The Revolver Case Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Ricochet
2x $0.25
Fraise Crane
1x $0.35
Warm Blooded
5x $0.36
Sky Mandala
2x $0.40
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
40.0% $7.65
Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.36
Avalanche
3.3% $2.24
Fuel Rod
3.3% $2.11
Teclu Burner
3.3% $1.98
Power Loader
3.3% $1.72
Max Win
$7.65 (+47.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.37 (-15.9%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+51.7%
Cost
$5.20
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.20
Ask Price EV $4.37 (-15.9%)
Bid Price EV $3.84 (-26.2%)
Ask Profit $-0.83 (-15.9%)
Bid Profit $-1.36 (-26.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.53 (+10.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.83
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.36
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $7.65 (+47.1%)
Worst Case $1.45 (-72.0%)
Volatility +51.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$2.45
Avg Loss -$3.01
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.50 (-71.1%)
Std Dev $2.69
Avg Norm Float 0.4421
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 143h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Ricochet
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Ricochet
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 59S //TOTAL COST $5.20 //ASK PRICE EV $4.37 //BID PRICE EV $3.84 //ASK PROFIT $-0.83 (-15.9%) //BID PROFIT $-1.36 (-26.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $7.65 //VOLATILITY +51.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
40.0%
$7.65
+$2.45
+47.1%
$6.58
+$1.38
+26.5%
$1.07
14.0%
—
NUKE
40.0%
$2.36
-$2.84
-54.6%
$2.25
-$2.95
-56.7%
$0.11
4.7%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$2.24
-$2.96
-56.9%
$2.00
-$3.20
-61.5%
$0.24
10.8%
—
NUKE THIN BID
3.3%
$2.11
-$3.09
-59.4%
$1.47
-$3.73
-71.7%
$0.64
30.4%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$1.98
-$3.22
-61.9%
$1.62
-$3.58
-68.8%
$0.36
18.3%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$1.72
-$3.48
-66.9%
$1.31
-$3.89
-74.8%
$0.41
23.8%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$1.50
-$3.70
-71.1%
$1.35
-$3.85
-74.0%
$0.15
10.2%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$1.45
-$3.75
-72.0%
$1.41
-$3.79
-72.9%
$0.04
3.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-10|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.309477,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.65,
"optimistic_value": 7.51,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:50:18.133470Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.309477,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.3615,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:36.302840Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.44211,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ef297140e6ea",
"realistic_value": 1.5035,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T17:40:37.986995Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ef297140e6ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.44211,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69c57b0e17a5",
"realistic_value": 1.72,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Power Loader",
"conservative_value": 1.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Power Loader (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T19:41:20.683614Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69c57b0e17a5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.44211,
"output_skin_id": "skin-13af73ca7ca5",
"realistic_value": 2.1115,
"optimistic_value": 2.01,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod",
"conservative_value": 1.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:38.742685Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-13af73ca7ca5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.44211,
"output_skin_id": "skin-460926660df2",
"realistic_value": 1.4545,
"optimistic_value": 1.43,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth",
"conservative_value": 1.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:26.842859Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-460926660df2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.44211,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4a49656a91ca",
"realistic_value": 2.2415,
"optimistic_value": 2.21,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:34:55.828827Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4a49656a91ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.2873715,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3932487f357b",
"realistic_value": 1.9835,
"optimistic_value": 1.98,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:36:45.587168Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3932487f357b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a9eada0c1b29892e1f0dcb80",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "516368488725827546",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:34:51.615107Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "501731789729326985",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:34:51.615107Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "525375688036657555",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.676723Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "510738989040015694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:31.782552Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:30.625958Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "499479989896979941",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:43.018740Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737290515",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:43.018740Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "494976390476927238",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:46.048994Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494975741590866474",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:43.018740Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "496102290328584671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:35.163110Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-10:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.17 Teclu Burner 6.7% $1.98 Avalanche 6.7% $1.90 Fuel Rod 6.7% $1.78 Tiger Moth 6.7% $1.76 | $9.85 +192.3% | $4.30 +27.7% | 30.0% | +103.6% | $3.37 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.17 Teclu Burner 8.3% $1.98 Avalanche 8.3% $1.90 Fuel Rod 8.3% $1.78 Tiger Moth 8.3% $1.76 | $9.85 +208.8% | $3.88 +21.5% | 25.0% | +104.0% | $3.19 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 5.0% $3.35 Avalanche 5.0% $3.23 Power Loader 5.0% $2.04 Retrobution 5.0% $2.01 | $13.94 +73.4% | $9.73 +21.0% | 70.0% | +52.5% | $8.04 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 10.0% $3.35 Avalanche 10.0% $3.23 Power Loader 10.0% $2.04 Retrobution 10.0% $2.01 | $13.94 +141.6% | $6.58 +14.0% | 40.0% | +82.5% | $5.77 | — |