The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +26.1%Factory New -12.3%Field-Tested +4.7%Minimal Wear +0.5%Well-Worn +1.0%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear

Inputs

Wurst Hölle

2x $1.17

Metallic Squeezer

1x $2.25

Sky Mandala

3x $2.02

Warm Blooded

4x $2.27

↓

Possible Outputs

Eye of Zapems

10.0% $26.90

Exothermic

35.0% $26.70

Sweet Little Angels

10.0% $25.66

Sleeping Potion

35.0% $22.71

Monster Melt

10.0% $20.14

Max Win

$26.90 (+10.0%)

EV (ROI %)

$24.57 (+0.5%)

Win %

55.0%

Volatility

+9.5%

Cost

$24.45

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $24.45

Ask Price EV $24.57 (+0.5%)

Bid Price EV $23.28 (-4.8%)

Ask Profit $0.12 (+0.5%)

Bid Profit $-1.17 (-4.8%)

Liquidity Gap $1.29 (+5.3%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.12

Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.17

Risk

Win Probability 55.0%

Loss Probability 45.0%

Best Case $26.90 (+10.0%)

Worst Case $20.14 (-17.6%)

Volatility +9.5%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%

Avg Win +$2.10

Avg Loss -$2.31

Bottom 5% Outcome $20.14 (-17.6%)

Std Dev $2.33

Avg Norm Float 0.0822

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 24m

Oldest Output Price 73h 17m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Ask-Side Flip · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Minimal Wear

$1.17 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Minimal Wear

$1.49 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer

—

Factory New

$2.25 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Minimal Wear

$2.02 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.27 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.48 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.59 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.70 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Factory New

$3.52 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Factory New

$3.96 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 24S //TOTAL COST $24.45 //ASK PRICE EV $24.57 //BID PRICE EV $23.28 //ASK PROFIT $0.12 (+0.5%) //BID PROFIT $-1.17 (-4.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 55.0% //BEST CASE $26.90 //VOLATILITY +9.5% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.057553999999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 26.7035,
      "optimistic_value": 26.7,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 26.08,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:59.582780Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.057553999999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 22.713,
      "optimistic_value": 22.37,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 19.85,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:53.909848Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.069887,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
      "realistic_value": 26.901999999999997,
      "optimistic_value": 26.58,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
      "conservative_value": 26.58,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:59.815484Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.06742039999999999,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
      "realistic_value": 25.661,
      "optimistic_value": 25.64,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
      "conservative_value": 25.62,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.061665,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
      "realistic_value": 20.1355,
      "optimistic_value": 20.02,
      "output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
      "conservative_value": 19.85,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:05:50.047096Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_b3869724f42028678460dc6b",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.17,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "523123888072288378",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:31.713909Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "625579418033580202",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:31.713909Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.25,
      "skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
      "listing_id": "496102343225386739",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:59.449610Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.02,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "649223316122972524",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:33.392370Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "503983589620254115",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:26.247929Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "500605724248646447",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:26.247929Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.59,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "518620235868493708",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:26.247929Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472625089366055",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:26.247929Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "507361289453636653",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:30.436447Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.96,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "501731789729270537",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:30.436447Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $3.02 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.28	$9.85 +133.4%	$5.32 +26.1%	35.0%	+79.9%	$4.22	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 35.0% $13.81 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Monster Melt 10.0% $4.28 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.05 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $4.04	$13.81 +41.6%	$10.21 +4.7%	70.0%	+41.7%	$9.75	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Exothermic 35.0% $6.92 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 10.0% $4.28 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $4.04 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.57	$6.92 +52.4%	$4.59 +1.0%	35.0%	+40.5%	$4.54	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 6.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 6.7% $3.03 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.28	$9.85 +123.4%	$5.57 +26.3%	40.0%	+80.1%	$4.41	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $3.03 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $2.90 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.22	$9.85 +148.8%	$4.94 +24.8%	43.3%	+82.3%	$3.96	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.03 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.22	$9.85 +150.6%	$4.82 +22.5%	41.7%	+75.7%	$3.93	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 20.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 20.0% $3.03 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.22	$9.85 +158.5%	$4.57 +20.0%	40.0%	+71.1%	$3.81	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 15.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 23.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 23.3% $3.02 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.28	$9.85 +167.0%	$4.33 +17.4%	61.7%	+64.7%	$3.69	—