The Breakout Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Abyss
3x $0.37
Aeolian Light
2x $0.27
Creep
2x $0.28
The Daily Deagle
3x $0.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
35.0% $5.61
Osiris
7.5% $3.32
Koi
7.5% $3.31
Tigris
7.5% $3.29
Supernova
7.5% $3.27
Trace Lock
35.0% $2.31
Max Win
$5.61 (+48.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.76 (-0.7%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+37.3%
Cost
$3.79
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.79
Ask Price EV $3.76 (-0.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.34 (-11.8%)
Ask Profit $-0.03 (-0.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.45 (-11.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.42 (+11.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.03
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.45
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $5.61 (+48.1%)
Worst Case $2.31 (-38.9%)
Volatility +37.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%
Avg Win +$1.82
Avg Loss -$1.02
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.31 (-38.9%)
Std Dev $1.41
Avg Norm Float 0.4452
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 147h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Abyss
—
Well-Worn
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Abyss
—
Well-Worn
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Abyss
—
Well-Worn
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 56S //TOTAL COST $3.79 //ASK PRICE EV $3.76 //BID PRICE EV $3.34 //ASK PROFIT $-0.03 (-0.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.45 (-11.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $5.61 //VOLATILITY +37.3% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
35.0%
$5.61
+$1.82
+48.1%
$5.00
+$1.21
+31.9%
$0.61
10.9%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$3.32
-$0.47
-12.5%
$2.73
-$1.06
-28.0%
$0.59
17.7%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$3.31
-$0.48
-12.7%
$2.96
-$0.83
-21.9%
$0.35
10.5%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$3.29
-$0.50
-13.2%
$2.73
-$1.06
-28.0%
$0.56
17.0%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$3.27
-$0.52
-13.7%
$2.88
-$0.91
-24.0%
$0.39
11.9%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$2.31
-$1.48
-38.9%
$2.13
-$1.66
-43.8%
$0.18
8.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-4|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-4"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.333885,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.6135,
"optimistic_value": 5.54,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:38.278338Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.311626,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.314,
"optimistic_value": 2.23,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:39.266711Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.44518,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c80f871a746d",
"realistic_value": 3.291,
"optimistic_value": 3.27,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tigris",
"conservative_value": 2.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Breakout Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T11:11:06.072041Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c80f871a746d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.133554,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b029cb49c14f",
"realistic_value": 3.3075,
"optimistic_value": 3.29,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Koi",
"conservative_value": 2.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Breakout Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T11:17:56.839390Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b029cb49c14f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.178072,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bf19fabb24ef",
"realistic_value": 3.269,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Supernova",
"conservative_value": 2.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Breakout Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Supernova (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T20:11:05.503262Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bf19fabb24ef.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.22259,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5e748c63e9a7",
"realistic_value": 3.318,
"optimistic_value": 3.29,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Osiris",
"conservative_value": 2.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Breakout Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Osiris (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T15:50:26.075939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5e748c63e9a7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_aeec055b3c0b80d3dbb53ede",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-ded653e7bd24",
"listing_id": "510739041954762286",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Abyss (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Abyss",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ded653e7bd24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:12:55.079300Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ded653e7bd24",
"listing_id": "497228190141767549",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Abyss (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Abyss",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ded653e7bd24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:12:55.079300Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-ded653e7bd24",
"listing_id": "491598638256293666",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Abyss (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Abyss",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ded653e7bd24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:12:55.079300Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "529879287550318068",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:36.919653Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "511864888986026637",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:30.335478Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "508487242222263242",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:30.335478Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "501731842662168941",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:56.494437Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "523123940969688190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:12.586936Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "510738989040034450",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:12.586936Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "494976224705666562",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:12.586936Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-4:3+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Breakout Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Koi 7.5% $5.00 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.90 Supernova 7.5% $3.48 Tigris 7.5% $3.37 Osiris 7.5% $3.14 | $12.05 +90.3% | $7.06 +11.5% | 35.0% | +58.7% | $6.33 | — |
The Breakout Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 35.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 35.0% $14.00 Supernova 7.5% $7.09 Osiris 7.5% $6.85 Koi 7.5% $5.00 Tigris 7.5% $3.71 | $26.93 +79.2% | $16.02 +6.6% | 35.0% | +57.9% | $15.03 | — |
The Breakout Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 35.0% $5.61 Osiris 7.5% $3.32 Tigris 7.5% $3.32 Koi 7.5% $3.31 Supernova 7.5% $3.27 Trace Lock 35.0% $2.31 | $5.61 +54.6% | $3.77 +3.7% | 35.0% | +38.9% | $3.63 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Breakout Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Koi 2.5% $5.23 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.93 Supernova 2.5% $3.48 Tigris 2.5% $3.37 Osiris 2.5% $3.09 | $12.05 +88.9% | $8.02 +25.7% | 45.0% | +57.5% | $6.38 | — |
The Breakout Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Koi 5.0% $5.23 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.93 Supernova 5.0% $3.48 Tigris 5.0% $3.37 Osiris 5.0% $3.09 | $12.05 +95.3% | $7.55 +22.4% | 40.0% | +60.2% | $6.17 | — |
The Breakout Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Koi 10.0% $3.35 Osiris 10.0% $3.32 Tigris 10.0% $3.32 Supernova 10.0% $3.27 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.23 | $6.12 +73.8% | $3.83 +8.8% | 30.0% | +44.4% | $3.52 | — |