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The Fever Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4

Classified → Covert FN ST 10 items
Battle-Scarred +5.0%Factory New +17.9%Field-Tested +30.6%Minimal Wear -0.6%Well-Worn +5.3%
Contract
Classified → Covert Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
K.O. Factory
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
6x $14.03
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
2x $21.11
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
2x $76.51
↓
Possible Outputs
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
20.0% $843.46
Printstream
AWP | Printstream
30.0% $745.73
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
20.0% $484.90
Bad Trip
FAMAS | Bad Trip
30.0% $145.99
Max Win
$843.46 (+86.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$533.19 (+17.9%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+61.8%
Cost
$452.37
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $452.37
Ask Price EV $533.19 (+17.9%)
Bid Price EV $440.06 (-2.7%)
Ask Profit $80.82 (+17.9%)
Bid Profit $-12.31 (-2.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $93.13 (+20.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$80.82
Bid Slippage Buffer -$12.31
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $843.46 (+86.5%)
Worst Case $145.99 (-67.7%)
Volatility +61.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$246.76
Avg Loss -$306.38
Bottom 5% Outcome $145.99 (-67.7%)
Std Dev $279.73
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 13m
Oldest Output Price 149h 44m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)
$14.03 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)
$29.41 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)
$33.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)
$33.84 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
—
Factory New
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New)
$49.00 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
—
Factory New
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New)
$58.92 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Deathgaze
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)
$21.11 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Deathgaze
—
Factory New
StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)
$56.15 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Kintsugi
—
Factory New
StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)
$76.51 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Kintsugi
—
Factory New
StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)
$80.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 09S //TOTAL COST $452.37 //ASK PRICE EV $533.19 //BID PRICE EV $440.06 //ASK PROFIT $80.82 (+17.9%) //BID PROFIT $-12.31 (-2.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $843.46 //VOLATILITY +61.8% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
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Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Classified|stattrak",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Classified|stattrak",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.0698,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-5a39103af835",
      "realistic_value": 745.7265,
      "optimistic_value": 702.19,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Printstream",
      "conservative_value": 573.27,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Printstream (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:15:55.103760Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a39103af835.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.0698,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f098f9b83e8b",
      "realistic_value": 145.9915,
      "optimistic_value": 144.56,
      "output_full_name": "FAMAS | Bad Trip",
      "conservative_value": 124.03,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:31:59.323612Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f098f9b83e8b.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.0698,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-66197377b028",
      "realistic_value": 843.46,
      "optimistic_value": 820.92,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Queen's Gambit",
      "conservative_value": 729.18,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:45.446556Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-66197377b028.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.0698,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-ec359b168d17",
      "realistic_value": 484.902,
      "optimistic_value": 450,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Fully Tuned",
      "conservative_value": 425.17,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:30.625100Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec359b168d17.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_b972a0d0cef3926567aff71c",
  "input_rarity": "Classified",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 14.03,
      "skin_id": "skin-5a6a2858b51d",
      "listing_id": "516368488725604490",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a6a2858b51d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:27.914899Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 29.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-5a6a2858b51d",
      "listing_id": "658228540542942120",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a6a2858b51d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:27.914899Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 33.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-5a6a2858b51d",
      "listing_id": "653724940907193085",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a6a2858b51d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:27.914899Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 33.84,
      "skin_id": "skin-5a6a2858b51d",
      "listing_id": "521997935571238434",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a6a2858b51d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:27.914899Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 49,
      "skin_id": "skin-5a6a2858b51d",
      "listing_id": "526501422110359745",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a6a2858b51d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:26.835223Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 58.92,
      "skin_id": "skin-5a6a2858b51d",
      "listing_id": "640214142029415328",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a6a2858b51d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:26.835223Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 21.11,
      "skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "listing_id": "490472790737882031",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:54.374467Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 56.15,
      "skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "listing_id": "512990841907762019",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:05:41.352318Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 76.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
      "listing_id": "517494388634267590",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
      "name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:39.587140Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 80,
      "skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
      "listing_id": "497228190141566561",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
      "name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:39.587140Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Covert",
  "stattrak_mode": true,
  "composition_key": "Classified|Covert|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-35:6+collection-set-community-37:4"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Fever Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4
Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
20.0% $141.08
Printstream
AWP | Printstream
30.0% $127.68
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
20.0% $105.54
Bad Trip
FAMAS | Bad Trip
30.0% $74.69
$141.08
+67.5%
$110.03
+30.6%
70.0%+30.6%$84.23—
The Fever Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4
Classified → Covert Well-Worn ST
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
20.0% $100.30
Printstream
AWP | Printstream
30.0% $92.26
Bad Trip
FAMAS | Bad Trip
30.0% $76.22
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
20.0% $68.52
$100.30
+25.2%
$84.31
+5.3%
50.0%+14.8%$80.09—
The Fever Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4
Classified → Covert Battle-Scarred ST
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
20.0% $96.82
Printstream
AWP | Printstream
30.0% $88.49
Bad Trip
FAMAS | Bad Trip
30.0% $77.97
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
20.0% $65.86
$96.82
+23.3%
$82.47
+5.0%
50.0%+13.6%$78.51—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Fever Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3
Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
15.0% $141.08
Printstream
AWP | Printstream
35.0% $127.68
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
15.0% $105.54
Bad Trip
FAMAS | Bad Trip
35.0% $74.69
$141.08
+67.0%
$107.82
+27.6%
65.0%+31.1%$84.47—
The Fever Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Classified → Covert Factory New ST
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
45.0% $843.46
Printstream
AWP | Printstream
5.0% $745.73
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
45.0% $484.90
Bad Trip
FAMAS | Bad Trip
5.0% $145.99
$843.46
+65.7%
$642.35
+26.2%
50.0%+40.4%$508.96—
The Fever Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2
Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
10.0% $141.08
Printstream
AWP | Printstream
40.0% $127.68
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
10.0% $105.54
Bad Trip
FAMAS | Bad Trip
40.0% $74.69
$141.08
+67.0%
$105.61
+25.0%
60.0%+31.4%$84.50—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Fever Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
16.0% $51.27
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
16.0% $31.66
Amberline
MP7 | Amberline
16.0% $18.87
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
16.0% $14.51
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
16.0% $13.85
Rising Sun
Nova | Rising Sun
4.0% $12.48
$51.27
+204.5%
$22.69
+34.7%
48.0%+78.2%$16.84—
The Fever Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Restricted → Classified Factory New ST
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
30.0% $290.04
Shinobu
Glock-18 | Shinobu
3.3% $85.17
Searing Rage
AK-47 | Searing Rage
3.3% $65.16
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
30.0% $61.35
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
30.0% $56.41
K.O. Factory
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory
3.3% $49.28
$290.04
+197.8%
$128.99
+32.4%
30.0%+108.4%$97.39—
FS

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