The Revolver Case Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Ricochet
2x $0.24
Sky Mandala
2x $0.34
Fraise Crane
2x $0.35
Warm Blooded
4x $0.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
40.0% $9.85
Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.15
Teclu Burner
3.3% $1.98
Avalanche
3.3% $1.90
Fuel Rod
3.3% $1.78
Tiger Moth
3.3% $1.76
Max Win
$9.85 (+150.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.15 (+31.0%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+97.8%
Cost
$3.93
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.93
Ask Price EV $5.15 (+31.0%)
Bid Price EV $3.76 (-4.3%)
Ask Profit $1.22 (+31.0%)
Bid Profit $-0.17 (-4.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.39 (+35.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.22
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.17
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $9.85 (+150.6%)
Worst Case $1.48 (-62.4%)
Volatility +97.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$5.92
Avg Loss -$1.92
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.54 (-60.7%)
Std Dev $3.84
Avg Norm Float 0.5450
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 143h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Ricochet
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Ricochet
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 03M 00S //TOTAL COST $3.93 //ASK PRICE EV $5.15 //BID PRICE EV $3.76 //ASK PROFIT $1.22 (+31.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.17 (-4.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +97.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
40.0%
$9.85
+$5.92
+150.6%
$6.64
+$2.71
+69.0%
$3.21
32.6%
—
NUKE
40.0%
$2.15
-$1.78
-45.4%
$1.99
-$1.94
-49.4%
$0.16
7.2%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$1.98
-$1.95
-49.5%
$1.62
-$2.31
-58.8%
$0.36
18.3%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$1.90
-$2.03
-51.7%
$1.66
-$2.27
-57.8%
$0.24
12.5%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$1.78
-$2.15
-54.6%
$1.66
-$2.27
-57.8%
$0.12
6.9%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$1.76
-$2.17
-55.2%
$1.70
-$2.23
-56.7%
$0.06
3.5%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$1.54
-$2.39
-60.7%
$1.24
-$2.69
-68.4%
$0.30
19.7%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$1.48
-$2.45
-62.4%
$1.35
-$2.58
-65.6%
$0.13
8.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-10|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.381472,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 9.8505,
"optimistic_value": 9.77,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.381472,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.1455,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:46:56.869234Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.54496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ef297140e6ea",
"realistic_value": 1.4769999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T12:10:04.337357Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ef297140e6ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.54496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69c57b0e17a5",
"realistic_value": 1.5435,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Power Loader",
"conservative_value": 1.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Power Loader (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T05:56:02.474875Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69c57b0e17a5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.54496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-13af73ca7ca5",
"realistic_value": 1.783,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod",
"conservative_value": 1.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:48.783895Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-13af73ca7ca5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.54496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-460926660df2",
"realistic_value": 1.762,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:09.396707Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-460926660df2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.54496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4a49656a91ca",
"realistic_value": 1.8969999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche",
"conservative_value": 1.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:49.887533Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4a49656a91ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.35422400000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3932487f357b",
"realistic_value": 1.9835,
"optimistic_value": 1.98,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:36:45.587168Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3932487f357b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a9eada0c1b29892e1f0dcb80",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "519746022668094812",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:40.128402Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "529879287551329560",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:27.441346Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "503983589619270235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.052753Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "492724590626378025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:02.754180Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789729082221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:02.754180Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.052753Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "518620288314051868",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:05.155137Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737290515",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:05.155137Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605889841164747",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:05.155137Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589619183691",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:05.155137Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-10:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 5.0% $3.35 Avalanche 5.0% $3.23 Power Loader 5.0% $2.04 Retrobution 5.0% $2.01 | $13.75 +75.2% | $9.66 +23.1% | 70.0% | +53.1% | $7.85 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.90 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 6.7% $3.35 Avalanche 6.7% $3.23 Power Loader 6.7% $2.04 Retrobution 6.7% $2.01 | $13.90 +94.6% | $8.66 +21.3% | 60.0% | +64.1% | $7.14 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.90 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 8.3% $3.35 Avalanche 8.3% $3.23 Power Loader 8.3% $2.04 Retrobution 8.3% $2.01 | $13.90 +116.4% | $7.61 +18.6% | 50.0% | +74.1% | $6.42 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.78 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 10.0% $3.35 Avalanche 10.0% $3.23 Power Loader 10.0% $2.04 Retrobution 10.0% $2.01 | $13.78 +141.3% | $6.54 +14.5% | 40.0% | +82.6% | $5.71 | — |