The Breakout Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Ivory
2x $0.83
Labyrinth
1x $2.36
Creep
2x $1.75
Aeolian Light
1x $1.91
Grip Tape
2x $2.14
The Daily Deagle
2x $3.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
35.0% $26.93
Tigris
7.5% $20.28
Trace Lock
35.0% $14.00
Supernova
7.5% $7.09
Osiris
7.5% $6.85
Koi
7.5% $5.00
Max Win
$26.93 (+20.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.26 (-22.6%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+36.0%
Cost
$22.30
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $22.30
Ask Price EV $17.26 (-22.6%)
Bid Price EV $16.83 (-24.6%)
Ask Profit $-5.04 (-22.6%)
Bid Profit $-5.47 (-24.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.44 (+2.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$5.04
Bid Slippage Buffer -$5.47
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+20.7%)
Worst Case $5.00 (-77.6%)
Volatility +36.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 57.5%
Avg Win +$4.63
Avg Loss -$10.24
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.00 (-77.6%)
Std Dev $8.02
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 15h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Ivory
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Ivory
—
Minimal Wear
$1.09 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Labyrinth
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.91 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.35 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$4.99 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 49S //TOTAL COST $22.30 //ASK PRICE EV $17.26 //BID PRICE EV $16.83 //ASK PROFIT $-5.04 (-22.6%) //BID PROFIT $-5.47 (-24.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +36.0% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
35.0%
$26.93
+$4.63
+20.7%
$26.63
+$4.33
+19.4%
$0.30
1.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$20.28
-$2.02
-9.1%
$19.81
-$2.49
-11.2%
$0.47
2.3%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$14.00
-$8.30
-37.2%
$13.19
-$9.11
-40.9%
$0.81
5.8%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$7.09
-$15.21
-68.2%
$6.96
-$15.34
-68.8%
$0.13
1.8%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$6.85
-$15.45
-69.3%
$6.82
-$15.48
-69.4%
$0.03
0.4%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$5.00
-$17.30
-77.6%
$4.92
-$17.38
-77.9%
$0.08
1.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-4|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-4"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.0523575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:17.581071Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.048866999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 13.998,
"optimistic_value": 13.76,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:33.036004Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c80f871a746d",
"realistic_value": 20.279,
"optimistic_value": 20.02,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tigris",
"conservative_value": 19.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Breakout Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:06:01.873710Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c80f871a746d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.020943,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b029cb49c14f",
"realistic_value": 4.996,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Koi",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Breakout Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Koi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:03.413256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b029cb49c14f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.027924,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bf19fabb24ef",
"realistic_value": 7.087999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 7.06,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Supernova",
"conservative_value": 6.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Breakout Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Supernova (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:10:07.677271Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bf19fabb24ef.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.034905,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5e748c63e9a7",
"realistic_value": 6.85,
"optimistic_value": 6.85,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Osiris",
"conservative_value": 6.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Breakout Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Osiris (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:02.255110Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5e748c63e9a7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_aeec055b3c0b80d3dbb53ede",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-70f8ab3bec6b",
"listing_id": "526501422105413309",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Ivory (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Ivory",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-70f8ab3bec6b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:24.069686Z"
},
{
"price": 1.09,
"skin_id": "skin-70f8ab3bec6b",
"listing_id": "510739041953774590",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Ivory (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Ivory",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-70f8ab3bec6b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:24.069686Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-4446c57d24ed",
"listing_id": "524249735517170403",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-4",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Labyrinth",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4446c57d24ed.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:13:21.213697Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "503983642532704231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:28.129147Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "524248990833803271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:28.129147Z"
},
{
"price": 1.91,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "512990841908585123",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:37.293182Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "526501640651063345",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:32.588818Z"
},
{
"price": 2.35,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620341243286300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:32.588818Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:59.082607Z"
},
{
"price": 4.99,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "658230515405375198",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:59.082607Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-4:3+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Breakout Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Koi 7.5% $5.00 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.90 Supernova 7.5% $3.48 Tigris 7.5% $3.37 Osiris 7.5% $3.14 | $12.05 +90.3% | $7.06 +11.5% | 35.0% | +58.7% | $6.33 | — |
The Breakout Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 35.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 35.0% $14.00 Supernova 7.5% $7.09 Osiris 7.5% $6.85 Koi 7.5% $5.00 Tigris 7.5% $3.71 | $26.93 +79.2% | $16.02 +6.6% | 35.0% | +57.9% | $15.03 | — |
The Breakout Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 35.0% $5.61 Osiris 7.5% $3.32 Tigris 7.5% $3.32 Koi 7.5% $3.31 Supernova 7.5% $3.27 Trace Lock 35.0% $2.31 | $5.61 +54.6% | $3.77 +3.7% | 35.0% | +38.9% | $3.63 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Breakout Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Koi 2.5% $5.23 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.93 Supernova 2.5% $3.48 Tigris 2.5% $3.37 Osiris 2.5% $3.09 | $12.05 +88.9% | $8.02 +25.7% | 45.0% | +57.5% | $6.38 | — |
The Breakout Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Koi 5.0% $5.23 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.93 Supernova 5.0% $3.48 Tigris 5.0% $3.37 Osiris 5.0% $3.09 | $12.05 +95.3% | $7.55 +22.4% | 40.0% | +60.2% | $6.17 | — |
The Breakout Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Koi 10.0% $3.35 Osiris 10.0% $3.32 Tigris 10.0% $3.32 Supernova 10.0% $3.27 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.23 | $6.12 +73.8% | $3.83 +8.8% | 30.0% | +44.4% | $3.52 | — |