The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Memorial
3x $0.13
Sure Grip
1x $0.14
Yeti Camo
3x $0.23
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.30
Royal Baroque
1x $0.38
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
30.0% $6.93
Royal Guard
30.0% $1.14
Serpent Strike
8.0% $0.77
Control
8.0% $0.77
Tosai
8.0% $0.74
Wave Breaker
8.0% $0.65
Max Win
$6.93 (+196.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.71 (+15.6%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+118.5%
Cost
$2.34
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.34
Ask Price EV $2.71 (+15.6%)
Bid Price EV $2.30 (-1.6%)
Ask Profit $0.37 (+15.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.04 (-1.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.40 (+17.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.37
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.04
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $6.93 (+196.2%)
Worst Case $0.62 (-73.5%)
Volatility +118.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$4.59
Avg Loss -$1.45
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.62 (-73.5%)
Std Dev $2.77
Avg Norm Float 0.4477
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 151h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 00M 00S //TOTAL COST $2.34 //ASK PRICE EV $2.71 //BID PRICE EV $2.30 //ASK PROFIT $0.37 (+15.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.04 (-1.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +118.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$6.93
+$4.59
+196.2%
$5.76
+$3.42
+146.2%
$1.17
16.9%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$1.14
-$1.20
-51.3%
$1.07
-$1.27
-54.3%
$0.07
6.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.77
-$1.57
-66.9%
$0.66
-$1.68
-71.8%
$0.11
14.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.77
-$1.57
-67.1%
$0.66
-$1.68
-71.8%
$0.11
14.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.74
-$1.60
-68.4%
$0.69
-$1.65
-70.5%
$0.05
6.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.65
-$1.69
-72.4%
$0.57
-$1.77
-75.6%
$0.08
11.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.62
-$1.72
-73.5%
$0.59
-$1.75
-74.8%
$0.03
4.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.33581249999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.931,
"optimistic_value": 6.84,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 5.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.26865,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.139,
"optimistic_value": 1.09,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:34.957368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.2552175,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 0.774,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:42.543846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.35775001125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 0.77,
"optimistic_value": 0.77,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T06:54:02.871108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.44775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 0.6205,
"optimistic_value": 0.61,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 0.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:18.990158Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.42560831475,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 0.647,
"optimistic_value": 0.64,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:35.296170Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.31342499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 0.74,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:41:56.863424Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8678d97cc4c713fe679ac67d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "524249840859076095",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:23.208111Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "507361342333951621",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:11.426194Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "506235223785210480",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:23.208111Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "499479937453450165",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:23.208111Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "520872141037862616",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:59.705610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "529879340431980696",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:59.705610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "514116688950783354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:59.705610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "511864941881716089",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:54.342768Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:54.342768Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "525375688037571919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:54.821901Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.35 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.49 Tosai 8.0% $1.30 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $18.08 +217.7% | $7.43 +30.6% | 30.0% | +122.0% | $5.69 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.57 Tosai 8.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 8.0% $1.80 Control 8.0% $1.67 | $38.92 +176.4% | $16.82 +19.5% | 30.0% | +103.4% | $14.08 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.14 Serpent Strike 8.0% $0.77 Tosai 8.0% $0.74 Control 8.0% $0.70 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.69 | $6.93 +204.0% | $2.71 +18.8% | 30.0% | +118.9% | $2.28 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.35 Serpent Strike 14.0% $1.42 Tosai 14.0% $1.28 Rising Sun 14.0% $0.79 Control 14.0% $0.77 | $18.08 +477.5% | $4.21 +34.5% | 30.0% | +188.0% | $3.13 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.35 Serpent Strike 12.0% $1.48 Tosai 12.0% $1.35 Rising Sun 12.0% $0.79 Control 12.0% $0.77 | $18.08 +344.1% | $5.30 +30.1% | 40.0% | +157.7% | $4.07 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.35 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.49 Tosai 6.0% $1.30 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $18.08 +167.4% | $8.50 +25.8% | 35.0% | +103.3% | $6.76 | — |
The Fever Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.57 Tosai 2.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 2.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 2.0% $1.80 Control 2.0% $1.67 | $38.92 +100.5% | $23.89 +23.1% | 45.0% | +70.0% | $19.41 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.48 Tosai 4.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 4.0% $1.77 Control 4.0% $1.67 | $38.92 +114.9% | $21.50 +18.7% | 40.0% | +78.5% | $18.11 | — |