The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Trigger Discipline
1x $0.58
Red Wing
2x $0.65
Warm Blooded
5x $2.27
Earth Mandala
1x $2.47
Sky Mandala
1x $3.96
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $24.63
Liquidation
6.0% $19.42
Cat Fight
6.0% $6.52
Angel Eyes
6.0% $6.27
Continuum
6.0% $6.13
Max Win
$26.79 (+17.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$20.66 (-9.3%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+36.4%
Cost
$22.77
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $22.77
Ask Price EV $20.66 (-9.3%)
Bid Price EV $19.32 (-15.2%)
Ask Profit $-2.11 (-9.3%)
Bid Profit $-3.45 (-15.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.34 (+5.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.11
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.45
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+17.6%)
Worst Case $6.09 (-73.3%)
Volatility +36.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 24.0%
Avg Win +$2.94
Avg Loss -$13.88
Bottom 5% Outcome $6.09 (-73.3%)
Std Dev $8.28
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 141h 45m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Trigger Discipline
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$4.02 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 07S //TOTAL COST $22.77 //ASK PRICE EV $20.66 //BID PRICE EV $19.32 //ASK PROFIT $-2.11 (-9.3%) //BID PROFIT $-3.45 (-15.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +36.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
35.0%
$26.79
+$4.02
+17.6%
$25.92
+$3.15
+13.8%
$0.87
3.2%
—
PAPER WIN
35.0%
$24.63
+$1.86
+8.2%
$22.28
-$0.49
-2.2%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$19.42
-$3.35
-14.7%
$16.07
-$6.70
-29.4%
$3.35
17.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$6.52
-$16.25
-71.4%
$6.35
-$16.42
-72.1%
$0.17
2.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$6.27
-$16.50
-72.5%
$6.21
-$16.56
-72.7%
$0.06
1.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$6.13
-$16.64
-73.1%
$6.12
-$16.65
-73.1%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$6.09
-$16.68
-73.3%
$6.07
-$16.70
-73.3%
$0.02
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.048873999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:26.098048Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.048873999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 6.27,
"optimistic_value": 6.27,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:18:32.964879Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 19.4155,
"optimistic_value": 19.37,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 16.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:11:14.220331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 6.52,
"optimistic_value": 6.52,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 6.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.769773Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 6.09,
"optimistic_value": 6.09,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 6.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:01.626950Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 6.13,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:33.085718Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_88dc35ec7900f3d9c2e51c02",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-ab9a15ef8110",
"listing_id": "643593816553635061",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab9a15ef8110.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:02.427705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "514116636505205970",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:30.601154Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "519745391330807492",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:30.601154Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737055183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:32.513889Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "501731789729270537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:34.539038Z"
},
{
"price": 4.02,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526500790836642953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.15 Liquidation 6.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 6.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 6.0% $0.74 Ocular 6.0% $0.73 | $9.85 +191.4% | $4.46 +31.8% | 35.0% | +114.9% | $3.38 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Ocular 6.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 6.0% $1.07 | $13.75 +88.4% | $9.45 +29.5% | 70.0% | +65.3% | $7.30 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Liquidation 6.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 6.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 6.0% $2.14 Ocular 6.0% $2.05 | $26.79 +65.7% | $18.97 +17.3% | 70.0% | +59.0% | $16.17 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 35.0% $7.31 Liquidation 6.0% $2.49 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.48 Cat Fight 6.0% $0.96 Continuum 6.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 6.0% $0.85 | $7.31 +98.2% | $3.79 +2.8% | 35.0% | +69.3% | $3.69 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Ocular 12.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 12.0% $1.07 | $13.75 +202.9% | $6.12 +34.9% | 40.0% | +116.0% | $4.54 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.15 Liquidation 2.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 2.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 2.0% $0.74 Ocular 2.0% $0.73 | $9.85 +139.7% | $5.48 +33.4% | 45.0% | +95.1% | $4.11 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Ocular 10.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 10.0% $1.07 | $13.33 +149.1% | $7.13 +33.2% | 50.0% | +97.1% | $5.35 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Ocular 8.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 8.0% $1.07 | $13.75 +116.6% | $8.34 +31.4% | 60.0% | +81.0% | $6.35 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Ocular 14.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 14.0% $1.07 | $13.75 +257.2% | $5.01 +30.1% | 44.0% | +129.8% | $3.85 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 10.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.14 Ocular 16.0% $2.05 | $13.75 +198.3% | $5.14 +11.5% | 36.0% | +89.9% | $4.61 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 5.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.14 Ocular 18.0% $2.05 | $13.75 +250.8% | $4.18 +6.7% | 28.0% | +88.0% | $3.92 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Party Animal  40.0% $158.85 Ice Coaled  20.0% $24.72 Smoking Kills  20.0% $19.40 Mirror Mosaic  20.0% $16.72 | $158.85 +114.6% | $75.71 +2.3% | 40.0% | +91.8% | $74.03 | — |