The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Red Wing
1x $0.13
Caged
2x $0.14
Sky Mandala
2x $0.34
Fraise Crane
3x $0.35
Warm Blooded
1x $0.54
Earth Mandala
1x $0.70
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $9.85
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $2.14
Liquidation
6.0% $1.36
Cat Fight
6.0% $0.80
Angel Eyes
6.0% $0.74
Ocular
6.0% $0.73
Max Win
$9.85 (+172.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.46 (+23.1%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+110.4%
Cost
$3.62
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.62
Ask Price EV $4.46 (+23.1%)
Bid Price EV $3.24 (-10.4%)
Ask Profit $0.84 (+23.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.38 (-10.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.21 (+33.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.84
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.38
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $9.85 (+172.1%)
Worst Case $0.66 (-81.7%)
Volatility +110.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%
Avg Win +$6.23
Avg Loss -$2.07
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.66 (-81.7%)
Std Dev $3.99
Avg Norm Float 0.5587
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 141h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 01S //TOTAL COST $3.62 //ASK PRICE EV $4.46 //BID PRICE EV $3.24 //ASK PROFIT $0.84 (+23.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.38 (-10.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +110.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
35.0%
$9.85
+$6.23
+172.1%
$6.64
+$3.02
+83.4%
$3.21
32.6%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$2.14
-$1.48
-40.8%
$1.99
-$1.63
-45.0%
$0.15
7.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.36
-$2.26
-62.4%
$1.17
-$2.45
-67.7%
$0.19
14.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.80
-$2.82
-77.8%
$0.66
-$2.96
-81.8%
$0.14
17.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.74
-$2.88
-79.6%
$0.63
-$2.99
-82.6%
$0.11
14.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.73
-$2.89
-79.7%
$0.62
-$3.00
-82.9%
$0.11
15.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.66
-$2.96
-81.7%
$0.64
-$2.98
-82.3%
$0.02
3.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.3910759999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 9.8505,
"optimistic_value": 9.77,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.3910759999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.1420000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:04:34.742372Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.55868,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 0.74,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T20:59:55.865803Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.55868,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 1.3605,
"optimistic_value": 1.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 1.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:14.514541Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.55868,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 0.8035,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T16:04:54.060260Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.55868,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 0.7334999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:23:37.864769Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.55868,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 0.664,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:28:53.193272Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_88dc35ec7900f3d9c2e51c02",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "499479989896194637",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:55.020944Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "492724590626396097",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:37.496775Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "516368488725636998",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:46.541963Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "503983589619270235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:27.433717Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "492724590626378025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:25.541051Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789729082221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:25.541051Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:27.433717Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "519746188258624796",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:21.084633Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494976390476381946",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:56.079211Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "518620288313571268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:57.798287Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Ocular 6.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 6.0% $1.07 | $13.33 +86.9% | $9.30 +30.5% | 70.0% | +65.3% | $7.13 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Liquidation 6.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 6.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 6.0% $2.14 Ocular 6.0% $2.05 | $26.79 +68.7% | $18.97 +19.4% | 70.0% | +60.1% | $15.88 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Ocular 10.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 10.0% $1.07 | $13.33 +149.1% | $7.13 +33.2% | 50.0% | +97.1% | $5.35 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Ocular 8.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 8.0% $1.07 | $12.78 +108.1% | $8.05 +31.1% | 60.0% | +79.5% | $6.14 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Ocular 14.0% $1.19 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Continuum 14.0% $1.08 | $12.78 +238.9% | $4.88 +29.4% | 44.0% | +126.1% | $3.77 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 10.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.14 Ocular 16.0% $2.05 | $13.33 +189.1% | $5.10 +10.6% | 36.0% | +88.1% | $4.61 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 5.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.14 Ocular 18.0% $2.05 | $12.78 +225.9% | $4.14 +5.5% | 28.0% | +84.8% | $3.92 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Party Animal  40.0% $158.85 Ice Coaled  20.0% $24.72 Smoking Kills  20.0% $19.40 Mirror Mosaic  20.0% $17.23 | $158.85 +116.3% | $75.81 +3.2% | 40.0% | +92.4% | $73.45 | — |