The Genesis Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6
Restricted → Classified MW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Continuum
2x $2.24
Ocular
1x $4.02
Cat Fight
1x $4.63
Urban Sovereign
6x $3.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
20.0% $126.41
Ice Coaled
13.3% $51.44
Smoking Kills
13.3% $41.78
Mirror Mosaic
13.3% $37.87
Kintsugi
20.0% $22.62
Deathgaze
20.0% $20.41
Max Win
$126.41 (+201.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$51.37 (+22.3%)
Win %
33.3%
Volatility
+92.8%
Cost
$42.00
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $42.00
Ask Price EV $51.37 (+22.3%)
Bid Price EV $45.95 (+9.4%)
Ask Profit $9.37 (+22.3%)
Bid Profit $3.95 (+9.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $5.41 (+12.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$9.37
Bid Slippage Buffer +$3.95
Risk
Win Probability 33.3%
Loss Probability 66.7%
Best Case $126.41 (+201.0%)
Worst Case $20.41 (-51.4%)
Volatility +92.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$54.42
Avg Loss -$13.16
Bottom 5% Outcome $20.41 (-51.4%)
Std Dev $38.99
Avg Norm Float 0.1499
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 6h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Continuum
—
Field-Tested
$2.24 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Ocular
—
Minimal Wear
$4.02 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Continuum
—
Minimal Wear
$4.03 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
—
Minimal Wear
$4.63 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.64 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 01M 11S //TOTAL COST $42.00 //ASK PRICE EV $51.37 //BID PRICE EV $45.95 //ASK PROFIT $9.37 (+22.3%) //BID PROFIT $3.95 (+9.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $126.41 //VOLATILITY +92.8% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$126.41
+$84.41
+201.0%
$112.39
+$70.39
+167.6%
$14.02
11.1%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$51.44
+$9.44
+22.5%
$44.36
+$2.36
+5.6%
$7.08
13.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$41.78
-$0.22
-0.5%
$36.68
-$5.32
-12.7%
$5.10
12.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$37.87
-$4.13
-9.8%
$34.99
-$7.01
-16.7%
$2.88
7.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$22.62
-$19.38
-46.1%
$20.66
-$21.34
-50.8%
$1.96
8.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$20.41
-$21.59
-51.4%
$19.37
-$22.63
-53.9%
$1.04
5.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 126.41149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 124,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 112.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.452841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 22.619999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 22.2,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 20.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:47.292146Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 20.407,
"optimistic_value": 19.98,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 19.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:47.338085Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5be0877a3d7",
"realistic_value": 51.4425,
"optimistic_value": 50.97,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Ice Coaled",
"conservative_value": 44.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:18.300982Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5be0877a3d7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a59908982432",
"realistic_value": 37.87,
"optimistic_value": 37.66,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic",
"conservative_value": 34.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:18.215380Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a59908982432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-270e56729de6",
"realistic_value": 41.7805,
"optimistic_value": 41.49,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Smoking Kills",
"conservative_value": 36.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:39.134721Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-270e56729de6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_aad6114528bc319ab29749f7",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.24,
"skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"listing_id": "514116523133455638",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:42:56.249457Z"
},
{
"price": 4.02,
"skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"listing_id": "516368488724774654",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Ocular",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:39.031698Z"
},
{
"price": 4.03,
"skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"listing_id": "510738936593698762",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Continuum (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:54.855663Z"
},
{
"price": 4.63,
"skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"listing_id": "496101493266291995",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:42:59.361331Z"
},
{
"price": 3.19,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "493850490550002916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:17.210220Z"
},
{
"price": 3.64,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "498354037510570279",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:17.210220Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605889840023871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:17.956271Z"
},
{
"price": 4.75,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "521997988014719718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:17.956271Z"
},
{
"price": 5.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605837398261191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:17.956271Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:17.956271Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-36:4+collection-set-community-37:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Ice Coaled 13.3% $115.81 Smoking Kills 13.3% $97.20 Mirror Mosaic 13.3% $92.70 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 | $290.04 +212.7% | $124.16 +33.9% | 46.7% | +91.6% | $92.76 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $63.86 Ice Coaled 13.3% $26.55 Smoking Kills 13.3% $21.84 Mirror Mosaic 13.3% $19.60 Kintsugi 20.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 20.0% $11.60 | $63.86 +196.7% | $26.69 +24.0% | 46.7% | +89.5% | $21.52 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Ice Coaled 16.7% $115.81 Smoking Kills 16.7% $97.20 Mirror Mosaic 16.7% $92.70 Kintsugi 16.7% $65.51 Deathgaze 16.7% $61.47 | $290.04 +215.8% | $120.45 +31.2% | 66.7% | +85.0% | $91.84 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Ice Coaled 20.0% $115.81 Smoking Kills 20.0% $97.01 Mirror Mosaic 20.0% $92.70 Kintsugi 13.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 13.3% $61.47 | $290.04 +218.7% | $116.71 +28.2% | 73.3% | +77.3% | $91.01 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Liquidation  4.0% $11.18 Electrum  16.0% $10.69 Firebreathing  16.0% $6.12 Galigator  16.0% $3.26 Amberline  16.0% $3.21 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $3.19 | $11.18 +191.3% | $5.01 +30.6% | 36.0% | +75.6% | $3.84 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | The Oligarch  5.0% $961.24 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Full Throttle  5.0% $708.03 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 | $961.24 +70.8% | $681.23 +21.1% | 55.0% | +32.4% | $562.73 | — |