The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Resupply
1x $0.51
PC-GRN
1x $0.52
Mockingbird
1x $1.74
Sure Grip
1x $2.01
Royal Baroque
4x $1.44
Yeti Camo
1x $1.91
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
30.0% $38.92
Royal Guard
30.0% $13.57
Rising Sun
8.0% $9.18
Wave Breaker
8.0% $8.80
Control
8.0% $7.99
Tosai
8.0% $4.31
Max Win
$38.92 (+91.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.49 (-9.1%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+67.5%
Cost
$20.35
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.35
Ask Price EV $18.49 (-9.1%)
Bid Price EV $16.98 (-16.6%)
Ask Profit $-1.86 (-9.1%)
Bid Profit $-3.37 (-16.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.51 (+7.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.86
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.37
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+91.3%)
Worst Case $4.02 (-80.2%)
Volatility +67.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$18.57
Avg Loss -$10.62
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.02 (-80.2%)
Std Dev $13.73
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 103h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Minimal Wear
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Factory New
$1.74 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Factory New
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.91 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$4.65 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 59M 27S //TOTAL COST $20.35 //ASK PRICE EV $18.49 //BID PRICE EV $16.98 //ASK PROFIT $-1.86 (-9.1%) //BID PROFIT $-3.37 (-16.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +67.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$38.92
+$18.57
+91.3%
$34.38
+$14.03
+68.9%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$13.57
-$6.79
-33.3%
$13.24
-$7.11
-34.9%
$0.32
2.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$9.18
-$11.17
-54.9%
$8.80
-$11.55
-56.8%
$0.38
4.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$8.80
-$11.55
-56.8%
$8.74
-$11.61
-57.1%
$0.06
0.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$7.99
-$12.36
-60.7%
$7.97
-$12.38
-60.8%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.31
-$16.04
-78.8%
$4.30
-$16.05
-78.9%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.02
-$16.33
-80.2%
$3.88
-$16.47
-80.9%
$0.14
3.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.0522975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.041838,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.565,
"optimistic_value": 13.53,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:20.986312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0397461,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.02,
"optimistic_value": 3.88,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:11.997448Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.05571392135,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 7.9935,
"optimistic_value": 7.99,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 7.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:55.343395Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06973,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 9.1805,
"optimistic_value": 9.17,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 8.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:17.054530Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06628178176999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 8.798,
"optimistic_value": 8.77,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 8.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:38:25.778561Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.048811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 4.3134999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 4.31,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 4.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:26.653551Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8678d97cc4c713fe679ac67d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "516368488724860838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:32.805960Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "528753387758080125",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:34.294947Z"
},
{
"price": 1.74,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "493850543432056648",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:36.421940Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "511864888984899621",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:50.358530Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:04.070971Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:04.070971Z"
},
{
"price": 1.91,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "524249840858909847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:02.028646Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "527627540537511572",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:44.745483Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "640216044966789251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:48.573840Z"
},
{
"price": 4.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "503983423966579591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:48.573840Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.35 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.49 Tosai 8.0% $1.30 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $18.08 +217.7% | $7.43 +30.6% | 30.0% | +122.0% | $5.69 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.57 Tosai 8.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 8.0% $1.80 Control 8.0% $1.67 | $38.92 +176.4% | $16.82 +19.5% | 30.0% | +103.4% | $14.08 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.14 Serpent Strike 8.0% $0.77 Tosai 8.0% $0.74 Control 8.0% $0.70 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.69 | $6.93 +204.0% | $2.71 +18.8% | 30.0% | +118.9% | $2.28 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.14 Serpent Strike 8.0% $0.77 Control 8.0% $0.77 Tosai 8.0% $0.74 Wave Breaker 8.0% $0.65 | $6.93 +196.2% | $2.71 +15.6% | 30.0% | +115.8% | $2.34 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.35 Serpent Strike 14.0% $1.42 Tosai 14.0% $1.28 Rising Sun 14.0% $0.79 Control 14.0% $0.77 | $18.08 +477.5% | $4.21 +34.5% | 30.0% | +188.0% | $3.13 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.35 Serpent Strike 12.0% $1.48 Tosai 12.0% $1.35 Rising Sun 12.0% $0.79 Control 12.0% $0.77 | $18.08 +344.1% | $5.30 +30.1% | 40.0% | +157.7% | $4.07 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.35 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.49 Tosai 6.0% $1.30 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $18.08 +167.4% | $8.50 +25.8% | 35.0% | +103.3% | $6.76 | — |
The Fever Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.57 Tosai 2.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 2.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 2.0% $1.80 Control 2.0% $1.67 | $38.92 +100.5% | $23.89 +23.1% | 45.0% | +70.0% | $19.41 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.48 Tosai 4.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 4.0% $1.77 Control 4.0% $1.67 | $38.92 +114.9% | $21.50 +18.7% | 40.0% | +78.5% | $18.11 | — |