The Revolver Case Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Ricochet
1x $1.18
Outbreak
1x $1.77
Earth Mandala
3x $2.30
Warm Blooded
4x $2.36
Sky Mandala
1x $3.96
↓
Possible Outputs
Retrobution
3.3% $34.98
Avalanche
3.3% $34.42
Exothermic
40.0% $26.82
Sleeping Potion
40.0% $24.63
Power Loader
3.3% $23.23
Fuel Rod
3.3% $17.86
Max Win
$34.98 (+33.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$25.37 (-3.1%)
Win %
46.7%
Volatility
+14.3%
Cost
$26.19
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $26.19
Ask Price EV $25.37 (-3.1%)
Bid Price EV $23.90 (-8.7%)
Ask Profit $-0.82 (-3.1%)
Bid Profit $-2.29 (-8.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.47 (+5.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.82
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.29
Risk
Win Probability 46.7%
Loss Probability 53.3%
Best Case $34.98 (+33.6%)
Worst Case $16.41 (-37.4%)
Volatility +14.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%
Avg Win +$1.75
Avg Loss -$3.07
Bottom 5% Outcome $16.88 (-35.5%)
Std Dev $3.74
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 144h 5m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Ricochet
—
Minimal Wear
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Outbreak
—
Factory New
$1.77 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$4.02 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 22S //TOTAL COST $26.19 //ASK PRICE EV $25.37 //BID PRICE EV $23.90 //ASK PROFIT $-0.82 (-3.1%) //BID PROFIT $-2.29 (-8.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $34.98 //VOLATILITY +14.3% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN EDGE FLOAT
3.3%
$34.98
+$8.79
+33.6%
$33.70
+$7.51
+28.7%
$1.28
3.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
3.3%
$34.42
+$8.23
+31.4%
$33.09
+$6.90
+26.3%
$1.33
3.9%
—
PAPER WIN
40.0%
$26.82
+$0.63
+2.4%
$25.96
-$0.23
-0.9%
$0.86
3.2%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$24.63
-$1.56
-6.0%
$22.28
-$3.91
-14.9%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
3.3%
$23.23
-$2.96
-11.3%
$21.69
-$4.50
-17.2%
$1.54
6.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
3.3%
$17.86
-$8.33
-31.8%
$16.88
-$9.31
-35.5%
$0.98
5.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
3.3%
$16.88
-$9.31
-35.5%
$16.65
-$9.54
-36.4%
$0.23
1.4%
—
LOSS
3.3%
$16.41
-$9.79
-37.4%
$16.18
-$10.01
-38.2%
$0.23
1.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-10|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.048951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.8185,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:19:51.910596Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.048951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ef297140e6ea",
"realistic_value": 34.979,
"optimistic_value": 34.93,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution",
"conservative_value": 33.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:47:53.069200Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ef297140e6ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69c57b0e17a5",
"realistic_value": 23.233999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 23.15,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Power Loader",
"conservative_value": 21.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:58:08.479167Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69c57b0e17a5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-13af73ca7ca5",
"realistic_value": 17.86,
"optimistic_value": 17.86,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod",
"conservative_value": 16.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:05.573082Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-13af73ca7ca5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-460926660df2",
"realistic_value": 16.8845,
"optimistic_value": 16.79,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth",
"conservative_value": 16.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:15.069905Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-460926660df2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4a49656a91ca",
"realistic_value": 34.423500000000004,
"optimistic_value": 34.21,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche",
"conservative_value": 33.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:34:05.516412Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4a49656a91ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.04545450000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3932487f357b",
"realistic_value": 16.405,
"optimistic_value": 16.23,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner",
"conservative_value": 16.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:08:13.489468Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3932487f357b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a9eada0c1b29892e1f0dcb80",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4",
"listing_id": "498353924436709975",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Ricochet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3ddb4cfeb4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:26.865875Z"
},
{
"price": 1.77,
"skin_id": "skin-c367da09c5bb",
"listing_id": "491598524992165442",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Outbreak",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c367da09c5bb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:52:57.827933Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.220874Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.220874Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:33.763709Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.220874Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:33.763709Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:33.763709Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "501731789729270537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.684841Z"
},
{
"price": 4.02,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526500790836642953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:33.763709Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-10:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.17 Teclu Burner 6.7% $1.98 Avalanche 6.7% $1.90 Fuel Rod 6.7% $1.78 Tiger Moth 6.7% $1.76 | $9.85 +192.3% | $4.30 +27.7% | 30.0% | +103.6% | $3.37 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.17 Teclu Burner 8.3% $1.98 Avalanche 8.3% $1.90 Fuel Rod 8.3% $1.78 Tiger Moth 8.3% $1.76 | $9.85 +208.8% | $3.88 +21.5% | 25.0% | +104.0% | $3.19 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 5.0% $3.35 Avalanche 5.0% $3.23 Power Loader 5.0% $2.04 Retrobution 5.0% $2.01 | $13.94 +73.4% | $9.73 +21.0% | 70.0% | +52.5% | $8.04 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Teclu Burner 10.0% $3.35 Avalanche 10.0% $3.23 Power Loader 10.0% $2.04 Retrobution 10.0% $2.01 | $13.94 +141.6% | $6.58 +14.0% | 40.0% | +82.5% | $5.77 | — |