The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Caged
1x $0.20
Bullfrog
1x $0.26
MAGnitude
1x $0.36
Warm Blooded
5x $0.51
Earth Mandala
2x $0.70
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $11.82
Liquidation
6.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
6.0% $1.13
Ocular
6.0% $1.11
Angel Eyes
6.0% $1.07
Max Win
$13.75 (+88.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.45 (+29.5%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+71.2%
Cost
$7.30
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.30
Ask Price EV $9.45 (+29.5%)
Bid Price EV $8.09 (+10.8%)
Ask Profit $2.15 (+29.5%)
Bid Profit $0.79 (+10.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.37 (+18.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.15
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.79
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $13.75 (+88.4%)
Worst Case $1.05 (-85.6%)
Volatility +71.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$5.49
Avg Loss -$5.62
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.05 (-85.6%)
Std Dev $5.19
Avg Norm Float 0.2142
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 13m
Oldest Output Price 141h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | MAGnitude
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.04 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 06S //TOTAL COST $7.30 //ASK PRICE EV $9.45 //BID PRICE EV $8.09 //ASK PROFIT $2.15 (+29.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.79 (+10.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $13.75 //VOLATILITY +71.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$13.75
+$6.45
+88.4%
$12.11
+$4.81
+65.9%
$1.64
11.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$11.82
+$4.52
+61.9%
$9.69
+$2.39
+32.7%
$2.13
18.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.01
-$3.29
-45.0%
$3.61
-$3.69
-50.5%
$0.40
10.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.13
-$6.17
-84.5%
$1.04
-$6.26
-85.8%
$0.09
8.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.11
-$6.19
-84.9%
$1.01
-$6.29
-86.2%
$0.10
8.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.07
-$6.23
-85.3%
$1.00
-$6.30
-86.3%
$0.07
6.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.05
-$6.25
-85.6%
$0.95
-$6.35
-87.0%
$0.10
9.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.149975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.751,
"optimistic_value": 13.66,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:18:25.864602Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.149975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.21425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 1.0745,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:46.995200Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.21425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 4.0145,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:12.174520Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.21425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 1.1305,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T20:16:13.485553Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.21425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 1.1055,
"optimistic_value": 1.06,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:46.348299Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.21425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 1.054,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:08.558031Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_88dc35ec7900f3d9c2e51c02",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "518620235869812748",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:03.596949Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "505108692500795132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:20.468133Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-e8947585ba24",
"listing_id": "506235389469351588",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8947585ba24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:42:26.448824Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589619183691",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "518620288313571268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:28.470121Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "499479989895637069",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:28.470121Z"
},
{
"price": 1.04,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "496102290329392043",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:43.210790Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "520872088106733504",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:43.210790Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "496102290328584671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:43.210790Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472738290593603",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:43.210790Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.15 Liquidation 6.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 6.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 6.0% $0.74 Ocular 6.0% $0.73 | $9.85 +191.4% | $4.46 +31.8% | 35.0% | +114.9% | $3.38 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Liquidation 6.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 6.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 6.0% $2.14 Ocular 6.0% $2.05 | $26.79 +65.7% | $18.97 +17.3% | 70.0% | +59.0% | $16.17 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 35.0% $7.31 Liquidation 6.0% $2.49 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.48 Cat Fight 6.0% $0.96 Continuum 6.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 6.0% $0.85 | $7.31 +98.2% | $3.79 +2.8% | 35.0% | +69.3% | $3.69 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Ocular 12.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 12.0% $1.07 | $13.75 +202.9% | $6.12 +34.9% | 40.0% | +116.0% | $4.54 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.15 Liquidation 2.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 2.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 2.0% $0.74 Ocular 2.0% $0.73 | $9.85 +139.7% | $5.48 +33.4% | 45.0% | +95.1% | $4.11 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Ocular 10.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 10.0% $1.07 | $13.33 +149.1% | $7.13 +33.2% | 50.0% | +97.1% | $5.35 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Ocular 8.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 8.0% $1.07 | $13.75 +116.6% | $8.34 +31.4% | 60.0% | +81.0% | $6.35 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Ocular 14.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 14.0% $1.07 | $13.75 +257.2% | $5.01 +30.1% | 44.0% | +129.8% | $3.85 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 10.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.14 Ocular 16.0% $2.05 | $13.75 +198.3% | $5.14 +11.5% | 36.0% | +89.9% | $4.61 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 5.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.14 Ocular 18.0% $2.05 | $13.75 +250.8% | $4.18 +6.7% | 28.0% | +88.0% | $3.92 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Party Animal  40.0% $158.85 Ice Coaled  20.0% $24.72 Smoking Kills  20.0% $19.40 Mirror Mosaic  20.0% $16.72 | $158.85 +114.6% | $75.71 +2.3% | 40.0% | +91.8% | $74.03 | — |