The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Tom Cat
1x $0.50
Blue Ply
2x $1.00
Prototype
2x $1.81
Shredded
3x $1.78
Rose Hex
1x $1.86
Blush Pour
1x $4.95
↓
Possible Outputs
Acid Etched
10.0% $34.68
Mulberry
16.7% $33.42
Glitched Paint
16.7% $17.42
Bleeding Edge
16.7% $16.98
Darkwing
10.0% $9.56
Enforcer
10.0% $9.50
Max Win
$34.68 (+73.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.45 (-7.7%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+49.7%
Cost
$19.98
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.98
Ask Price EV $18.45 (-7.7%)
Bid Price EV $17.48 (-12.5%)
Ask Profit $-1.53 (-7.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.50 (-12.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.97 (+4.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.53
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.50
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $34.68 (+73.5%)
Worst Case $8.47 (-57.6%)
Volatility +49.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$13.91
Avg Loss -$7.15
Bottom 5% Outcome $8.47 (-57.6%)
Std Dev $9.93
Avg Norm Float 0.0694
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 141h 59m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.06 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Factory New
$1.81 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Factory New
$1.89 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.79 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$3.34 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$4.95 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 12M 37S //TOTAL COST $19.98 //ASK PRICE EV $18.45 //BID PRICE EV $17.48 //ASK PROFIT $-1.53 (-7.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.50 (-12.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $34.68 //VOLATILITY +49.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$34.68
+$14.70
+73.5%
$32.11
+$12.13
+60.7%
$2.56
7.4%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$33.42
+$13.44
+67.3%
$31.48
+$11.50
+57.6%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$17.42
-$2.56
-12.8%
$16.69
-$3.29
-16.5%
$0.73
4.2%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$16.98
-$3.00
-15.0%
$16.48
-$3.50
-17.5%
$0.50
2.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.56
-$10.42
-52.1%
$9.24
-$10.74
-53.8%
$0.32
3.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.50
-$10.48
-52.4%
$8.94
-$11.04
-55.3%
$0.56
5.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.23
-$10.75
-53.8%
$8.74
-$11.24
-56.3%
$0.49
5.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$8.47
-$11.51
-57.6%
$8.00
-$11.98
-60.0%
$0.47
5.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.052087499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0465315,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.4155,
"optimistic_value": 17.37,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:02:21.876527Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.04167,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 34.675,
"optimistic_value": 34.5,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 32.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:31.771580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 9.503,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 8.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:07.910979Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 9.560500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 9.48,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 9.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:58:51.476242Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.050004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 8.4705,
"optimistic_value": 8.39,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:04:39.285295Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 9.234,
"optimistic_value": 9.22,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 8.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:04.916336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b0557e5d2ec315ea805152b7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "669488905360173675",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:05.541902Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "518620122759971524",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:01:21.644362Z"
},
{
"price": 1.06,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "523123091059693018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:01:21.644362Z"
},
{
"price": 1.81,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "490472738292643731",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:35.651804Z"
},
{
"price": 1.89,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "490471993865742543",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:35.651804Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "494976390476633226",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:31.529735Z"
},
{
"price": 1.79,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "500605889841179615",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:31.529735Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:08.701210Z"
},
{
"price": 3.34,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "529879121829916716",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:31.529735Z"
},
{
"price": 4.95,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "521997822479782266",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:05:26.316752Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.58 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.06 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 10.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +270.7% | $5.46 +27.1% | 50.0% | +112.3% | $4.30 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 16.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 16.7% $17.42 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $16.98 Fever Dream 10.0% $8.47 Acid Etched 10.0% $2.38 Darkwing 10.0% $2.29 | $33.42 +171.3% | $12.99 +5.4% | 50.0% | +81.3% | $12.32 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.58 Fever Dream 6.0% $3.03 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 6.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +192.5% | $7.10 +30.2% | 70.0% | +90.4% | $5.45 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.34 Fever Dream 8.0% $3.06 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 8.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +232.8% | $6.23 +30.1% | 60.0% | +103.1% | $4.79 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.58 Fever Dream 4.0% $3.03 Acid Etched 4.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 4.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +155.9% | $7.91 +27.0% | 53.3% | +78.0% | $6.23 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.58 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.03 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 12.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +328.5% | $4.65 +25.0% | 40.0% | +124.5% | $3.72 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.58 Fever Dream 2.0% $3.06 Acid Etched 2.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 2.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +126.4% | $8.73 +23.9% | 60.0% | +67.3% | $7.04 | — |