The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +3.1%Factory New -7.9%Field-Tested +5.3%Minimal Wear +8.9%Well-Worn +1.7%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Pipsqueak

1x $0.35

Metallic Squeezer

1x $0.38

Teal Graf

1x $0.40

Sky Mandala

2x $0.36

Fraise Crane

2x $0.47

Earth Mandala

2x $0.52

↓

Possible Outputs

Exothermic

35.0% $7.30

Eye of Zapems

10.0% $4.33

Monster Melt

10.0% $4.28

Sweet Little Angels

10.0% $4.04

Sleeping Potion

35.0% $2.53

Max Win

$7.30 (+57.8%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.71 (+1.7%)

Win %

35.0%

Volatility

+43.7%

Cost

$4.63

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $4.63

Ask Price EV $4.71 (+1.7%)

Bid Price EV $4.47 (-3.5%)

Ask Profit $0.08 (+1.7%)

Bid Profit $-0.16 (-3.5%)

Liquidity Gap $0.24 (+5.2%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.08

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.16

Risk

Win Probability 35.0%

Loss Probability 65.0%

Best Case $7.30 (+57.8%)

Worst Case $2.53 (-45.3%)

Volatility +43.7%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%

Avg Win +$2.67

Avg Loss -$1.32

Bottom 5% Outcome $2.53 (-45.3%)

Std Dev $2.02

Avg Norm Float 0.4494

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 21m

Oldest Output Price 69h 53m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Tight

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

MAC-10 | Pipsqueak

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.35 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer

—

Field-Tested

$0.38 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

—

Field-Tested

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.42 Float: HIDDEN

Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane

—

Field-Tested

$0.47 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.52 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.54 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.57 Float: HIDDEN

Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane

—

Field-Tested

$0.62 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 45M 34S //TOTAL COST $4.63 //ASK PRICE EV $4.71 //BID PRICE EV $4.47 //ASK PROFIT $0.08 (+1.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.16 (-3.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $7.30 //VOLATILITY +43.7% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.31455199999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 7.304,
      "optimistic_value": 7.15,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 7.15,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:09.252150Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.31455199999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.5315,
      "optimistic_value": 2.5,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:36.382021Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.38195599999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
      "realistic_value": 4.3335,
      "optimistic_value": 4.19,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
      "conservative_value": 3.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:19:07.725357Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.36847519999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
      "realistic_value": 4.037,
      "optimistic_value": 4.03,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
      "conservative_value": 4.02,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:09:32.468935Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.33702,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
      "realistic_value": 4.277,
      "optimistic_value": 4.27,
      "output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
      "conservative_value": 4.27,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:47:38.811297Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_b3869724f42028678460dc6b",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
      "listing_id": "506235389470313256",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:09:04.709152Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.38,
      "skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
      "listing_id": "517494388633888114",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:58.014835Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
      "listing_id": "503983589619426907",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:52:15.905983Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "529879287551894796",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:56.970187Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "519746188258250360",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:56.970187Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.47,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "523123888073001142",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:40.394216Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "499479937455022969",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:38.630261Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.54,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "497228137697395481",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:10.078425Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.57,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "511864723318275141",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:38.630261Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.62,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "512990789045510051",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:40.394216Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.69	$26.79 +39.3%	$20.94 +8.9%	70.0%	+38.2%	$19.23	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 35.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Monster Melt 10.0% $4.28 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.05 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $4.04	$13.99 +43.5%	$10.27 +5.3%	70.0%	+42.3%	$9.75	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $7.30 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $3.78 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.53	$7.30 +62.0%	$4.65 +3.1%	35.0%	+45.3%	$4.51	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $3.03 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.28	$9.85 +143.2%	$5.08 +25.3%	30.0%	+78.6%	$4.05	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.03 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.28	$9.85 +149.4%	$4.83 +22.2%	41.7%	+75.0%	$3.95	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 10.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.69	$13.99 +57.6%	$10.44 +17.6%	73.3%	+17.0%	$8.88	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 15.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 23.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 23.3% $3.07 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.10	$9.85 +167.7%	$4.32 +17.3%	61.7%	+65.4%	$3.68	—