The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Teal Graf
1x $0.87
Metallic Squeezer
1x $1.03
Wurst Hölle
1x $1.17
Fraise Crane
2x $0.47
Earth Mandala
2x $0.57
Warm Blooded
2x $1.05
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $13.99
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $11.82
Monster Melt
10.0% $4.28
Eye of Zapems
10.0% $4.05
Sweet Little Angels
10.0% $4.04
Max Win
$13.99 (+43.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.27 (+5.3%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+42.3%
Cost
$9.75
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $9.75
Ask Price EV $10.27 (+5.3%)
Bid Price EV $8.84 (-9.4%)
Ask Profit $0.52 (+5.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.91 (-9.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.43 (+14.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.52
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.91
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $13.99 (+43.5%)
Worst Case $4.04 (-58.6%)
Volatility +42.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$3.16
Avg Loss -$5.63
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.04 (-58.6%)
Std Dev $4.13
Avg Norm Float 0.2139
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 57h 21m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Ask-Side Flip · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Minimal Wear
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.57 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.62 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.12 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 45M 02S //TOTAL COST $9.75 //ASK PRICE EV $10.27 //BID PRICE EV $8.84 //ASK PROFIT $0.52 (+5.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.91 (-9.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $13.99 //VOLATILITY +42.3% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$13.99
+$4.24
+43.5%
$12.05
+$2.30
+23.6%
$1.94
13.9%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$11.82
+$2.07
+21.2%
$9.69
-$0.06
-0.6%
$2.13
18.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.28
-$5.47
-56.1%
$4.27
-$5.48
-56.2%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.05
-$5.70
-58.5%
$4.00
-$5.75
-59.0%
$0.05
1.2%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Field-Tested | ƒ 0.1754062
The Overpass 2024 Collection
NUKE
10.0%
$4.04
-$5.71
-58.6%
$4.02
-$5.73
-58.8%
$0.02
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.14973699999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.992,
"optimistic_value": 13.88,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.272042Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.14973699999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1818235,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 4.0475,
"optimistic_value": 4.03,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:00.253749Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.17540619999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 4.037,
"optimistic_value": 4.03,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 4.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:09:32.468935Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.16043249999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 4.277,
"optimistic_value": 4.27,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 4.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:47:38.811297Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b3869724f42028678460dc6b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "516368488726379318",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:36.287195Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "596305411430770513",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:45.369021Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "523123888072288378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:57:26.567550Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "523123888073001142",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:40.394216Z"
},
{
"price": 0.57,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864723318275141",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:38.630261Z"
},
{
"price": 0.62,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "512990789045510051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:40.394216Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494975741590866474",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:10.078425Z"
},
{
"price": 1.12,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "506235337025762268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:07.044611Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "502857689862550924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:59.276621Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "529879287551874600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:28.508952Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.69 | $26.79 +39.3% | $20.94 +8.9% | 70.0% | +38.2% | $19.23 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $7.30 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $3.78 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.53 | $7.30 +62.0% | $4.65 +3.1% | 35.0% | +45.3% | $4.51 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 35.0% $7.30 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 10.0% $4.28 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $4.04 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.53 | $7.30 +57.8% | $4.71 +1.7% | 35.0% | +43.7% | $4.63 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $3.03 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.28 | $9.85 +143.2% | $5.08 +25.3% | 30.0% | +78.6% | $4.05 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.03 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.28 | $9.85 +149.4% | $4.83 +22.2% | 41.7% | +75.0% | $3.95 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.69 | $13.99 +57.6% | $10.44 +17.6% | 73.3% | +17.0% | $8.88 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 15.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 23.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 23.3% $3.07 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.10 | $9.85 +167.7% | $4.32 +17.3% | 61.7% | +65.4% | $3.68 | — |