The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Tom Cat
1x $0.29
Bone Forged
2x $0.30
Desert Strike
1x $0.34
Distressed
1x $0.36
Shredded
2x $0.26
Red Tide
2x $0.28
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
16.7% $5.01
Glitched Paint
16.7% $3.01
Bleeding Edge
16.7% $2.10
Fever Dream
10.0% $1.28
Apocalypto
10.0% $0.81
Acid Etched
10.0% $0.81
Max Win
$5.01 (+64.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.14 (-29.7%)
Win %
16.7%
Volatility
+49.7%
Cost
$3.04
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.04
Ask Price EV $2.14 (-29.7%)
Bid Price EV $1.96 (-35.5%)
Ask Profit $-0.90 (-29.7%)
Bid Profit $-1.08 (-35.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.17 (+5.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.90
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.08
Risk
Win Probability 16.7%
Loss Probability 83.3%
Best Case $5.01 (+64.7%)
Worst Case $0.79 (-74.1%)
Volatility +49.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.7%
Avg Win +$1.97
Avg Loss -$1.48
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.79 (-74.1%)
Std Dev $1.51
Avg Norm Float 0.4746
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 143h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Desert Strike
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 06S //TOTAL COST $3.04 //ASK PRICE EV $2.14 //BID PRICE EV $1.96 //ASK PROFIT $-0.90 (-29.7%) //BID PROFIT $-1.08 (-35.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 16.7% //BEST CASE $5.01 //VOLATILITY +49.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$5.01
+$1.97
+64.7%
$4.66
+$1.62
+53.3%
$0.35
6.9%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$3.01
-$0.03
-1.1%
$2.76
-$0.28
-9.2%
$0.25
8.2%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$2.10
-$0.94
-30.9%
$1.91
-$1.13
-37.2%
$0.19
9.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.28
-$1.76
-57.8%
$1.18
-$1.86
-61.2%
$0.10
8.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.81
-$2.23
-73.2%
$0.71
-$2.33
-76.6%
$0.10
12.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.81
-$2.23
-73.4%
$0.70
-$2.34
-77.0%
$0.11
13.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.81
-$2.23
-73.4%
$0.71
-$2.33
-76.6%
$0.10
12.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.79
-$2.25
-74.1%
$0.77
-$2.27
-74.7%
$0.02
2.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.3559425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.3179753,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 3.0075000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:58.502923Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.284754,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.1,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:51.265448Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.47459,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 0.81,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:28.995374Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.47459,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 0.81,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:06:31.858606Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.47459,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 0.787,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 0.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:32:44.673404Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.3417048,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 1.284,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 1.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:15.583125Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.47459,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 0.8135,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:27:18.500898Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b0557e5d2ec315ea805152b7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "524249787960872331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:44.257259Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-3c54e05cbb62",
"listing_id": "524249787961211487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3c54e05cbb62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:09.781643Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-3c54e05cbb62",
"listing_id": "507361237010235361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3c54e05cbb62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:09.781643Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d536309c3714",
"listing_id": "506235337026426216",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d536309c3714.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:47.743398Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "525375522202008871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:33.465971Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:25.126328Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "527627435178804896",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:25.126328Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "509613089304634059",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:02.838057Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "505109489449170920",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:17:18.870821Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "498353293087104787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:02.838057Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.91 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 10.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +275.1% | $5.47 +28.7% | 50.0% | +113.1% | $4.25 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.91 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 10.0% $2.38 Darkwing 10.0% $2.29 | $15.94 +172.5% | $5.93 +1.3% | 50.0% | +76.7% | $5.85 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.80 Fever Dream 6.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Darkwing 6.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +194.7% | $7.17 +32.6% | 70.0% | +90.4% | $5.41 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.23 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.59 Fever Dream 8.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Darkwing 8.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +232.1% | $6.32 +31.7% | 60.0% | +102.3% | $4.80 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.80 Fever Dream 4.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 4.0% $1.01 Darkwing 4.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +161.8% | $8.00 +31.3% | 53.3% | +79.0% | $6.09 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 Fever Dream 2.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 2.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 2.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +133.7% | $8.72 +27.9% | 30.0% | +69.1% | $6.82 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.80 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.18 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Darkwing 12.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +277.8% | $4.71 +11.6% | 40.0% | +109.6% | $4.22 | — |