The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Prototype
3x $0.46
Tom Cat
1x $0.50
Blue Ply
1x $1.06
Blush Pour
2x $1.53
Shredded
1x $1.80
Rose Hex
1x $1.86
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
16.7% $33.42
Glitched Paint
16.7% $17.22
Bleeding Edge
16.7% $16.98
Fever Dream
10.0% $8.47
Acid Etched
10.0% $2.38
Darkwing
10.0% $2.29
Max Win
$33.42 (+166.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$12.96 (+3.2%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+88.8%
Cost
$12.56
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $12.56
Ask Price EV $12.96 (+3.2%)
Bid Price EV $12.36 (-1.6%)
Ask Profit $0.40 (+3.2%)
Bid Profit $-0.20 (-1.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.61 (+4.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.40
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.20
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $33.42 (+166.1%)
Worst Case $1.86 (-85.2%)
Volatility +88.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$9.98
Avg Loss -$9.17
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.86 (-85.2%)
Std Dev $11.16
Avg Norm Float 0.0932
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 143h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.06 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$2.16 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$2.24 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 10M 20S //TOTAL COST $12.56 //ASK PRICE EV $12.96 //BID PRICE EV $12.36 //ASK PROFIT $0.40 (+3.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.20 (-1.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +88.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$33.42
+$20.86
+166.1%
$31.48
+$18.92
+150.6%
$1.94
5.8%
—
WIN
16.7%
$17.22
+$4.66
+37.1%
$16.69
+$4.13
+32.9%
$0.53
3.1%
—
WIN
16.7%
$16.98
+$4.42
+35.2%
$16.48
+$3.92
+31.2%
$0.50
2.9%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$8.47
-$4.09
-32.6%
$7.96
-$4.60
-36.6%
$0.51
6.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.38
-$10.18
-81.1%
$2.24
-$10.32
-82.2%
$0.14
5.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.29
-$10.27
-81.8%
$2.02
-$10.54
-83.9%
$0.27
11.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.95
-$10.61
-84.4%
$1.88
-$10.68
-85.0%
$0.07
3.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.86
-$10.70
-85.2%
$1.72
-$10.84
-86.3%
$0.14
7.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.062417200000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.2205,
"optimistic_value": 17.07,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:08.704090Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.055896,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09316,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 2.3770000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 2.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:05:53.501560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09316,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 1.8575,
"optimistic_value": 1.84,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 1.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:51:34.902809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09316,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 2.291,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 2.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T07:19:18.742363Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0670752,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 8.4705,
"optimistic_value": 8.39,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 7.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:06.447809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09316,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 1.9535,
"optimistic_value": 1.95,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 1.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:28.335703Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b0557e5d2ec315ea805152b7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "631208917632812762",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:32.522054Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "492723793448175861",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:32.522054Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "655978715566164233",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:32.522054Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "669488905360173675",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:15.488001Z"
},
{
"price": 1.06,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "523123091059693018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:18.788756Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:55.143615Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "506235389468941512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:31.452519Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:45.007635Z"
},
{
"price": 2.16,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "492724590626509821",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:23.854281Z"
},
{
"price": 2.24,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "528753387757738845",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:25.825646Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.23 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.59 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Darkwing 10.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +258.2% | $5.50 +23.7% | 50.0% | +108.4% | $4.45 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.23 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.59 Fever Dream 8.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Darkwing 8.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +232.1% | $6.32 +31.7% | 60.0% | +102.3% | $4.80 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.34 Fever Dream 6.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Darkwing 6.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +188.8% | $7.04 +27.5% | 46.7% | +89.6% | $5.52 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.23 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.59 Fever Dream 2.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 2.0% $1.01 Darkwing 2.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +131.4% | $8.77 +27.3% | 60.0% | +68.4% | $6.89 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.34 Fever Dream 4.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 4.0% $1.01 Darkwing 4.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +155.5% | $7.84 +25.7% | 53.3% | +78.4% | $6.24 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.34 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Darkwing 12.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +310.9% | $4.63 +19.2% | 40.0% | +119.1% | $3.88 | — |