The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +31.8%Factory New -9.3%Field-Tested +29.5%Minimal Wear +17.3%Well-Worn +2.8%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Bullfrog

2x $0.19

Caged

1x $0.20

Sky Mandala

1x $0.34

Fraise Crane

2x $0.35

Warm Blooded

4x $0.48

↓

Possible Outputs

Exothermic

35.0% $7.31

Liquidation

6.0% $2.49

Sleeping Potion

35.0% $2.48

Cat Fight

6.0% $0.96

Continuum

6.0% $0.93

Angel Eyes

6.0% $0.85

Max Win

$7.31 (+98.2%)

EV (ROI %)

$3.79 (+2.8%)

Win %

35.0%

Volatility

+72.0%

Cost

$3.69

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $3.69

Ask Price EV $3.79 (+2.8%)

Bid Price EV $3.58 (-2.9%)

Ask Profit $0.10 (+2.8%)

Bid Profit $-0.11 (-2.9%)

Liquidity Gap $0.21 (+5.6%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.10

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.11

Risk

Win Probability 35.0%

Loss Probability 65.0%

Best Case $7.31 (+98.2%)

Worst Case $0.83 (-77.5%)

Volatility +72.0%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%

Avg Win +$3.62

Avg Loss -$1.79

Bottom 5% Outcome $0.83 (-77.5%)

Std Dev $2.66

Avg Norm Float 0.4478

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 22m

Oldest Output Price 141h 40m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Tight

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P250 | Bullfrog

—

Field-Tested

$0.19 Float: HIDDEN

SCAR-20 | Caged

—

Field-Tested

$0.20 Float: HIDDEN

P250 | Bullfrog

—

Field-Tested

$0.26 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.35 Float: HIDDEN

Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.48 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.49 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.50 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.51 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 05S //TOTAL COST $3.69 //ASK PRICE EV $3.79 //BID PRICE EV $3.58 //ASK PROFIT $0.10 (+2.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.11 (-2.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $7.31 //VOLATILITY +72.0% //

Possible Outputs · 7

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.313432,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 7.3135,
      "optimistic_value": 7.24,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 7.05,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:07:21.447988Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.313432,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.4785,
      "optimistic_value": 2.44,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:34.263433Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.44776,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
      "realistic_value": 0.8534999999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 0.85,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
      "conservative_value": 0.83,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:31:00.709077Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.44776,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
      "realistic_value": 2.4935,
      "optimistic_value": 2.49,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
      "conservative_value": 2.2,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:16.804583Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.44776,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
      "realistic_value": 0.964,
      "optimistic_value": 0.95,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
      "conservative_value": 0.82,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T05:51:56.092922Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.44776,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
      "realistic_value": 0.8305,
      "optimistic_value": 0.82,
      "output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
      "conservative_value": 0.81,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:31.056049Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.44776,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
      "realistic_value": 0.9305,
      "optimistic_value": 0.92,
      "output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
      "conservative_value": 0.82,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:07.840943Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_88dc35ec7900f3d9c2e51c02",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
      "listing_id": "492724538183335041",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:20.468133Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.2,
      "skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
      "listing_id": "518620235869812748",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:03.596949Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
      "listing_id": "505108692500795132",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:20.468133Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "503983589619270235",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:52.782325Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "492724590626378025",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:07.971679Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "501731789729082221",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:07.971679Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "518620288314051868",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472790737290515",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "500605889841164747",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "503983589619183691",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.15 Liquidation 6.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 6.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 6.0% $0.74 Ocular 6.0% $0.73	$9.85 +191.4%	$4.46 +31.8%	35.0%	+114.9%	$3.38	—
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 35.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Ocular 6.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 6.0% $1.07	$13.75 +88.4%	$9.45 +29.5%	70.0%	+65.3%	$7.30	—
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Liquidation 6.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 6.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 6.0% $2.14 Ocular 6.0% $2.05	$26.79 +65.7%	$18.97 +17.3%	70.0%	+59.0%	$16.17	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 20.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Ocular 12.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 12.0% $1.07	$13.75 +202.9%	$6.12 +34.9%	40.0%	+116.0%	$4.54	—
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.15 Liquidation 2.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 2.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 2.0% $0.74 Ocular 2.0% $0.73	$9.85 +139.7%	$5.48 +33.4%	45.0%	+95.1%	$4.11	—
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 25.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Ocular 10.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 10.0% $1.07	$13.33 +149.1%	$7.13 +33.2%	50.0%	+97.1%	$5.35	—
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 30.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Ocular 8.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 8.0% $1.07	$13.75 +116.6%	$8.34 +31.4%	60.0%	+81.0%	$6.35	—
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 15.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Ocular 14.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 14.0% $1.07	$13.75 +257.2%	$5.01 +30.1%	44.0%	+129.8%	$3.85	—
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Exothermic 10.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.14 Ocular 16.0% $2.05	$13.75 +198.3%	$5.14 +11.5%	36.0%	+89.9%	$4.61	—
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Exothermic 5.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.14 Ocular 18.0% $2.05	$13.75 +250.8%	$4.18 +6.7%	28.0%	+88.0%	$3.92	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear	Party Animal 40.0% $158.85 Ice Coaled 20.0% $24.72 Smoking Kills 20.0% $19.40 Mirror Mosaic 20.0% $16.72	$158.85 +114.6%	$75.71 +2.3%	40.0%	+91.8%	$74.03	—