The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Pipsqueak
2x $0.34
Wurst Hölle
1x $0.36
Warm Blooded
4x $0.36
Sky Mandala
1x $0.48
Earth Mandala
2x $0.50
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $6.87
Eye of Zapems
10.0% $4.33
Monster Melt
10.0% $4.28
Sweet Little Angels
10.0% $3.78
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $2.57
Max Win
$6.87 (+59.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.54 (+5.1%)
Win %
45.0%
Volatility
+42.2%
Cost
$4.32
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $4.32
Ask Price EV $4.54 (+5.1%)
Bid Price EV $4.20 (-2.7%)
Ask Profit $0.22 (+5.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.12 (-2.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.34 (+7.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.22
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.12
Risk
Win Probability 45.0%
Loss Probability 55.0%
Best Case $6.87 (+59.0%)
Worst Case $2.57 (-40.6%)
Volatility +42.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%
Avg Win +$1.98
Avg Loss -$1.22
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.57 (-40.6%)
Std Dev $1.82
Avg Norm Float 0.5010
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 68h 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 43S //TOTAL COST $4.32 //ASK PRICE EV $4.54 //BID PRICE EV $4.20 //ASK PROFIT $0.22 (+5.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.12 (-2.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $6.87 //VOLATILITY +42.2% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$6.87
+$2.55
+59.0%
$6.60
+$2.28
+52.8%
$0.27
3.9%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$4.33
+$0.01
+0.3%
$3.48
-$0.84
-19.4%
$0.85
19.7%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$4.28
-$0.04
-1.0%
$4.27
-$0.05
-1.2%
$0.01
0.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.78
-$0.54
-12.5%
$3.31
-$1.01
-23.4%
$0.47
12.5%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$2.57
-$1.75
-40.6%
$2.25
-$2.07
-47.9%
$0.32
12.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.35069999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 6.868,
"optimistic_value": 6.7,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:33.426030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.35069999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.5675,
"optimistic_value": 2.55,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:39.137262Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.42585,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 4.3335,
"optimistic_value": 4.19,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 3.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:19:07.725357Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.41081999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 3.7815,
"optimistic_value": 3.75,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:28.723842Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.37575000000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 4.277,
"optimistic_value": 4.27,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 4.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:47:38.811297Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b3869724f42028678460dc6b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "528753387757469169",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:17.277965Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "517494388633336414",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:17.277965Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "528753387757470537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:51:06.122318Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "515242588555264309",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:28.889906Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "512990789045394995",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:28.889906Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "502857689862732112",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:28.993188Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "528753387757527561",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:35.666780Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "502857689862889576",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:23.080348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "517494336189226390",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:35.666780Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "497228137697395481",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:23.080348Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 35.0% $6.87 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 10.0% $4.28 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $4.04 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.57 | $6.87 +54.7% | $4.57 +2.9% | 35.0% | +40.9% | $4.44 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.69 | $13.60 +53.9% | $10.40 +17.7% | 73.3% | +16.1% | $8.84 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 25.0% $7.30 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $4.33 Monster Melt 16.7% $4.28 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $3.78 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.56 | $7.30 +76.4% | $4.53 +9.5% | 58.3% | +41.8% | $4.14 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 30.0% $7.30 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $4.33 Monster Melt 13.3% $4.28 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $3.78 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.56 | $7.30 +71.9% | $4.61 +8.5% | 56.7% | +44.3% | $4.25 | — |