The Breakout Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Abyss
3x $0.40
Aeolian Light
2x $0.27
Creep
3x $0.28
The Daily Deagle
2x $0.41
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
35.0% $5.85
Osiris
7.5% $3.32
Tigris
7.5% $3.32
Koi
7.5% $3.31
Supernova
7.5% $3.27
Trace Lock
35.0% $2.37
Max Win
$5.85 (+60.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.87 (+5.9%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+41.2%
Cost
$3.65
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.65
Ask Price EV $3.87 (+5.9%)
Bid Price EV $3.31 (-9.3%)
Ask Profit $0.22 (+5.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.34 (-9.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.56 (+15.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.22
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.34
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+60.3%)
Worst Case $2.37 (-35.2%)
Volatility +41.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%
Avg Win +$2.20
Avg Loss -$0.85
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.37 (-35.2%)
Std Dev $1.50
Avg Norm Float 0.4799
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 152h 28m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Abyss
—
Well-Worn
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Abyss
—
Well-Worn
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Abyss
—
Well-Worn
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 33M 06S //TOTAL COST $3.65 //ASK PRICE EV $3.87 //BID PRICE EV $3.31 //ASK PROFIT $0.22 (+5.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.34 (-9.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +41.2% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$5.85
+$2.20
+60.3%
$4.91
+$1.26
+34.5%
$0.94
16.1%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$3.32
-$0.33
-9.1%
$2.73
-$0.92
-25.2%
$0.59
17.7%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$3.32
-$0.33
-9.1%
$2.70
-$0.95
-26.0%
$0.62
18.6%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$3.31
-$0.34
-9.4%
$2.96
-$0.69
-18.9%
$0.35
10.5%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$3.27
-$0.38
-10.4%
$2.88
-$0.77
-21.1%
$0.39
11.9%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$2.37
-$1.28
-35.2%
$2.13
-$1.52
-41.6%
$0.24
10.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-4|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-4"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.3599175,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.33592299999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.366,
"optimistic_value": 2.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:36.738814Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.47989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c80f871a746d",
"realistic_value": 3.3175,
"optimistic_value": 3.3,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tigris",
"conservative_value": 2.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Breakout Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:38.472525Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c80f871a746d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.14396699999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b029cb49c14f",
"realistic_value": 3.3075,
"optimistic_value": 3.29,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Koi",
"conservative_value": 2.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Breakout Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T11:17:56.839390Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b029cb49c14f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.19195600000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bf19fabb24ef",
"realistic_value": 3.269,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Supernova",
"conservative_value": 2.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Breakout Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Supernova (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T20:11:05.503262Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bf19fabb24ef.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.239945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5e748c63e9a7",
"realistic_value": 3.318,
"optimistic_value": 3.29,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Osiris",
"conservative_value": 2.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Breakout Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Osiris (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T15:50:26.075939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5e748c63e9a7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_aeec055b3c0b80d3dbb53ede",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-ded653e7bd24",
"listing_id": "501731842661959133",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Abyss (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Abyss",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ded653e7bd24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:05.659491Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ded653e7bd24",
"listing_id": "497228190141767549",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Abyss (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Abyss",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ded653e7bd24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:05.659491Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-ded653e7bd24",
"listing_id": "491598638256293666",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Abyss (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Abyss",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ded653e7bd24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:05.659491Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "529879287550318068",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:57:54.017539Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "511864888986026637",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:52.084860Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "508487242222263242",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:52.084860Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "508487136896542430",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:52.084860Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "506235442367927376",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:53.352914Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "511864941882227217",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:46.337713Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "510738989040034450",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:46.337713Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-4:3+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Breakout Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Koi 7.5% $4.99 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 Supernova 7.5% $3.48 Tigris 7.5% $3.37 Osiris 7.5% $3.14 | $12.25 +90.1% | $7.14 +10.8% | 35.0% | +59.0% | $6.44 | — |
The Breakout Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 35.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 35.0% $14.39 Supernova 7.5% $7.09 Osiris 7.5% $6.85 Koi 7.5% $4.99 Tigris 7.5% $3.71 | $26.93 +78.3% | $16.16 +7.0% | 35.0% | +57.5% | $15.10 | — |
The Breakout Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 35.0% $5.85 Osiris 7.5% $3.32 Koi 7.5% $3.31 Tigris 7.5% $3.29 Supernova 7.5% $3.27 Trace Lock 35.0% $2.37 | $5.85 +53.6% | $3.86 +1.4% | 35.0% | +39.5% | $3.81 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Breakout Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 40.0% $6.12 Koi 5.0% $3.35 Osiris 5.0% $3.32 Tigris 5.0% $3.32 Supernova 5.0% $3.27 Trace Lock 40.0% $3.20 | $6.12 +71.3% | $4.39 +22.9% | 40.0% | +39.6% | $3.57 | — |
The Breakout Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Koi 2.5% $4.99 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.71 Supernova 2.5% $3.48 Tigris 2.5% $3.37 Osiris 2.5% $3.14 | $12.25 +81.1% | $8.00 +18.4% | 45.0% | +57.0% | $6.76 | — |
The Breakout Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Koi 10.0% $4.99 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.71 Supernova 10.0% $3.48 Tigris 10.0% $3.37 Osiris 10.0% $3.14 | $12.25 +94.4% | $6.59 +4.5% | 30.0% | +59.6% | $6.30 | — |