The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Tom Cat
3x $0.29
Bone Forged
1x $0.30
Desert Strike
1x $0.34
Shredded
4x $0.26
Red Tide
1x $0.31
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
16.7% $5.01
Glitched Paint
16.7% $2.93
Bleeding Edge
16.7% $2.10
Fever Dream
10.0% $1.28
Apocalypto
10.0% $0.83
Darkwing
10.0% $0.81
Max Win
$5.01 (+65.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.12 (-30.2%)
Win %
16.7%
Volatility
+49.8%
Cost
$3.03
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.03
Ask Price EV $2.12 (-30.2%)
Bid Price EV $1.95 (-35.5%)
Ask Profit $-0.91 (-30.2%)
Bid Profit $-1.08 (-35.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.16 (+5.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.91
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.08
Risk
Win Probability 16.7%
Loss Probability 83.3%
Best Case $5.01 (+65.2%)
Worst Case $0.73 (-75.8%)
Volatility +49.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.7%
Avg Win +$1.98
Avg Loss -$1.49
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.73 (-75.8%)
Std Dev $1.51
Avg Norm Float 0.4475
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 141h 2m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Desert Strike
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 12M 09S //TOTAL COST $3.03 //ASK PRICE EV $2.12 //BID PRICE EV $1.95 //ASK PROFIT $-0.91 (-30.2%) //BID PROFIT $-1.08 (-35.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 16.7% //BEST CASE $5.01 //VOLATILITY +49.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$5.01
+$1.98
+65.2%
$4.66
+$1.63
+53.8%
$0.35
6.9%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$2.93
-$0.10
-3.3%
$2.76
-$0.27
-8.9%
$0.17
5.8%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$2.10
-$0.93
-30.6%
$1.90
-$1.13
-37.3%
$0.20
9.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.28
-$1.75
-57.6%
$1.18
-$1.85
-61.1%
$0.10
8.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.83
-$2.20
-72.6%
$0.69
-$2.34
-77.2%
$0.14
16.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.81
-$2.22
-73.2%
$0.74
-$2.29
-75.6%
$0.07
9.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.77
-$2.26
-74.7%
$0.71
-$2.32
-76.6%
$0.06
7.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.73
-$2.30
-75.8%
$0.69
-$2.34
-77.2%
$0.04
5.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.33558750000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.29979150000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.9295,
"optimistic_value": 2.87,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:10:29.678346Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.26847,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.1035,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:29.933662Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44745,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 0.732,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:05:23.425999Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44745,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 0.7675000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:27.436850Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44745,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 0.8135,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:50:42.656562Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.322164,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 1.284,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 1.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:15.583125Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44745,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 0.8305,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:06.390088Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b0557e5d2ec315ea805152b7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "524249787960872331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:07:44.479110Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-3c54e05cbb62",
"listing_id": "524249787961211487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3c54e05cbb62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:02:20.637485Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "503983589619192331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:05.541902Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "527627487624085712",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:05.541902Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d536309c3714",
"listing_id": "511864836540413649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d536309c3714.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:43.846778Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:13.393527Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "527627435178804896",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:13.393527Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "527627435179581668",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:13.393527Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "498353293087104787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:01:17.510166Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "501731789730287357",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:31.514694Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.58 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.06 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 10.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +270.7% | $5.46 +27.1% | 50.0% | +112.3% | $4.30 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 16.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 16.7% $17.42 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $16.98 Fever Dream 10.0% $8.47 Acid Etched 10.0% $2.38 Darkwing 10.0% $2.29 | $33.42 +171.3% | $12.99 +5.4% | 50.0% | +81.3% | $12.32 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.58 Fever Dream 6.0% $3.03 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 6.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +192.5% | $7.10 +30.2% | 70.0% | +90.4% | $5.45 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.34 Fever Dream 8.0% $3.06 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 8.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +232.8% | $6.23 +30.1% | 60.0% | +103.1% | $4.79 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.58 Fever Dream 4.0% $3.03 Acid Etched 4.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 4.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +155.9% | $7.91 +27.0% | 53.3% | +78.0% | $6.23 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.58 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.03 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 12.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +328.5% | $4.65 +25.0% | 40.0% | +124.5% | $3.72 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.58 Fever Dream 2.0% $3.06 Acid Etched 2.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 2.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +126.4% | $8.73 +23.9% | 60.0% | +67.3% | $7.04 | — |