← Results

The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Battle-Scarred +31.8%Factory New -9.3%Field-Tested +29.5%Minimal Wear +17.3%Well-Worn +2.8%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Trigger Discipline
AUG | Trigger Discipline
1x $0.60
Red Wing
P2000 | Red Wing
2x $0.65
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
5x $1.17
Sky Mandala
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
1x $2.00
Earth Mandala
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
1x $2.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
35.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
35.0% $24.63
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
6.0% $7.67
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
6.0% $2.29
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
6.0% $2.14
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
6.0% $2.05
Max Win
$26.79 (+65.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.97 (+17.3%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+64.4%
Cost
$16.17
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $16.17
Ask Price EV $18.97 (+17.3%)
Bid Price EV $17.76 (+9.8%)
Ask Profit $2.80 (+17.3%)
Bid Profit $1.59 (+9.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.21 (+7.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.80
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.59
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+65.7%)
Worst Case $2.00 (-87.6%)
Volatility +64.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$9.54
Avg Loss -$12.94
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.00 (-87.6%)
Std Dev $10.41
Avg Norm Float 0.1000
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 141h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Trigger Discipline
—
Minimal Wear
AUG | Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 05S //TOTAL COST $16.17 //ASK PRICE EV $18.97 //BID PRICE EV $17.76 //ASK PROFIT $2.80 (+17.3%) //BID PROFIT $1.59 (+9.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +64.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.06998599999999999,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 26.787,
      "optimistic_value": 26.71,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 25.92,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:26.098048Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.06998599999999999,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 24.63,
      "optimistic_value": 24.56,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 22.28,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.09998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
      "realistic_value": 2.14,
      "optimistic_value": 2.14,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
      "conservative_value": 2.03,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:34.913684Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.09998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
      "realistic_value": 7.667,
      "optimistic_value": 7.66,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
      "conservative_value": 6.71,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.771865Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.09998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
      "realistic_value": 2.2944999999999998,
      "optimistic_value": 2.27,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
      "conservative_value": 2.04,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:18.346849Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.09998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
      "realistic_value": 2.0505,
      "optimistic_value": 2.04,
      "output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
      "conservative_value": 2.03,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:20.381834Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.09998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
      "realistic_value": 2,
      "optimistic_value": 2,
      "output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
      "conservative_value": 1.99,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:08:20.953130Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_88dc35ec7900f3d9c2e51c02",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.6,
      "skin_id": "skin-ab9a15ef8110",
      "listing_id": "654852815710192099",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab9a15ef8110.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:02.427705Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.65,
      "skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
      "listing_id": "514116636505205970",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:30.601154Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.69,
      "skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
      "listing_id": "519745391330807492",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:30.601154Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.17,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472738290593603",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:43.210790Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "510738823413937978",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:43.210790Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "623327618334919058",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:32.154211Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472790737055183",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "517494388633380694",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.47,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "496102290329375051",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:32.513889Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472625089366055",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
35.0% $9.85
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
35.0% $2.15
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
6.0% $1.36
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
6.0% $0.80
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
6.0% $0.74
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
6.0% $0.73
$9.85
+191.4%
$4.46
+31.8%
35.0%+114.9%$3.38—
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
35.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
35.0% $11.82
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
6.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
6.0% $1.13
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
6.0% $1.11
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
6.0% $1.07
$13.75
+88.4%
$9.45
+29.5%
70.0%+65.3%$7.30—
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
35.0% $7.31
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
6.0% $2.49
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
35.0% $2.48
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
6.0% $0.96
Continuum
UMP-45 | Continuum
6.0% $0.93
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
6.0% $0.85
$7.31
+98.2%
$3.79
+2.8%
35.0%+69.3%$3.69—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
20.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
20.0% $11.82
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
12.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
12.0% $1.13
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
12.0% $1.11
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
12.0% $1.07
$13.75
+202.9%
$6.12
+34.9%
40.0%+116.0%$4.54—
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
45.0% $9.85
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
45.0% $2.15
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
2.0% $1.36
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
2.0% $0.80
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
2.0% $0.74
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
2.0% $0.73
$9.85
+139.7%
$5.48
+33.4%
45.0%+95.1%$4.11—
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
25.0% $13.33
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
25.0% $11.82
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
10.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
10.0% $1.13
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
10.0% $1.11
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
10.0% $1.07
$13.33
+149.1%
$7.13
+33.2%
50.0%+97.1%$5.35—
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
30.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
30.0% $11.82
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
8.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
8.0% $1.13
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
8.0% $1.11
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
8.0% $1.07
$13.75
+116.6%
$8.34
+31.4%
60.0%+81.0%$6.35—
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $11.82
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
14.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
14.0% $1.13
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
14.0% $1.11
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
14.0% $1.07
$13.75
+257.2%
$5.01
+30.1%
44.0%+129.8%$3.85—
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
10.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
10.0% $11.82
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
16.0% $7.67
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
16.0% $2.29
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
16.0% $2.14
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
16.0% $2.05
$13.75
+198.3%
$5.14
+11.5%
36.0%+89.9%$4.61—
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
5.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
5.0% $11.82
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
18.0% $7.67
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
18.0% $2.28
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
18.0% $2.14
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
18.0% $2.05
$13.75
+250.8%
$4.18
+6.7%
28.0%+88.0%$3.92—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear
Party Animal
M4A1-S | Party Animal
40.0% $158.85
Ice Coaled
AWP | Ice Coaled
20.0% $24.72
Smoking Kills
MP7 | Smoking Kills
20.0% $19.40
Mirror Mosaic
Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic
20.0% $16.72
$158.85
+114.6%
$75.71
+2.3%
40.0%+91.8%$74.03—
FS

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