The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Bone Forged
1x $0.30
Tom Cat
2x $0.30
Desert Strike
1x $0.34
Prototype
1x $0.46
Rose Hex
3x $0.34
Shredded
1x $0.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
16.7% $15.94
Glitched Paint
16.7% $7.05
Bleeding Edge
16.7% $5.58
Fever Dream
10.0% $3.08
Acid Etched
10.0% $1.01
Darkwing
10.0% $0.97
Max Win
$15.94 (+265.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.46 (+25.2%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+119.9%
Cost
$4.36
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.36
Ask Price EV $5.46 (+25.2%)
Bid Price EV $4.94 (+13.3%)
Ask Profit $1.10 (+25.2%)
Bid Profit $0.58 (+13.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.52 (+12.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.10
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.58
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $15.94 (+265.6%)
Worst Case $0.95 (-78.1%)
Volatility +119.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$5.17
Avg Loss -$2.96
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.95 (-78.1%)
Std Dev $5.23
Avg Norm Float 0.1925
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 140h
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Desert Strike
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 28S //TOTAL COST $4.36 //ASK PRICE EV $5.46 //BID PRICE EV $4.94 //ASK PROFIT $1.10 (+25.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.58 (+13.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +119.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$15.94
+$11.58
+265.6%
$14.54
+$10.18
+233.5%
$1.40
8.8%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$7.05
+$2.69
+61.8%
$6.21
+$1.85
+42.4%
$0.84
12.0%
—
WIN
16.7%
$5.58
+$1.22
+28.0%
$5.14
+$0.78
+17.9%
$0.44
7.9%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.08
-$1.28
-29.4%
$2.78
-$1.58
-36.2%
$0.30
9.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.01
-$3.35
-76.8%
$0.87
-$3.49
-80.0%
$0.14
13.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.97
-$3.39
-77.7%
$0.85
-$3.51
-80.5%
$0.12
12.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.97
-$3.39
-77.8%
$0.88
-$3.48
-79.8%
$0.09
9.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.95
-$3.41
-78.1%
$0.85
-$3.51
-80.5%
$0.10
10.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1443525,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1289549,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 7.0535000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 6.98,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:11.303890Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.115482,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.581,
"optimistic_value": 5.49,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:45.829558Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19247,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 1.01,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:36:18.459472Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19247,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 0.9545,
"optimistic_value": 0.93,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:00:21.639195Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19247,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 0.9734999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:40.267351Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1385784,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 3.076,
"optimistic_value": 3.02,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 2.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:38.052738Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19247,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 0.9675,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 0.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:04:44.119941Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b0557e5d2ec315ea805152b7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-3c54e05cbb62",
"listing_id": "524249787961211487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3c54e05cbb62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:50.898364Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "503983589619192331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:07.503559Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "527627487624085712",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:07.503559Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d536309c3714",
"listing_id": "511864836540413649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d536309c3714.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:39.444344Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "631208917632812762",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:12.575807Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:06:12.103306Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:06:12.103306Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:28.290970Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293744649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:07.181569Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "519746188258477016",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:41.525652Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 16.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 16.7% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $16.98 Fever Dream 10.0% $8.45 Acid Etched 10.0% $2.38 Darkwing 10.0% $2.29 | $33.42 +171.5% | $13.00 +5.6% | 50.0% | +81.3% | $12.31 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.05 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.58 Fever Dream 8.0% $3.08 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Darkwing 8.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +234.2% | $6.27 +31.5% | 60.0% | +103.1% | $4.77 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.58 Fever Dream 6.0% $3.03 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 6.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +192.5% | $7.10 +30.2% | 70.0% | +90.4% | $5.45 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.95 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.48 Fever Dream 4.0% $3.18 Apocalypto 4.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 4.0% $1.01 | $15.94 +155.9% | $7.85 +26.0% | 53.3% | +78.3% | $6.23 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.95 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.48 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.18 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 | $15.94 +327.4% | $4.64 +24.4% | 40.0% | +123.5% | $3.73 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.05 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.58 Fever Dream 2.0% $3.03 Acid Etched 2.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 2.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +127.4% | $8.71 +24.3% | 60.0% | +67.6% | $7.01 | — |