The Genesis Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6
Restricted → Classified WW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Well-Worn StatTrak™
Inputs
Cat Fight
2x $1.17
Continuum
2x $1.86
Amberline
6x $2.08
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
20.0% $45.29
Ice Coaled
13.3% $17.51
Smoking Kills
13.3% $14.65
Mirror Mosaic
13.3% $14.00
Deathgaze
20.0% $9.04
Kintsugi
20.0% $7.96
Max Win
$45.29 (+133.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.61 (-4.0%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+70.8%
Cost
$19.38
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.38
Ask Price EV $18.61 (-4.0%)
Bid Price EV $17.19 (-11.3%)
Ask Profit $-0.77 (-4.0%)
Bid Profit $-2.19 (-11.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.42 (+7.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.77
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.19
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $45.29 (+133.7%)
Worst Case $7.96 (-58.9%)
Volatility +70.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 53.3%
Avg Win +$25.90
Avg Loss -$7.44
Bottom 5% Outcome $7.96 (-58.9%)
Std Dev $13.73
Avg Norm Float 0.4498
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 140h 41m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.20 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Continuum
—
Field-Tested
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Continuum
—
Field-Tested
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 01M 11S //TOTAL COST $19.38 //ASK PRICE EV $18.61 //BID PRICE EV $17.19 //ASK PROFIT $-0.77 (-4.0%) //BID PROFIT $-2.19 (-11.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $45.29 //VOLATILITY +70.8% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$45.29
+$25.90
+133.7%
$41.72
+$22.34
+115.3%
$3.56
7.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$17.51
-$1.87
-9.6%
$16.53
-$2.85
-14.7%
$0.98
5.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$14.65
-$4.73
-24.4%
$12.97
-$6.41
-33.1%
$1.68
11.4%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$14.00
-$5.38
-27.8%
$13.00
-$6.38
-32.9%
$1.00
7.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$9.04
-$10.34
-53.4%
$8.25
-$11.13
-57.4%
$0.79
8.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$7.96
-$11.42
-58.9%
$7.67
-$11.71
-60.4%
$0.29
3.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.44983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 45.285,
"optimistic_value": 44.9,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 41.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.425805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.44983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 7.96,
"optimistic_value": 7.89,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 7.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:49.694054Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.44983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 9.0395,
"optimistic_value": 8.98,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 8.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:52.693930Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.44983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5be0877a3d7",
"realistic_value": 17.511499999999998,
"optimistic_value": 17.2,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Ice Coaled",
"conservative_value": 16.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:04.772611Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5be0877a3d7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.44983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a59908982432",
"realistic_value": 13.9975,
"optimistic_value": 13.98,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic",
"conservative_value": 13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:12.780637Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a59908982432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.44983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-270e56729de6",
"realistic_value": 14.645999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 14.1,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Smoking Kills",
"conservative_value": 12.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:27:47.505219Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-270e56729de6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_aad6114528bc319ab29749f7",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"listing_id": "512990736599957219",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:47.475138Z"
},
{
"price": 1.2,
"skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"listing_id": "515242588554318589",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:47.475138Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"listing_id": "518620288312908832",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:42:56.249457Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"listing_id": "506235337025835096",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:42:56.249457Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361289452694821",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:37:55.238665Z"
},
{
"price": 2.09,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "514116688949678190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:37:55.238665Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "490472738292168531",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:37:55.238665Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "525375635593980187",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:16.497328Z"
},
{
"price": 2.31,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "505109489448722396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:16.497328Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182385829",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:16.497328Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-36:4+collection-set-community-37:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Ice Coaled 13.3% $115.81 Smoking Kills 13.3% $97.20 Mirror Mosaic 13.3% $92.70 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 | $290.04 +212.7% | $124.16 +33.9% | 46.7% | +91.6% | $92.76 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $63.86 Ice Coaled 13.3% $26.55 Smoking Kills 13.3% $21.84 Mirror Mosaic 13.3% $19.60 Kintsugi 20.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 20.0% $11.60 | $63.86 +196.7% | $26.69 +24.0% | 46.7% | +89.5% | $21.52 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $126.41 Ice Coaled 13.3% $51.44 Smoking Kills 13.3% $41.78 Mirror Mosaic 13.3% $37.87 Kintsugi 20.0% $22.62 Deathgaze 20.0% $20.41 | $126.41 +201.0% | $51.37 +22.3% | 33.3% | +92.8% | $42.00 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Ice Coaled 16.7% $115.81 Smoking Kills 16.7% $97.20 Mirror Mosaic 16.7% $92.70 Kintsugi 16.7% $65.51 Deathgaze 16.7% $61.47 | $290.04 +215.8% | $120.45 +31.2% | 66.7% | +85.0% | $91.84 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Ice Coaled 20.0% $115.81 Smoking Kills 20.0% $97.01 Mirror Mosaic 20.0% $92.70 Kintsugi 13.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 13.3% $61.47 | $290.04 +218.7% | $116.71 +28.2% | 73.3% | +77.3% | $91.01 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Liquidation  4.0% $11.18 Electrum  16.0% $10.69 Firebreathing  16.0% $6.12 Galigator  16.0% $3.26 Amberline 16.0% $3.21 Urban Sovereign  16.0% $3.19 | $11.18 +191.3% | $5.01 +30.6% | 36.0% | +75.6% | $3.84 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | The Oligarch  5.0% $961.24 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Full Throttle  5.0% $708.03 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 | $961.24 +70.8% | $681.23 +21.1% | 55.0% | +32.4% | $562.73 | — |