The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items

Battle-Scarred +3.1%Factory New -7.9%Field-Tested +5.3%Minimal Wear +8.9%Well-Worn +1.7%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New

Inputs

Wurst Hölle

2x $1.17

Metallic Squeezer

1x $2.68

Warm Blooded

5x $2.32

Earth Mandala

1x $2.36

Sky Mandala

1x $3.96

↓

Possible Outputs

Eye of Zapems

10.0% $27.45

Exothermic

35.0% $26.79

Sweet Little Angels

10.0% $25.66

Sleeping Potion

35.0% $24.63

Monster Melt

10.0% $20.38

Max Win

$27.45 (-0.2%)

EV (ROI %)

$25.35 (-7.9%)

Win %

0.0%

Volatility

+7.1%

Cost

$27.52

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $27.52

Ask Price EV $25.35 (-7.9%)

Bid Price EV $24.13 (-12.3%)

Ask Profit $-2.17 (-7.9%)

Bid Profit $-3.39 (-12.3%)

Liquidity Gap $1.21 (+4.4%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.17

Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.39

Risk

Win Probability 0.00%

Loss Probability 100.0%

Best Case $27.45 (-0.2%)

Worst Case $20.38 (-25.9%)

Volatility +7.1%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%

Avg Win —

Avg Loss -$2.17

Bottom 5% Outcome $20.38 (-25.9%)

Std Dev $1.96

Avg Norm Float 0.0700

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 14m

Oldest Output Price 72h 7m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Minimal Wear

$1.17 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Minimal Wear

$2.34 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer

—

Factory New

$2.68 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.32 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Factory New

$2.36 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.36 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.48 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.70 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Factory New

$3.96 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$5.15 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 45M 02S //TOTAL COST $27.52 //ASK PRICE EV $25.35 //BID PRICE EV $24.13 //ASK PROFIT $-2.17 (-7.9%) //BID PROFIT $-3.39 (-12.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $27.45 //VOLATILITY +7.1% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.048992999999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 26.787,
      "optimistic_value": 26.71,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 26.08,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:22.411318Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.048992999999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 24.63,
      "optimistic_value": 24.56,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 22.28,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.059491499999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
      "realistic_value": 27.4545,
      "optimistic_value": 27.43,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
      "conservative_value": 26.6,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:57.146340Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.05739179999999999,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
      "realistic_value": 25.661,
      "optimistic_value": 25.64,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
      "conservative_value": 25.62,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.0524925,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
      "realistic_value": 20.381,
      "optimistic_value": 20.36,
      "output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
      "conservative_value": 19.85,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:27.221596Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_b3869724f42028678460dc6b",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.17,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "523123888072288378",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:57:26.567550Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "494975741580158130",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:57:26.567550Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.68,
      "skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
      "listing_id": "523123888072619974",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:59.425876Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "505109437005132500",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:19.990067Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "516368488725166478",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:19.361827Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "517494388633380694",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:19.990067Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "500605724248646447",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:19.990067Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472625089366055",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:19.990067Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.96,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "501731789729270537",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:20.678258Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.15,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "521997822478339278",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:19.990067Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.69	$26.79 +39.3%	$20.94 +8.9%	70.0%	+38.2%	$19.23	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 35.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Monster Melt 10.0% $4.28 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.05 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $4.04	$13.99 +43.5%	$10.27 +5.3%	70.0%	+42.3%	$9.75	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $7.30 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $3.78 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.53	$7.30 +62.0%	$4.65 +3.1%	35.0%	+45.3%	$4.51	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Exothermic 35.0% $7.30 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 10.0% $4.28 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $4.04 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.53	$7.30 +57.8%	$4.71 +1.7%	35.0%	+43.7%	$4.63	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $3.03 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.28	$9.85 +143.2%	$5.08 +25.3%	30.0%	+78.6%	$4.05	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.03 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.28	$9.85 +149.4%	$4.83 +22.2%	41.7%	+75.0%	$3.95	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 10.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.69	$13.99 +57.6%	$10.44 +17.6%	73.3%	+17.0%	$8.88	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 15.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 23.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 23.3% $3.07 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.10	$9.85 +167.7%	$4.32 +17.3%	61.7%	+65.4%	$3.68	—