lightning
30.0% $16.97
Glockingbird
30.0% $11.77
Tosai
8.0% $4.26
Serpent Strike
8.0% $4.23
Rising Sun
8.0% $1.86
Control
8.0% $1.67
Max Win
$16.97 (+81.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.71 (+3.7%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+65.2%
Cost
$9.36
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $9.36
Ask Price EV $9.71 (+3.7%)
Bid Price EV $9.62 (+2.8%)
Ask Profit $0.35 (+3.7%)
Bid Profit $0.26 (+2.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.09 (+0.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.35
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.26
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $16.97 (+81.3%)
Worst Case $1.56 (-83.3%)
Volatility +65.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$5.01
Avg Loss -$6.64
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.56 (-83.3%)
Std Dev $6.11
Avg Norm Float 0.0933
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 29h 25m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Minimal Wear
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Factory New
$1.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Factory New
$1.54 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 35S //TOTAL COST $9.36 //ASK PRICE EV $9.71 //BID PRICE EV $9.62 //ASK PROFIT $0.35 (+3.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.26 (+2.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $16.97 //VOLATILITY +65.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$16.97
+$7.61
+81.3%
$16.88
+$7.52
+80.3%
$0.09
0.5%
—
WIN
30.0%
$11.77
+$2.41
+25.8%
$11.70
+$2.34
+25.0%
$0.07
0.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.26
-$5.10
-54.4%
$4.23
-$5.13
-54.8%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.23
-$5.13
-54.8%
$4.20
-$5.16
-55.1%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.86
-$7.50
-80.1%
$1.76
-$7.60
-81.2%
$0.10
5.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.67
-$7.69
-82.2%
$1.35
-$8.01
-85.6%
$0.32
19.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.56
-$7.80
-83.3%
$1.55
-$7.81
-83.4%
$0.01
0.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06249760000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.772,
"optimistic_value": 11.73,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:30.554918Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 16.97,
"optimistic_value": 16.9,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 16.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:34.184967Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0531696,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.234,
"optimistic_value": 4.22,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 4.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:26.268507Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0745302536,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 1.6669999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T11:19:36.262895Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09328,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 1.8605,
"optimistic_value": 1.85,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 1.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:39.078437Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.08866721072,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 1.56,
"optimistic_value": 1.56,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 1.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:16.198321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06529599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 4.264,
"optimistic_value": 4.25,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 4.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:26.268864Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c71777572c9b429784062812",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "506235442367948076",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:17.309879Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "492724643508445149",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:14.858024Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "526501587738288581",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:14.858024Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "516368488724860838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:20.051025Z"
},
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "492724643507492625",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:59.371595Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "524248990822512231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:59.371595Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "516368322946009778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:22.199813Z"
},
{
"price": 1.5,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "507361342335029749",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:17.080525Z"
},
{
"price": 1.54,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "510739041955237846",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:17.080525Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "659356415310796570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:49.381303Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.34 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.70 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.51 Tosai 8.0% $1.32 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $5.34 +99.3% | $3.12 +16.5% | 60.0% | +63.8% | $2.68 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.48 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.70 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.51 Tosai 6.0% $1.32 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $5.48 +85.2% | $3.52 +18.9% | 70.0% | +56.4% | $2.96 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.48 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.55 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.52 Tosai 10.0% $1.31 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Control 10.0% $0.77 | $5.48 +123.7% | $2.77 +13.1% | 50.0% | +72.4% | $2.45 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Green Energy  40.0% $36.26 Shinobu  20.0% $7.54 Searing Rage  20.0% $7.42 K.O. Factory  20.0% $6.70 | $36.26 +119.5% | $18.84 +14.0% | 40.0% | +86.1% | $16.52 | — |